High pressure continues to be the main weather driver at the surface this weekend, and as an upper low departs, will build in aloft to help temperatures warm up for the weekend. Friday starts on the chilly side once again, with lows bottoming out in the low 40s away from the coast. Wind chills will be less of a factor Friday morning, but a light breeze could still make it feel a couple degrees cooler. Temperatures will warm to the upper 60s to around 70°, making for a nice Fall day across the Lowcountry.
Warm weather fans will rejoice as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure aloft begins to build in. We get Saturday off to a warmer start, with lows in the upper 40s away from the locally warmer coastline. From there, highs peak in the mid-70s for the first time in a few days with just a few passing clouds from time to time. We turn even warmer on Sunday, with temperatures in the low 50s in the morning rebounding to the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon, with a few clouds once again dotting an otherwise brilliantly sunny sky.
The only weather-related concern for this upcoming weekend will be the risk for minor to moderate flooding around the morning high tides. Friday morning’s high tide between 7.4-7.6′ may be commute-impacting as it takes place around 9:05am. Flooding would take place a couple hours on either side of high tide, and at this height, road closures in downtown Charleston begin to become more numerous. Even higher tides are expected Saturday and Sunday, with water levels forecast to peak solidly in moderate flood stage (7.5-8′ MLLW in Charleston Harbor). Once again, road closures are likely, though the impact may be lessened as it’ll be the weekend. The highest tides will take place around 9:58am on Saturday and 10:51am on Sunday. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories this weekend as they will let you know when the roads are most likely to be disrupted.
Temperatures reminiscent of November rather than mid-October continue on Thursday despite unfettered sunshine. We’ll start the day in the low 40s in the metro, with some upper 30s possible further inland. The wind chill will feel closer to the mid-to-upper 30s, so once again, layers are a good idea tomorrow morning. Temperatures head to the mid-60s in the afternoon, so keeping some sort of long sleeves around for when you’re not in sunlight is a smart play. Northerly winds will once again be breezy, generally 10-15 MPH in the afternoon with higher gusts.
We’ll also need to watch for minor coastal flooding during the Thursday morning commute. Water levels are expected to peak around 7.1-7.3′ with the 8:13 AM high tide. The more northerly component of wind will minimize coastal flood impacts a little, but we can still expect a few road closures in the more vulnerable locations of downtown Charleston. Be ready to reroute.
Get ready for the first low 50s of the season starting tomorrow morning! Lows are forecast to bottom out around 50° — and into the upper 40s further inland — for the first time since April 24 on Friday morning. This will yield to highs in the low 70s in the afternoon under predominantly sunny skies. The northeast breeze will still be elevated in the morning, gradually winding down as we get into the evening.
Saturday gets off to a similarly chilly start, though the airmass will begin to moderate as highs climb back into the upper 70s in the afternoon with nearly uninhibited sunshine expected. The warming trend continues Sunday, with a slightly warmer start in the mid-50s warming to highs in the low 80s in the afternoon.
The only weather-related concern of note will be the risk for some minor flooding around the afternoon high tides Friday and again on Saturday as the northeast breeze persists. However, major flooding disruptions do not appear to be in the cards.
Finally, there’s nothing in the tropics we need to be worried about. In fact, it may be a while before we get any more rain. A dry front early next week could usher in even cooler weather, well below normal for mid-October standards. Watching it…
Our brush with Milton arrives on Thursday. The Tropical Storm Watch was dropped as tropical storm conditions are not expected on land (though a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coastal waters). However, that doesn’t change the forecast: It’ll still be a breezy day, with a Wind Advisory in effect for the area from 6 AM to 8 PM as the gradient between high pressure to the north and Milton to the south pinches and drives gusts upwards of 40 MPH across the area. Moderate to major coastal flooding is also expected during the afternoon, with some salt water flooding possibly persisting into early evening depending on how high the tidal departure ends up being. Right now, moderate flooding is forecast as the harbor should peak at 7.8′ MLLW with high tide just before 2 PM. This will close roads in downtown Charleston and parts of Mt. Pleasant, especially around Long Point Road. Be ready to reroute in case you encounter a flooded road.
The rain threat, however, is minimal. We may see a few showers sneak in from time to time, but we will miss out on Milton’s rainfall. In fact, we can expect skies to start to clear as we get further into the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will start in the low-to-mid-60s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon.
Not terribly much to write home about in the weather department this weekend as our weather looks generally quiet with above-normal temperatures expected. A bit more cloud cover works into the area Friday, with a stray shower possible at the coast in the morning. Otherwise, we stay rain-free for the foreseeable future as dry air aloft keeps a lid on shower activity. Temperatures on Friday start in the mid-60s, warming to the low-to-mid-80s in the afternoon.
Saturday runs a little warmer ahead of a weak front that’ll pass by with relatively little fanfare. A mix of sun and clouds is expected throughout the day, but once again, shower activity should be suppressed this far north. We start the day near 70°, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon, likely a couple clicks higher than we will on Friday.
Post-frontal skies on Sunday will trend a little sunnier, with morning lows in the upper 60s warming to the low 80s in the afternoon. All in all, the next few days look pretty alright weather-wise.
Quiet and seasonably warm weather continues for Thursday. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Dewpoints will run in the upper 60s, so it’ll still feel a touch humid, but it won’t be too bad overall. The only weather-related issue we could run into tomorrow would be a little bit of salt water on the roads around the 9:01am high tide. Water levels should peak around 7′, which is right where we generally start to see coastal flooding occur. Widespread impacts aren’t expected, but the usual trouble spots may once again be troublesome, particularly around Hagood and Fishburne.
High pressure ridging in at the surface and aloft will make for a quiet and warm weekend of weather across the Lowcountry.
Clouds will still be around Friday as one more piece of energy ripples through before the high pressure ridge takes over. Rain isn’t expected, though a shower can’t be completely discounted. Expect highs in the mid-80s after an upper 60s start.
Despite the autumnal equinox on Sunday, the weekend will feel increasingly more like summer as highs climb into the mid-and-upper 80s each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. The high pressure ridge aloft will also keep a lid on much in the way of showers and thunderstorms (much less cloud cover). Not the worst set of days for an offseason beach visit, IMHO.
We’ve got one more day of unsettled weather as low pressure aloft and at the surface mosey their way on out of here ahead of what should be a nice weekend. After a generally nice start in the upper 60s, a mix of sun and clouds will send temperatures up to the mid-80s in the afternoon before a few showers and thunderstorms break out with the heating of the day. Not everyone sees rain, but some heavy downpours will be possible in a few spots once again. Severe weather is not expected.
Showers will make a return to the forecast for Friday and the weekend as the dry air that’s been hanging on continues to erode. Models have been trending a bit drier for Friday, but scattered showers still appear to be a decent bet as lift improves atop the wedge of high pressure that remains in place, though it does look like the heaviest rain remains closer to the stationary front to our southwest. Temperatures start in the low 70s, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon under predominantly cloudy skies, though some peeks of sun are possible from time to time.
The weekend forecast turns a little lower-confidence as we watch for the potential for low pressure to spin up offshore on Sunday. Saturday, meanwhile, continues to look showery at times with the risk for a few rumbles of thunder as well as energy aloft interacts with a developing coastal trough. Temperatures generally run in the low 70s to start with highs in the low-to-mid-80s once again in the afternoon.
Sunday’s forecast could turn a bit on if and where low pressure spins up. For now, expect essentially a repeat of Saturday, with temperatures running in the low 70s to start the day, heading into the low 80s in the afternoon. A faster and more southerly low pressure system could increase the risk of heavy rain in the area later Sunday. Guidance is still a little split on where and when low pressure ultimately develops, but the general expectation is that it spins up offshore by Monday, trekking northwestward and reaching shore by Tuesday, with heavier rain on the northern side of the low. It’s hard to know right now if it will shed its fronts and turn tropical, but the Hurricane Center pegs the area of concern at a 30% chance (low risk) to develop over the next seven days. We’ll keep an eye on this, and you probably should as well, though it still doesn’t look like anything that develops will have much of a chance to get particularly strong.
Cloud cover will continue on Thursday as moisture from Hurricane Francine, which has made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 MPH, continues to push northward across the Southeast and into the Lowcountry. High pressure will try to hang on across the East Coast, though Francine will continue to dislodge it north and east. Moisture moving atop high pressure will create plenty of clouds and may be enough to get a few showers going in the afternoon as well, though many of us should stay dry for one more day. We start Thursday around 70°, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon despite the cloud cover.
