We’ll continue our warming trend on Tuesday ahead of a weak front that’ll come through later Wednesday. After starting around 50° thanks to clear skies and light winds, we’ll warm well into the upper 70s in the afternoon. We should see mostly sunny skies for a good bit of the day, with some higher clouds beginning to thicken later on. Rain-free conditions continue, and it should overall be another good day of weather across the area.
The only weather hazard of note will be the risk for some minor coastal flooding around the 8:20 AM high tide. Right now, water levels are forecast to peak around 7.1-7.3′ in the harbor, which will be enough to perhaps close a couple of the more vulnerable roads on the Charleston peninsula (such as around Hagood and Fishburne as well as near the City Market).
Some of us are going to get off to a frosty start on Thursday as temperatures fall into the mid-30s overnight, perhaps threatening the record low of 34° set in 1981. A Frost Advisory will be in effect from 4-9am for inland Berkeley and Dorchester counties as this is where temperatures are most likely going to be low enough to support frost formation. I don’t know that I could totally rule some patchy frost out a little further eastward as well in more sheltered spots. Bring in plants and pets tonight to be safe.
From there, full sunshine will begin to modify the chilly airmass that’s been in place over the past couple days. Highs Thursday afternoon will still run well below climatology for this point in October, but will be a few degrees warmer than we felt Wednesday, topping out in the mid-to-upper 60s. (More on Wednesday’s temperatures in a sec.)
A cold front will move through overnight, ushering in the first really solid chill of the season for the Lowcountry. Morning lows will bottom out in the mid-50s, while cold advection within a northwesterly breeze will only allow temperatures to rise to the mid-60s in the afternoon despite almost full sunshine. These high temperatures will run some 10-15° below normal for this point in October, matching the very cool high temperatures we experienced during Hurricane Ian at the end of September (minus the hurricane part).
Overnight showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off as we head toward daybreak Thursday. We may deal with some slick roads in the morning, though, so be ready for that possibility for your commute. The good news: We’re done with the recent round of tidal flooding induced by the full moon and onshore winds, so no concerns there.
The cold front will be moving through the state throughout the day and won’t clear the area until after sunset Thursday. Ahead of the front, a few showers and thunderstorms could redevelop as temperatures recover into the low 80s in the afternoon. Drier air punching into the area will modulate that threat somewhat, but don’t be surprised to see a shower or storm in your neck of the woods in the afternoon.
Not much weather to write home about for Tuesday as we get one more mostly dry day in ahead of a cold front which should bring the most substantial rain since Ian to the area for later Wednesday into Thursday. Cloud cover blanketing the area will help keep lows elevated to around 60° to start the day. Breezy onshore winds and continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures capped in the mid-70s. Much as we saw today, there is a small chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, but these won’t be horribly disruptive and should be short-lived if they do end up firing.
Another round of minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible a couple hours around the predicted 9:40am high tide. Be ready to use alternate routes in case of flooded or closed roads in downtown Charleston.
Thursday will be another nice weather day across the area with a seasonable chill to start and comfortable warmth to finish. Lows will once again start in the low-to-mid-50s away from the warmer coastline, but plentiful and virtually unobscured sunshine combined with winds generally out of the southwest will help temperatures reach the low 80s in the afternoon, right on the nose for early-October climatology. Should be a nice day for getting out and about!
If you liked Monday’s temperatures but would prefer more sun, Tuesday will have you covered. Skies are clearing as I write this post, and we will have a much brighter day ahead. More clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 40s across much of the metro area away from the immediate coast. The NWS forecast will be around 49°; if that verifies, that would be the first sub-50° low since it was 46° on May 10. Temperatures will rebound only to about 70° despite nearly full sunshine as we sit on the southern periphery of a deep trough of low pressure aloft and a northerly breeze keeps cool air filtering in.
The only potential snag in tomorrow’s weather will be the potential for a little coastal flooding with the mid-afternoon high tide. We might see some salt water coming out of drains around Lockwood Dr. as well as on Hagood and Fishburne near the Joe and Johnson Hagood Stadium. However, a widespread tidal flooding event is not expected.
So first and foremost: There will be no hurricane this week. Quite the opposite, in fact: it should be a very nice week of weather, with a little something for everyone — sweater fans will love Monday in particular, while by mid-week we’ll be comfortably warm before a dry cold front knocks temperatures back over the weekend.
Cloud cover will be persistent on Monday (with a tiny chance of a shower), keeping temperatures perhaps limited to the upper 60s. Cloud cover should scour out by Tuesday as a warming trend takes hold under sunny skies. We’ll be in the upper 70s to low 80s by Thursday and Friday ahead of the frontal passage. The front will be moisture-starved as it passes through on Saturday, likely only being able to yield an increase in cloud cover for the weekend, but we look to remain rain-free. Saturday looks to run a little warmer than Sunday right now, but both days should be excellent to get outdoors.
The only weather concern of note will be the potential for minor coastal flooding with the afternoon high tides. The moon will be at perigee (passing closer to Earth) approaching a full moon on October 9, which will help increase the water levels during times of high tide. Northerly wind directions will help keep these tides from getting out of hand, though as high pressure wedges southward over the weekend and winds turn more northeasterly, we may see some higher water levels. Stay tuned as those details work out.
Wednesday will likely represent the last really decent weather day across the Lowcountry before winds begin to turn much more breezy as Ian approaches the area starting Thursday. (A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect, too.) It’ll be a good day to bring things in from outdoors, check on your batteries, flashlights, and weather radios, and if in a flood-prone area, sandbag property appropriately if needed. We’re in for what might be a tricky few days…but it’s nothing we won’t be able to handle, either.
It’s gonna feel a lot cooler Wednesday, that’s for sure, as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds will turn northeasterly and be gusty at times, with gusts around 25-30 MPH possible, higher closer to the coast. Temperatures will start out in the upper 50s and stay cool, with mid-70s at best with thickening cloud cover ahead of Ian blanketing the skies. We stay rain-free thanks to a deep layer of dry air closer to the surface, however.
Minor coastal flooding will be a concern with the 10:07am and 10:17pm high tides as the northeasterly flow around high pressure to the north drives water levels higher. This could be enough to close a couple roads in the more vulnerable areas, such as around Gadsden Creek. Major disruptions to travel aren’t anticipated, however.
We’ll turn cooler tomorrow as a front gets through tonight. Expect lows to run a few degrees lower in the mid-60s (a touch warmer near the coast where water temperatures still hover around 80°). Highs will get to the low 80s under a mix of clouds and sun as high pressure wedges in from the northeast. It’ll be a good day to get prep work done ahead of Ian, which continues to look to produce impacts in the Lowcountry later this week.
