We won’t have the best weather on Thanksgiving Day, unfortunately, as a strong cold front moves through the area. It’ll bring with it some gusty winds and eventually some showers and even a few thunderstorms as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. It’ll be a warm and humid day by late November standards, with lows in the upper 50s to around 60° yielding to the mid-70s in the afternoon. This could help provide sufficient instability within a fairly well-sheared airmass to produce a strong to severe thunderstorm or two as the front approaches, with damaging straight-line wind gusts the main concern. The timing for storms appears to be generally between about 2pm-9pm, progressing west-to-east. It’s possible not everyone will see a storm or even any rain, but we just need to keep an eye on the storms that do fire to make sure they behave.

Tuesday begins an occasionally unsettled period of weather that’ll last through early Black Friday as a series of fronts moves through the area. The first one, poised to move through Tuesday evening, won’t be terribly strong; it’ll kick up some cloud cover and maybe a few showers as well out ahead of it, but it won’t really affect the airmass all that much. We’ll start Tuesday in the low 50s, warming to the low to mid-70s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will surge back into the 60s for a brief period, but those will begin to fall by evening as the front moves by.

Thursday will kick off a stretch of below-normal temperatures that will continue into the first part of the weekend before we turn a little warmer for Sunday. We start Thursday in the mid-40s, but as cooler and drier air rushes into the area, producing some gusty winds at times, high temperatures will be limited to the low 60s at best despite full sunshine. This is closer to January normals than November normals — you’ll likely want to opt for some longer sleeves as a result, at least during the morning.

We’ve got another unseasonably warm day ahead Tuesday ahead of a front that will sweep through on Wednesday. Ahead of that front, we’ll see an increase in cloud cover, and eventually some shower activity later in the afternoon into the evening and overnight. Temperatures Tuesday start in the low to mid-50s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will keep the tides at bay, thankfully, and we should fall short of the coastal flooding threshold with the mid-morning high tide, with no coastal flooding expected for the next few days at least.

Thursday figures to be a somewhat wet day at times across the Lowcountry, starting with salt water flooding downtown and ending up with showers across much of the area by evening.

First, the salt water flooding: Water levels around 7.9′ MLLW are expected with the 6:07am high tide Thursday. This will produce fairly widespread coastal flooding in downtown Charleston, and should also affect Long Point Road and parking areas around Shem Creek in Mt. Pleasant. Expect numerous road closures early on in the commute, with improving conditions heading into 8-9am. Be alert to detours around the aforementioned road closures, and never cross through floodwaters even if a road is closed — remember, this is all going to be salt water and that is incredibly not good for your car’s undercarriage!

The risk for showers should, thankfully, miss the worst of the salt water flooding. It will begin to kick up around mid-morning to midday, with the best chance of showers on Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours. Rainfall amounts should generally stay under a half-inch in most spots, but locally higher amounts are possible where heavier showers develop. Temperatures start in the mid-50s, topping out in the mid-70s early in the afternoon.

A front swinging through tonight will help start a cooldown across the area that will bring temperatures more in line with where they should be for this point in the year. Lows on Tuesday start in the upper 50s to around 60°, with highs only heading to about the mid-70s despite mostly sunny skies. Drier air will be moving in throughout the day, especially as winds start to go around to the northeast, and it should overall feel pretty nice especially given the recent swampiness that’s characterized November thus far.

Rain continues on Thursday as northward-moving moisture from Hurricane Rafael interacts with a front. As far as average temperature goes, it’s going to be a particularly warm November day: expect to start the day in the upper 60s to around 70°, with highs topping out around 78° (largely governed by the expected rain). If it verifies, the low of 69° would be a new record warm low temperature for November 7, breaking the record of 68° set in 2018.

Rainfall totals should continue to climb across the area, with another 1-2″ possible across much of the metro overnight into Thursday evening. Expect the best chances for rain during the morning, with some scattering of the activity as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. Flooding doesn’t look to be a major concern here, but if training of rain does occur, some localized issues can’t be ruled out.

A few showers will be in the cards as we head to the polls for Election Day on Tuesday, but it won’t be a washout and should be minimally disruptive to voting. We start the day about 15° above normal with lows in the mid-60s, warming to 80° in the afternoon. We’ll see some peeks of sun from time to time as well. Go out and make your voice heard!

Expect quiet weather for Halloween this go-around as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature across the Lowcountry. It’ll be a mild one this year as temperatures start in the low 60s, warming to the low 80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The only concern may be if costumes run a little warm!

We’ll keep this going into the weekend. Maybe a shower Friday, but otherwise quiet weather continues with upper 70s to low 80s for highs each afternoon.

A surface trough will push inland Tuesday, and this could spread a few showers ashore throughout the day. Rain chances are pretty small, though, given the continued dry conditions, and any rain that does fall probably will not amount to a whole heck of a lot. Rain chances diminish by evening. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will begin to trend back above normal, with upper 50s in the morning yielding to highs in the upper 70s in the afternoon.