We’ll put scattered showers into the weather mix for tomorrow as a trough of low pressure sets up offshore, perhaps allowing a little rain to head up into our neck of the woods primarily in the morning to midday timeframe (with slight chances in the afternoon). Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s in the afternoon.
Tuesday night, a warm front will lift north of the area, which will prevent temperatures from falling much below the low 60s as we get into Wednesday morning. Highs will top out in the low 80s on Wednesday afternoon, with the risk of a few thunderstorms coming along for the ride as we are well into the warm sector of our next storm system. A couple strong to severe storms are not out of the question, either, so we’ll want to watch that potential. After the front gets through, the bottom falls out of the mercury, but at least the sun stays out into the weekend!
After two days of record warmth, we look once again to approach record highs ahead of a cold front. The NWS forecast high of 87° is one degree off the record of 88° set in 2017 — it’ll be close.
We are already seeing a few downpours pop off in the I-95 corridor near St. George and Holly Hill this morning. However, the better rain chances arrive this afternoon and evening as a line of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front approaches the area. I’d expect thunderstorms to be approaching the I-95 corridor around 4-6 PM, with the line — perhaps in a more broken, weakened state — moving through the Charleston metro area by early to mid-evening. Our risk for severe weather today is low, but not necessarily zero, as a couple storms could still produce damaging wind gusts as they move by (especially if they arrive early enough to interact with the seabreeze circulation). Water temperatures remain generally in the mid-60s, which should lend a stabilizing influence as the storms approach the coast.
As always, keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day as arrival time estimates are fine-tuned and we see how trends evolve with the strength of these storms.
After temperatures overachieved today, we look to continue remaining a little warmer than normal as we go into Wednesday. Ridging aloft will continue to build over the next couple days, and by the end of the week we should be getting into the 80s ahead of a cold front that swings through Sunday. We look to remain rain-free through Friday, when a weakening cold front gets into the Carolinas and eventually stalls out and falls apart. While a strong storm or two can’t be ruled out, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
As mentioned earlier, another, stronger cold front will swing through Sunday with a few thunderstorms, taking us back to closer to normal temperatures for Monday and beyond.
Cloud cover will look to be a bit more persistent on Tuesday, once again keeping temperatures right around 70° in the afternoon with low pressure stuck offshore, roughly about where the NC and SC border would be. Conditions should remain rain-free throughout the day, and we should get the sun peeking in and out as well.
Another round of rain is expected overnight tonight as an upper-level disturbance moves through, with isolated showers possible during the day Wednesday.
The high pressure wedge won the day today, keeping temperatures well below forecasted levels in the low to mid-60s in the Charleston metro, while Moncks Corner struggled to 50°. It appears that the wedge will once again put a dent in temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the upper 60s in the Charleston metro perhaps being a bit generous if this afternoon’s high-resolution model runs have anything to say about it. Bottom line: Don’t misplace the light jacket tomorrow, preferably the green one given St. Patrick’s Day.
While we’ll be relatively calm tomorrow, a severe weather outbreak is expected from western Tennessee to Alabama as a strong storm system moves across the Mid-South. This storm system will head eastward and play a potentially major part in our weather on Thursday.
Well, it was nice while it lasted, but the rain is back overnight tonight into Tuesday as energy aloft as well as a surface low ripple along a stationary front to keep shower chances in the forecast, especially as we get into the evening hours. Expect the wedge front to retreat northward across the area during the day, with temperatures heading into the mid-70s in the afternoon in the metro area. 70s become a little less certain the further north and west you go; that will be governed strongly by just how far north the wedge front can retreat throughout the day. Models indicate a steep drop in temperatures across the front, potentially keeping areas near I-95 some 10-20° cooler than coastal areas.
A thunderstorm or two can’t be ruled out as we get into Tuesday afternoon and evening. A sampling of model soundings around the area suggest that a stronger storm or two may be in the cards, so we’ll want to keep an eye on this. However, no widespread severe weather is expected Tuesday.
Our weather winning streak continues into Tuesday, with warmer temperatures in the afternoon after one more overnight frost. Cover up sensitive plants once again tonight and make sure your pets are in a warm, safe place.
Expect mostly sunny skies with perhaps a few clouds sneaking in during the afternoon. Temperatures will rise to around 70°, making it a fairly lovely — and climatologically normal — March afternoon. Hope you can take advantage!
It was a weird Saturday. (More on that in a minute.) Fortunately, Sunday will restore order to the forecast as clouds dissipate overnight in response to high pressure building back into the area. Despite full, unencumbered sunshine, we’ll stay quite chilly tomorrow, with the high of 57° coming in well under the normal of 68° for this point in March. Frost and even a light freeze will be possible overnight Sunday into Monday, too, so be ready to protect plants and pets.
But yes, no surprise rain or ice pellets. For real this time. And thankfully (for our psyches, anyway), we look predominantly dry well into next week and perhaps beyond.
Expect a soaking rain to pick up overnight and last through early Wednesday afternoon. Rain totals should end up being around 1-2″ across much of the Tri-County with locally heavier amounts. If there’s a piece of good news in this, right now it appears that the heavier rain is going to miss our next two times of high tide (10:33 PM Tuesday, 10:49 AM Wednesday). Salt water flooding remains a concern around times of high tide, though, with a Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight as the 10:33 PM high tide will approach 7′ in the harbor. If rain does pick up around that time, there could be more trouble on area roads, so be aware of that possibility through tomorrow.
Low pressure will depart the area Wednesday afternoon, which will shut the rain off and allow skies to begin to clear out. Depending on the timing of the clearing, we should see temperatures rise to the mid-to-upper 50s in the afternoon, setting up a rather nice Thursday with clear skies and highs in the mid-60s.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: We’re looking at a mostly cloudy day with occasional showers for Tuesday. Alas, March throws it back to mid-February tomorrow as temperatures only top out in the low 50s in the afternoon as cold air damming develops in the wake of this evening’s frontal passage. It won’t rain all day, but you’ll want to keep the gear close by in case you find yourselves in some showers. We’ll stay in the muck through Wednesday, with clearing developing on Thursday, but temperatures will remain well below normal for the rest of the week.
