Rinse and repeat: More quiet and warm weather is on tap for Thursday (and beyond!) High pressure remains in control, and that’ll keep things rain-free and rather warm for late October. We start the day in the low 60s (for reference, the normal low for October 26 is 54°) and warm to around 80° in the afternoon. Much like Wednesday, we’ll see a few clouds amongst otherwise blue skies.
The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for some minor coastal flooding with the Thursday evening high tide. Water levels should peak between 7-7.2′ in the harbor, and this’ll cause some salt water to spill onto the typical trouble spots roughly an hour or two on either side of the 6:49 PM high tide. We’ll probably land a Coastal Flood Advisory during Thursday evening’s commute, so be ready to route around a little salt water especially around the Citadel and MUSC.
Showers and a few thunderstorms re-enter the weather picture for Friday as a cold front moves by, but it’ll be worth it as we have a gorgeous weekend ahead.
We start Friday in the mid-50s with dewpoints steadily rising throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms will approach the area from the west as the day goes on, with storms possible perhaps as early as 1-2 PM, but most likely in the late afternoon to early evening hours. A storm or two could even be on the strong side, with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Rainfall between a quarter and half-inch is generally expected, with some spots under- and over-performing as is common with these kinds of convective setups. Due to the ongoing dry conditions, though, flooding is not expected to be an issue.
From there, the weekend looks great. Skies clear nicely for Saturday, and northwesterly flow will yield a rather beautiful day with lows in the mid-50s yielding to highs in the mid-70s in the afternoon with nary a cloud to be found. Sunday will be another really nice day with temperatures generally similar to Saturday’s, though we’ll see a bit more in the way of scattered clouds ahead of a dry frontal passage late. All in all, it looks to be a fantastic weekend to get out and do stuff.
Expect clouds to be on the increase on Thursday as a coastal trough develops nearby, spreading some cloud cover onshore. Somewhat more southerly trajectories will allow temperatures to run a little warmer (but still below normal). Expect to start the day in the low-to-mid-50s before temperatures head to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Despite increasing clouds, expect one more rain-free day ahead of a cold front arriving Friday.
We stay unsettled — but turning warmer — on Friday as winds turn a little more onshore thanks to low pressure developing over northern Florida and southern Georgia. This will also help to keep showers in the area for a good bit of the day, so be ready with the rain gear just in case. Some breaks in the clouds may bring some sunshine, but cloudiness should remain the main feature. Expect highs to top out in the mid-70s.
Showers will continue heading into Saturday as low pressure moves northward across the Lowcountry throughout the day. The low should clear the area by afternoon, and from there, we should start to see some slightly drier air work into the area. There should be at least some peeks of sun Saturday afternoon, so the day’s not a total loss, and we’ll get to the low 80s — as warm as we’ll be for the foreseeable future, it’s worth noting.
A stronger cold front comes through overnight and brings a much better shot of cooler and drier air to the area for Sunday. That’ll help to clear some of the cloud cover out a bit and help highs top out only in the mid-70s in the afternoon. Cooler and drier air will continue to work in overnight Sunday, and we’ll have a stretch of cooler-than-normal temperatures for much of next week.
Showers overspreading the area Wednesday evening will continue for much of Thursday as low pressure moves offshore, allowing high pressure to wedge in behind it from the northeast. While rain chances taper heading into the evening, cloud cover should remain robust and temperatures on the cool side thanks to the wedge. We shouldn’t get out of the upper 60s, in fact. All in all, Thursday looks to be a good jacket or hoodie kind of day.
Well, I think we all know what the big weather story will be heading into Friday and the weekend — a really solid shot of cooler and drier air that arrives Sunday for the season’s first true taste of fall. To get there, we’ve got to get through a frontal passage, though limited moisture will keep shower and storm chances relatively low on Friday. Highs top out in the mid-80s after starting in the upper 60s, which is on the mild side of normal for this point in the year. Drier air begins to punch into the area on Saturday, though the cooler air will lag a little bit. Expect Saturday to be a pleasant day, though, with highs topping out in the low 80s in the early afternoon before the cooler air begins to do its thing.
We’ll wake up Sunday in the low 50s, which will be the coolest low since we started May 4th at 48°. Brilliantly sunny skies will aid temperatures getting into the low 70s in the afternoon. It should be a really beautiful day to get out and do stuff. You may very well need a light jacket or hoodie, even. And while this shot of “chilly” air will be somewhat short-lived — we warm back to the 80s by Tuesday — it’s a sign of what’s to come as we get deeper into October and fall.
After a fairly cool and cloudy day on Thursday, cloud cover breaks up a bit for Friday into the weekend, and this will allow temperatures to return to the low to mid-80s each afternoon. Temperatures will peak Saturday before a little cooler air works into the area Sunday. Overall, it looks pretty good to get out and do stuff, especially with the northeasterly winds backing off a bit more as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Rain will generally be a non-factor in our weather starting Thursday (except for maybe some brushes near the coast) heading into Friday and the rest of the weekend. We start the day around 65° with some cloud cover in the area. A northeasterly breeze courtesy of high pressure wedging into the area from the northeast will continue to keep temperatures down to about 80° at warmest in the afternoon with cloud cover hanging around. We should see some sun break through at times as well, though.
The main weather concern will be coastal flooding at times of high tide, and it could be somewhat disruptive to the morning commute in particular. High tide around 7:30am will top out around 7.9′, which is the high end of moderate flood stage in Charleston Harbor. The evening high tide should reach even higher, with water levels around 8.1′ expected around 8pm. Watch for road closures as you commute Thursday morning and then again a little later Thursday evening, particularly if downtown is in your plans.
The weather for Friday and at least the first part of the weekend will be dictated in part by Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, which is forecast to become a tropical storm — probably named Ophelia unless an Atlantic wave develops faster than forecast — as it approaches the NC Outer Banks this weekend. We will stay well on the western periphery of the storm and only feel the occasional shower on Friday, with a gusty breeze for most of us. It will be a rough go at the beaches — probably not the best day to go with gusty winds, high surf, rip currents, and some afternoon coastal flooding around the 1:45 PM high tide. Erosion is certainly not out of the question as well. Highs on Friday top out in the low 80s.
Showers depart by Saturday as maybe-Ophelia moves northward away from us. We start the day in the low 60s with temperatures heading into the low 80s once again under mostly cloudy skies. We should see some breaks in the clouds develop particularly as we get later into the day, though. Winds will remain somewhat breezy, but not to the degree we’ll see Friday.
Sunday is the pick day of the weekend as far as outside stuff goes; lows in the low 60s give way to highs in the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. Another plus to Sunday: Winds will have tapered off considerably, too, as maybe-Ophelia loses tropical characteristics around the Delmarva Peninsula.
Rain-free conditions come to an end Thursday as we should see some scattered showers from time to time courtesy of developing low pressure well offshore. We’ll get off to a much warmer start than the previous couple days, with lows across the metro in the upper 60s to around 70°. Expect a scattering of showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder throughout the day, coming ashore within onshore flow. A few heavy downpours can’t be ruled out. Highs top out in the low 80s.
We’ll get close to coastal flood stage with Thursday afternoon’s high tide, forecast to peak around 12:41 PM, thanks to the increasing northeasterly flow, which tends to pile water up quite efficiently, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that in case some salt water works into the area.
