We have another hot day in store for Friday as temperatures once again head back into the low 90s in the afternoon. Humidity will make it feel closer to 100° once again, especially in the early afternoon. Like today, we can expect a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Not everyone will get rain, but those who do could see a brief downpour along with some lightning.
As we get into the weekend, we will see a front start dropping into the area from the north as a trough digs in aloft. This will contribute to additional coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday. Plenty of moisture in the atmosphere will allow for heavy rainfall to develop, and given that slow storm motions are expected, some minor areas of flooding are certainly possible. Look for highs near 90° before storms kick in.
The front will continue to sink south of the area as we get into Sunday. Alas, this isn’t the kind of front that gets us much in the way of a cooldown, and indeed, the front will dissipate as it continues to push southward. Still, expect scattered storms to continue to be a factor on and off during the day. High temperatures will once again run in the upper 80s before showers and storms begin to develop.
This unsettled pattern looks to continue into next week as a trough of low pressure persists in the east. Good news here is that there will be more chances for beneficial rain across the Lowcountry in that time, but let’s hope we don’t get too much of a good thing all at once, either.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to factor in prominently in the forecast over the next few days, with periods of heavy rain possible especially Friday and Saturday. A storm or two may be able to produce a wet microburst, but other than that, no severe weather is expected. Storm motions will be watched closely for any training of heavy rain, and we’ll also keep an eye on tides in case radar trends show heavy rain approaching downtown. We’ll begin to see a downtick in storm coverage as we get into Sunday, when high pressure nudges back in a little bit, but we’ll still see more typical-for-June afternoon shower and storm chances along the seabreeze. It won’t rain all day, and it won’t rain all the time — just ensure you have a backup plan for your outdoor activities if and when it does rain.
The one benefit to these storms is that it’ll help keep temperatures down to around normal values for early June, with highs in the mid-80s. Even still, dewpoints around 70-72° will keep these highs feeling closer to the low to mid-90s, but at least it won’t be hotter with the same humidity.
Thursday is looking quite good with high pressure beginning to assert greater control over our weather. The periods of showers we saw over the past couple days will be a thing of the past, and temperatures will remain comfortably warm with onshore flow. After starting the morning in the 60s, expect highs in the low 80s away from the immediate coast. Dewpoints in the upper 50s keep heat indices in check, making for a nice mid-May day.
After a nicer-than-expected Thursday, we have a pretty outstanding mid-May weekend coming up in the Lowcountry. High pressure will remain the dominant player in our weather both at the surface and aloft. Onshore winds will keep temperatures quite comfortable, and deep-layered dry air will help mix dewpoints out into the 40s during daytime heating, providing for a comfortably dry atmosphere particularly on Friday and Saturday. The airmass will continue to moderate through the weekend, and we should be back to around 80° by Sunday. Overall, this is a great opportunity to get out and about — summer and its associated muggy heat will be here before you know it.
No complaints about this weekend’s weather: Solid late-spring fare for the Lowcountry, with low humidity, a chill in the air to start each morning, and comfortably warm temperatures each afternoon under plenty of sunshine with just some fair weather cumulus at times providing a little natural shade. (Mom will love it.)
If I had to pick a day out of the three for the best weather, I’d say Saturday is probably it for its wide spectrum of temperatures, low humidity, and relatively calm winds. Friday and Sunday look to be a bit on the breezy side with high pressure building on Friday and beginning to depart on Sunday.
We’ll need to monitor weather conditions for enhanced fire danger over the next few days as we still remain abnormally dry. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Friday due to very low humidity and winds gusting up to 30 MPH at times, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see fire danger remain elevated into Sunday before our next rain chances arrive Monday. Please don’t burn outdoors as flames could quickly get out of hand. Otherwise, though, enjoy a nice weekend!
Friday will start out as another chilly morning as temperatures will dip into the low 40s. Frost should not be a concern in our neck of the woods, though, so no worries for your gardens. Temperatures will top out around 70-71° with cloud cover on the increase ahead of our next storm system. Note that fire danger remains high on Friday given continued dry conditions and low humidity.
Saturday will bring beneficial rain to the area, but it may bring some stronger thunderstorms as well. Showers will be possible on Saturday morning, but the best chance for heavier rain and thunderstorms arrives in the afternoon into the evening hours. NWS estimates rainfall amounts around 1-2″, which would be hugely helpful as long as we don’t get it all at one time. Temperatures look to top out in the mid-70s barring more rainfall earlier in the day. Regardless of thunderstorms, winds should be fairly breezy with gusts perhaps near 35-40 MPH at times.
The severe weather threat for Saturday will largely be modulated by how unstable the atmosphere can get. Wind shear will be plentiful thanks to a strengthening low-level jet and favorable upper-level winds, so that ingredient will certainly be there, and there is general model agreement that moisture will surge into the area later Saturday, which may contribute to further destabilization. A lot will depend on how warm we can get during the day — if rain fires up and sticks around, which is certainly possible, then that takes the severe threat down a peg or two (but doesn’t completely eliminate it given the aforementioned favorable wind shear). If it doesn’t, though, there will be fuel available for the storms by the time they get here, and with the expected shear in place, a few severe storms will be expected. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns, but given the favorable vertical wind profiles, a tornado cannot be ruled out.
All this nastiness clears the area overnight Saturday as a front sweeps through, and by Sunday, we will have a much nicer day with clouds gradually breaking down and temperatures rising into the mid-to-upper 70s. It’ll remain windy throughout the day in the wake of the front as high pressure builds in behind it, but otherwise, there are no weather concerns for Sunday into much of next week as our fairly arid April rolls on.
A cold front has gotten through the area this evening, and temperatures are on their way down in its wake. By morning, we’ll be bottoming out in the mid-40s, and you’ll be excused if you’re not quite sure whether it’s late April or not. Despite unencumbered sunshine, temperatures will only reach the mid-60s as chilly high pressure builds in overhead. The April sun angle should still make short sleeves reasonably comfortable, though.
A cold front will be moving through tonight, bringing some cooler air to the area as the front settles south and then stalls out. Cooler, drier air should win out on Friday, keeping us rain-free but only in the low 70s. Waves of low pressure along the front reintroduce rain chances for Saturday, with periods of showers expected through the evening. Depending on how Saturday plays out, we should see a rain-free Sunday with temperatures warming back up a little closer to normal.
Exact timing of any rain on Saturday is going to be difficult to pin down even tomorrow. A lot depends on how showers and thunderstorms transpire along the Gulf Coast during the day Friday into early Saturday. A couple of the variables forecasters will be taking into consideration includes whether moisture transport this far up is disrupted due to thunderstorm activity further south of us as well as how far north the frontal boundary can meander. It’s a tricky one — stay tuned. Indoor backup plans are a good idea for Saturday — we’ll just need radar and sharp attention to observations to determine when you’ll need to enact them.
Well, as they say, all good things must come to an end, and our stretch of great weather is no exception. We’ll begin to see scattered storm chances enter the weather picture later in the afternoon on Friday and stick around into the weekend as a more moisture-laden airmass takes residence. Temperatures will remain fairly warm each day, with 60s in the morning and highs within a couple degrees either way of 80° in the afternoons.
The good news on the rain chances this weekend is that it doesn’t look like we have a total weekend washout in store. Rain chances will be transient and largely driven day-to-day. My best advice is to plan out your weekend as is, and just ensure that you have indoor activities as a backup. I’d pencil in Saturday as probably the less active of the two weekend days, with decent model agreement that a cold front will be driving through the area Sunday, but we’ll want to take this day by day as things evolve upstream.
So far, it doesn’t look like we’ll have any severe weather concerns this weekend, but be reminded that all thunderstorms are dangerous because of lightning.
All in all, this weekend will be good practice for planning outdoor activities during the summer months! Stay dry and safe and do your best to enjoy!
Get ready for what is probably Winter’s final hurrah starting tonight into this weekend. Overnight tonight, temperatures look to fall to the mid-30s in the Charleston Metro Area, with the potential for those temperatures to fall even a bit more inland. I’d protect plants and pets tonight to be on the safe side. Wind chills tomorrow morning will run as low as the mid-20s at times — bone-chilling for January, somewhat absurd for April. In addition to possibly setting a record low in the morning (the record is 36° set in 1942), Friday’s forecast high of 54° would break the record low maximum temperature of 56° set in 2019. All this and we will have full, unfettered sunshine throughout the day. Quite a potently cold airmass, for sure.
The chill continues into Saturday morning. Winds look to back off a little bit, but that may just allow for better radiational cooling conditions with the potential for a freeze inland from the coast and patchy frost elsewhere. Friday night into Saturday morning will be another time to protect your plants and pets from the chilly conditions. Saturday afternoon does look a little warmer with highs getting into the low 60s, but this is still well below normal for early April.
By Sunday, though, we begin to lift out of the cold snap with lows in the low 40s in the morning, followed by highs getting back into the 70s in the afternoon. Just a few clouds will be around, and it looks to be a rather pleasant day.
Bundle up and enjoy the weekend!
@chswx is community-supported, hype-averse weather information, preparedness tips, and alerts for the Charleston, SC Tri-County area (Berkeley, Charleston, Dorchester counties) by Jared Smith.