Somewhat drier air (aloft, anyway) moving into the area Tuesday will put an end to the soggy weather for a few days, though an isolated afternoon thunderstorm does remain possible. We start the day in the low 70s — the coolest start to a day since June 28 — before warming into the low 90s in the afternoon. While the drier air will provide for generally partly cloudy skies amidst a somewhat brilliant blue sky, it’ll still be fairly humid at the surface; expect heat indices to peak around 100° in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves by. All in all, though, we should have plenty of sun to help sop up this latest round of heavy rain.
We have another hot day ahead on Sunday before showers and thunderstorms erupt once more generally in the mid-to-late afternoon and evening hours. Lows in the mid-to-upper 70s will warm to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Ever-so-slightly drier air should keep heat indices below 105° and delay the onset of thunderstorms later than they started on Saturday. Storm coverage also should be a little thinner than Saturday as well. Still, a strong to severe storm can’t be totally ruled out, so stay alert for possible warnings, and just be ready to change outdoor plans to indoor ones if a thunderstorm approaches your area.
More showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday afternoon as a warm and humid atmosphere remains firmly in place across the area. Temperatures will warm to the low-to-mid-90s before storms start to kick up after convective temperatures are met. Shear is weak and instability is about average, but there will still be plenty of moisture to wring out of the atmosphere, so expect frequent lightning and heavy rain with the stronger of Thursday’s thunderstorms. There will be the risk for storms to anchor a bit and rain a lot in one spot as westerly flow aloft fights against an inland-moving seabreeze. (Daniel Island knows all about this, with several stations on the island recording 2-3″ of rain in a couple hours’ time.) A damaging wet microburst or two can’t be discounted either especially near where outflow boundaries collide. Once again, keep an ear out for warnings and take it easy on the commute.
One more round of coastal flooding is possible with the Thursday night high tide at 11:43 PM. Expect water levels between 7.1-7.3′ to produce some minor flooding generally between 9 PM-1 AM. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be issued. From there, the astronomical influences of the full moon will wane further, and while water levels may get close on Friday night, we should be done with this round of king tides.
We will not get to declare independence from hot weather this July 4th, that’s for sure: After a balmy start in the upper 70s, temperatures will once again head into the mid-90s in the afternoon with heat indices running between 105-110°. Once again, you’re going to want to make sure you’re getting plenty of water and getting in the shade at times. Headed to the beach? Definitely deploy the sunscreen with the UV index forecast to be at 11, in the “Extreme” category.
As we get further into the afternoon and the seabreeze begins to move inland, we’ll see showers and thunderstorms begin to fire in a reasonably unstable environment. A storm or two could be on the strong to even severe side with gusty winds the main concern. Regardless of severity, the lightning a thunderstorm produces makes them all dangerous. This is especially important on a big outdoors day like the Fourth. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!
Finally, there will be a risk for minor coastal flooding with high tide around 9:53 PM. This tide has already caused Folly Beach to cancel their fireworks, unfortunately, and may be problematic for other beach displays as well. Be ready to avoid flooded roadways an hour or two around high tide.
After the first 95° reading of the year on Wednesday, we’ll likely repeat that on Thursday, with plenty more 90s to come as we head into the holiday weekend. Downslope flow should once again keep dewpoints in the mid-60s, thus keeping heat indices in check as well. Expect partly cloudy skies — and as always, a shower can’t be totally discounted — but overall expect a rain-free, warm day.
A cold front will move through and stall out nearby on Tuesday, allowing drier air to mix into the area. This will largely suppress cloud cover and will help drive temperatures to the mid-90s in the afternoon; fortunately, the drier air mixing in will also keep dewpoints reasonably in check, so heat indices will only top out around 96°-98° or so.
A few thunderstorms will still be possible very early Tuesday morning, but widespread severe weather does not look to be an issue. Still, there’s a small chance you could be woken up overnight, especially the further north you go.
Sunday will be a much more traditional warm and somewhat muggy June day across the Lowcountry than we’ve felt for much of the month, really. We start the day in the low 70s before temperatures warm into the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Kick in some humidity and it’ll feel closer to 95° in the afternoon at peak heating. It looks quite unlikely that a shower or storm will develop, though it can never be totally ruled out in the summertime. Suspect it’ll be another day full of Instagram stories from the beach. Use that sunscreen as the UV index will be a solid 10.
Thursday will be another active weather day across the region as a warm front draped across SC interacts with low pressure aloft to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be on the strong side, with damaging wind gusts the main concern, though some hail can’t be ruled out either. Highs on Thursday top out in the mid-80s before storms get rolling once more. It won’t rain all day in any one spot, but when it does, it could be quite heavy. Keep rain gear handy, allow additional travel time, and keep an ear out for flood advisories as well.
Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for Tuesday and beyond as a Rex block (high pressure to the north, low pressure to the south) sets up across the area, feeding in plenty of moisture and sufficient forcing to keep things quite unsettled. Expect the day to start out in the upper 60s to around 70° before warming to about the mid-80s before storms get going. There’s the potential we could even be dealing with some showers and storms advancing through the area in the morning if some of the high-resolution guidance is correct, too, but the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive in the afternoon. Bottom line: Keep the rain gear handy throughout the day, and be patient getting to where you’re going.
We have another warm day in store for Sunday, though with a better shot at an afternoon or evening thunderstorm. We start the day in the low 70s before warming into the upper 80s with a little more humidity than we saw on Saturday. (Hopefully a little less smoke, too.) Temperatures could feel a little warmer, generally around 90° or so, when factoring in the humidity.
With a little more available moisture, so it goes with instability. We could see the seabreeze get a little more active than it did on Saturday across the area, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening hours. Not everyone sees storms, so don’t cancel plans — just be ready to move indoors if a thunderstorm approaches.
