We hit 74° at the airport on Monday, and we’ll likely do the same — if not even running slightly warmer — on Tuesday as high pressure aloft and at the surface remains in control. We’ll likely start the day with another round of fog, and it might be dense in spots as well, so be ready to allow a little extra time to get to where you’re going. (Unfortunately, the fog horns near the coast might be pretty loud, too.) Lows in the mid-50s — about 15° above normal for mid-December — will warm quickly into the mid-70s once the fog dissipates in the morning. We’ll stay rain-free for one more day, with partly cloudy skies expected. Should be a nice day to spend a little time outside if you can!
A cold front passed through earlier Wednesday will make Thursday a much cooler day despite plenty of sunshine. We’ll start the day in the mid-30s — with temperatures possibly dipping toward freezing in more rural areas — and warm to just the mid-50s in the afternoon despite all the sunshine. The wind won’t be whipping as much Thursday, with speeds generally around 5 MPH expected out of the north and northwest. Overall, it’ll be a seasonably cool day, with temperatures running several degrees below normal.
More cloud cover (with a few peeks of sun, especially early) is expected on Tuesday, but despite this, warm, humid air will continue to pump into the area ahead of a slow-moving cold front. This will make for a very mild day, with lows in the upper 50s warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon — some 10-12° above normal for December 10. We’ll also see the risk for some showers from time to time, but we’ll get rain-free time, too, especially midday.
A warmer day is on tap Thursday as we sit between one Arctic-sourced high pressure system moving away and another approaching the area that’ll chill us right back out for Friday. We start the day in the upper 30s to around 40°, which will run much warmer than we ran on Wednesday morning after lows in the 20s for much of the area (and even some upper teens in northern Berkeley County!). Temperatures will top out in the low 60s in the afternoon as gusty southwest to westerly winds (perhaps approaching 30 MPH at times) ahead of the next front keep us a little warmer. We should see the front come through with little fanfare other than an uptick in cloud cover, especially in the first part of the day.
A shot of cold air will drive temperatures back below freezing for Tuesday morning, with some upper 20s likely inland. The metro area should stay closer to the low 30s, but tomato, tomahto — it’s just gonna be cold. A decent northerly breeze will drive wind chills down into the mid-20s, too. Make sure you’ve got pets and plants in a safe and warm place overnight. Temperatures will struggle to the upper 40s at best in the afternoon despite plenty of sunshine, indicative of just how frigid of an airmass we’ve got to work with on Tuesday. Bundle up!
We won’t have the best weather on Thanksgiving Day, unfortunately, as a strong cold front moves through the area. It’ll bring with it some gusty winds and eventually some showers and even a few thunderstorms as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. It’ll be a warm and humid day by late November standards, with lows in the upper 50s to around 60° yielding to the mid-70s in the afternoon. This could help provide sufficient instability within a fairly well-sheared airmass to produce a strong to severe thunderstorm or two as the front approaches, with damaging straight-line wind gusts the main concern. The timing for storms appears to be generally between about 2pm-9pm, progressing west-to-east. It’s possible not everyone will see a storm or even any rain, but we just need to keep an eye on the storms that do fire to make sure they behave.
Tuesday begins an occasionally unsettled period of weather that’ll last through early Black Friday as a series of fronts moves through the area. The first one, poised to move through Tuesday evening, won’t be terribly strong; it’ll kick up some cloud cover and maybe a few showers as well out ahead of it, but it won’t really affect the airmass all that much. We’ll start Tuesday in the low 50s, warming to the low to mid-70s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will surge back into the 60s for a brief period, but those will begin to fall by evening as the front moves by.
Thursday will kick off a stretch of below-normal temperatures that will continue into the first part of the weekend before we turn a little warmer for Sunday. We start Thursday in the mid-40s, but as cooler and drier air rushes into the area, producing some gusty winds at times, high temperatures will be limited to the low 60s at best despite full sunshine. This is closer to January normals than November normals — you’ll likely want to opt for some longer sleeves as a result, at least during the morning.
We’ve got another unseasonably warm day ahead Tuesday ahead of a front that will sweep through on Wednesday. Ahead of that front, we’ll see an increase in cloud cover, and eventually some shower activity later in the afternoon into the evening and overnight. Temperatures Tuesday start in the low to mid-50s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will keep the tides at bay, thankfully, and we should fall short of the coastal flooding threshold with the mid-morning high tide, with no coastal flooding expected for the next few days at least.
Thursday figures to be a somewhat wet day at times across the Lowcountry, starting with salt water flooding downtown and ending up with showers across much of the area by evening.
First, the salt water flooding: Water levels around 7.9′ MLLW are expected with the 6:07am high tide Thursday. This will produce fairly widespread coastal flooding in downtown Charleston, and should also affect Long Point Road and parking areas around Shem Creek in Mt. Pleasant. Expect numerous road closures early on in the commute, with improving conditions heading into 8-9am. Be alert to detours around the aforementioned road closures, and never cross through floodwaters even if a road is closed — remember, this is all going to be salt water and that is incredibly not good for your car’s undercarriage!
The risk for showers should, thankfully, miss the worst of the salt water flooding. It will begin to kick up around mid-morning to midday, with the best chance of showers on Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours. Rainfall amounts should generally stay under a half-inch in most spots, but locally higher amounts are possible where heavier showers develop. Temperatures start in the mid-50s, topping out in the mid-70s early in the afternoon.
