Much-needed rain will continue to fall for a good bit of today across the Charleston metro as a cold front slides eastward across the state. Said front will help to keep temperatures pretty steady-state throughout the day — we aren’t too far off from the NWS forecast high as of this writing (9am Thursday). No severe weather is expected, but we may yet hear a few more rumbles of thunder.
Rain will gradually taper off as we get into tonight, but showers may linger into early Friday morning. If you’ve got outdoor plans this evening, you may yet want to execute the indoor plan just to keep folks dry.
An unsettled period begins on Wednesday as our next storm system approaches the area. This storm system could aid in producing a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon.
A warm front will cross the area overnight, and as a result, Wednesday starts out with lows bottoming out just around 60° around the area. The Gulf will be open for business with a plume of warm, moist air overspreading the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This should keep a fair bit of cloud cover around, but despite this, temperatures could still approach 80° in the afternoon, particularly if we get some peeks of sun mixed in during the day.
The morning appears to be dry, but it isn’t out of the question to see some showers try to get going ahead of the main event. With that in mind, though, the vast majority of guidance members are keeping things dry until the afternoon. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms could arrive in the form of a squall line in the evening. Instability should be modest at best, but ample wind shear could be enough to produce a few damaging wind gusts if storms can stay organized. Hail and even a tornado can’t be ruled out, either. As usual for our neck of the woods, the available instability will modulate the severe threat. Most of you shouldn’t see any severe weather tomorrow, but in case it does threaten, you’ll want to know about it: have reliable ways to hear watches and warnings, and be ready to move to a safe place if a warning is issued for your location.
Rain should continue well into Thursday as the front and moisture hangs around before finally moving away early Friday. Regardless of any severe weather, the rain will be quite nice to wash away some pollen and help chip away at the drought. The reward will be pretty sweet, too: a gorgeous Friday and the weekend, with fair weather continuing well into the following work week.
High pressure will continue to slip offshore overnight into Tuesday, allowing warmer and a little more humid air to keep working its way into the area. We stay rain-free on Tuesday, though, despite an increase in cloud cover. Highs top out in the mid-70s. Perhaps it won’t be the most picturesque day like we’ve had over the past couple days, but it will certainly be another decently nice day across the area.
Attention then turns to Wednesday, where there remains a risk for some severe storms that’s largely conditional on the timing of a cold front coming through the area. We’ll have the shear in place, but once again the question is instability and whether it will be available by the time forcing for ascent arrives. If the front gets closer earlier in the day, that could provide the necessary trigger for thunderstorms to develop and take advantage of that energy (though the amount of energy that would be available doesn’t look overly impressive). If it’s later in the day, though, we’ll see that instability begin to wane; as a result, the severe threat could be tempered somewhat. We should get some more clarity on the timing issues tomorrow; for now, prepare for a wet Wednesday with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Hail, high winds, and a tornado are all on the table if in fact storms can get cranking, but as we know from recent days, that can be a big if. Stay tuned…
After a somewhat confounding weather day on Saturday, Sunday’s forecast is much higher confidence with high pressure building in behind a cold front that will swing through overnight. This’ll cool things off nicely, with highs topping out around 70° under sunny skies and low humidity to boot. It’ll be a nice day to get out for a walk or get some yard work done. This will kick off a stretch of a couple days of quiet weather before our next storm system arrives by mid-week, bringing us another shot at showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the work week. (We still can very much use the rain.)
We’ve gotten off to a fairly benign start here in the Lowcountry, but that may change later today as a cold front approaches. Temperatures as of this writing are in the low 70s already with dewpoints in the low to mid-60s, pretty ripe for this time of year. Cloud cover has ticked up somewhat in part due to anvil blow-off from some thunderstorms already firing in southeast Georgia. Winds have also ticked up some, with a gust to 23 MPH recorded at the airport as of the 10am observation.
High temperatures across the Charleston metro should top out in the mid-to-upper 70s this afternoon before the cold front gets closer to the area. It’s this surface feature, currently moving across Georgia and into upstate South Carolina, which should provide the needed lift to allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Wind shear and instability will not be lacking, and with some capping in place limiting more widespread development to start, storms could initially start off as supercells, increasing the severe weather threat. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging straight-line wind gusts and large hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, particularly where storms interact with the seabreeze, which is forecast to be near the coast for much of the day. Given strong SW winds keeping the seabreeze pinned to the coast, it is unlikely that cooler waters will have a significant impact on storm strength.
Given the initially isolated nature of these thunderstorms and the timing of the cap breaking, it’s going to be very tough to pinpoint who exactly will see storms and when. General thinking, according to NWS, is that the greatest risk of thunderstorms will generally run between 3-9 PM. Trying to pin down too much more detail may be foolhardy without clairvoyance beyond what the science can provide.
Today’s advice is familiar: Stay close to reliable, redundant weather warning sources, one of which should not be your smartphone. NOAA Weather Radio and broadcast stations are two great ways to fulfill this recommendation. Not everyone will see severe weather today — perhaps, deity of your choice willing, none of us will! — but if it does threaten your location, you’ll want to be prepared to receive that warning and take action on it by having a safe space indoors, away from windows.
After some beneficial rain so far this Wednesday, we’ll see shower and storm chances taper off this evening as low pressure lifts northeast and away from the area. There is still the risk of a strong to severe thunderstorm for the next few hours (generally through sundown), so we’ll want to be keeping an eye on the radar for the next little bit.
We take a break from rain on Thursday with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for St. Patrick’s Day. Temperatures will rise from the mid-50s in the morning to the mid-70s in the afternoon, and dewpoints in the 50s will make for a good middle ground between “too dry” and “too muggy.” Overall, not a bad St. Patrick’s Day, where the beer will hopefully be more green than the radar.
We’ll warm to near 80° on Friday with increasing cloud cover as another storm system moves through the Mid-South on its way to the Mid-Atlantic. Rain chances look to hold off until late, though. A few thunderstorms will be possible overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, and there once again is the potential for one or two of those to produce damaging wind gusts if conditions line up just right. We’ll keep an eye on how this evolves as nocturnal severe weather is, well, sub-optimal.
Slight shower and storm chances persist into Saturday, after which a cold front will come through and help deliver a rather beautiful Sunday with decreasing cloud cover and highs in the low 70s.
We’ll return to the 70s tomorrow despite increasing cloud cover as high pressure continues to extend offshore at the surface, pumping in some warmer air on the back end of its circulation. No frost or freeze issues are expected Tuesday morning as temperatures look to stay well in the 40s in the morning.
We’ll be watching an upper low as it cuts off around the Arklatex tonight and slowly rumbles through Mississippi tomorrow. This will help to spin up surface low pressure which will traverse the Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of this low, moisture influx will increase, hence the increasing cloud cover. A few showers will be possible after sunset Tuesday as a coastal trough develops.
The bulk of the rain, though, looks to fall on Wednesday as the surface and upper lows move by the area. We get a break on Thursday before another storm system swings by Friday. Temperatures will continue to run above normal for this point in the year, with mid-70s expected by mid-week.
After today’s rather impressive cold frontal passage, an Arctic airmass settles into the area tonight into Sunday. A Freeze Warning is in effect through Sunday morning as lows head into the 20s across much of the metro area. Regardless of where you are, I’d take precautions with your plants tonight with freezing temperatures possible all the way to the coast.
Sunday won’t warm too terribly much. Highs will only top out in the low 50s despite full sunshine as the abnormally cold and dry airmass dominates our weather. It’ll be exceptionally dry, too, with relative humidity values dropping below 25% in the afternoon. Jackets and lip balm will be important on Sunday!
The good news is that this is March, and this will be relatively short-lived — we’ll be back in the 70s by Tuesday after one more light freeze possibly Sunday night into Monday morning.
Saturday could be a bit of a wild day of weather across the Lowcountry. We’ll start with a strong cold front bringing a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in the morning, and we’ll finish with Arctic air rushing into the area, leading to a hard freeze for many of us Sunday morning.
A warm front lifts north of us tonight, putting us squarely in the warm sector of a storm system that will approach the area tomorrow before stalling out nearby Thursday. While we reside in that warm sector tomorrow, good turning of winds with height and decent instability will promote a risk for thunderstorms, a few of which could become severe. The main severe weather risk will be from damaging wind gusts, but if a supercell or two can get going, that will come along with an elevated risk for hail or even a tornado. Suffice to say, you’ll want to stay close to reliable and redundant sources of severe weather information tomorrow afternoon into the evening. NOAA Weather Radio is a great way to get alerts, and if it is enabled to do so, your phone can automatically alert you to tornado warnings, no app required.
Due to the risk of severe weather, the statewide tornado drill originally scheduled for Wednesday morning as part of South Carolina Severe Weather and Flood Safety Week has been moved to Friday at 9am.
We will have a lull in the severe weather threat on Thursday, but expect plenty of showers and even a few thunderstorms to linger as the front remains stalled out close by. Another risk of severe weather is possible late Friday into early Saturday morning as another front approaches the area. This front will bring cold high pressure for later Saturday into Sunday, with the risk of a freeze on Sunday morning.
