Showers return to the forecast on Thursday as a cold front moves into the area. We’ll get off to a comfortable start, with temperatures in the low-to-mid-50s to start the day. The front should show up later in the day, and we’ll get some rain-free time in, warming to the mid-70s before showers arrive. Model guidance brings the rain into the area by mid-afternoon and gets it through the area about 2-3 hours later. The rain won’t amount to much; about a quarter-inch at most. It’ll turn breezy as the front moves by, with gusts 20-30 MPH possible. Once it’s through, we’ll start to cool down heading into the overnight.
The main weather story for Sunday will be the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in association with a squall line moving through the area generally from the mid-morning through mid-afternoon hours. Damaging wind gusts will be the overriding concern, but a tornado or two cannot be discounted, nor can some sporadic hail reports be discounted as well.
We’ll see a few more clouds on Thursday as a shortwave trough swings through aloft, but other than a slight downtick in temperatures compared to Wednesday’s highs in the low 80s, we’ll remain seasonably warm as surface high pressure remains anchored in the Atlantic for one more day. We’ll keep an eye on the moisture profiles to make sure that no showers try to overachieve with the upper-level energy moving by, but the expectation is that it’ll just be too dry for much more than the enhanced cloud cover.
Much more sunshine is in store for Tuesday as low pressure pulls away from the area at the surface and aloft. This will help warm things up, too — after a mid-40s start, downslope winds out of the northwest and the aforementioned sunshine will push highs to the low 70s in the afternoon, a couple degrees above normal for March 11. Overall, a much nicer day than Monday (weather-wise, anyway).
After a windy and occasionally rainy Wednesday that, thankfully, didn’t result in any severe weather, we will turn much cooler and sunnier for Thursday. Temperatures start in the low 40s, warming to just the low 60s in the afternoon with breezy conditions featuring gusts 25-30 MPH at times, particularly in the morning through the early afternoon as high pressure builds in. We’ll see that high pressure settle in a little more later Thursday night, and that will help winds go a little calmer and start to cool us off for potential frost and freeze issues inland for Thursday overnight into Friday morning.
After a sunny but chilly Monday, temperatures begin to warm up ahead of Wednesday’s cold front as we get into Tuesday. We’ll also see cloud cover begin to thicken up as well, and there could even be a few showers at times as Atlantic moisture builds in. We start the day in the low 40s — about 10° warmer than the frosty start we felt on Monday morning — and head back to the low 70s in the afternoon. It’s going to be breezy as well — winds will generally run between 10-15 MPH, but could gust to 20-25 MPH at times.
After reaching 79° on Wednesday, some 13° above normal for this point in the year, we’re back in the mid-to-upper 70s on Thursday but with some increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front. Moisture ahead of the front won’t be the best, but a few showers will be possible later Thursday into the overnight as it gets by, so be aware for the potential for a little rain. It’ll also be a bit of a breezy day, with winds 15-20 MPH possible out of the southwest particularly in the afternoon.
A cloudy and cool Monday will give way to a much sunnier and warmer Tuesday. After starting in the low 40s, expect highs to peak in the mid-70s in the afternoon, several degrees warmer than the 68° we peaked at on Monday. This is well above normal for the end of February; the normal high for February 25 is 66°.
Clouds will thin out throughout the day Thursday as colder and drier air pours into the area from the northwest. We’ll start the day around freezing, warming to just the mid-40s in the afternoon despite the increasingly sunny skies. The last time we had a high temperature this cold was January 24, when the high was only 47° courtesy of 2″ of snow still on the ground from the 1/22 snowstorm. (The record cold high temperature of 39°, set in 2015, will remain intact, thankfully.)
