Reinforcing strong high pressure building into the area on Thursday keeps our weather generally cool and quiet, though winds will be blustery and there will be a coastal flooding risk in the morning.
Lows will dip only to the low 40s owing to breezy conditions restricting better radiational cooling. However, cool air pushing in from the northeast will keep highs capped to the upper 50s despite plenty of sunshine. Combine that with an increasingly stiff breeze — 15-20 MPH in the metro, with higher gusts — and you’ll be glad for a jacket with some wind-breaking capability. At least the sun will be out, and the sky should be largely unmarred by any cloud cover.
High tide around 8:37am will get high enough for minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding smack dab in the middle of the commute. Be ready for possible road closures if downtown is in your commute plans. I’d also be cautious around Long Point Road near Snee Farm as water levels could approach thresholds to flood that road as well. Coastal flooding will remain a concern for the next few mornings, especially as we get into the weekend.
Another round of chilly weather is expected overnight Thursday into Friday. We’ll wake up to temperatures in the upper 30s Friday morning, but high pressure slipping offshore will allow temperatures to warm up to the mid-60s in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Overall, Friday looks pretty good.
The warming trend continues into the weekend. Saturday is the pick day of the weekend for outdoor activities, and it really isn’t close as a front gets through Sunday. It starts significantly warmer than Friday did, with lows in the low to mid-50s expected. Highs will top out in the mid-70s under generally partly cloudy skies. This will be the last warm and quiet weather day for at least a few days, so try to take advantage!
The weather changes fairly quickly overnight Saturday into Sunday as a strong storm system’s cold front drives toward the area. Sunday gets off to another unseasonably warm start, with lows in the low 60s expected. Showers may be firing off first thing Sunday, but the main band of rain associated with the front looks to arrive later in the afternoon and evening. Wind will be another factor, with gusts upwards of 30 MPH appearing possible at times, even outside of storms. The risk for severe weather is quite low, owing to the minimal available instability that’s expected despite no shortage of bulk wind shear. Still, some thunder is possible, and if additional instability can kick up, a strong to damaging wind gust or two is not out of the question. More fine-tuning of the forecast will occur, but generally speaking, Sunday just doesn’t look promising to be outside.
Thursday will represent the bottom-most point of this week’s temperatures rollercoaster, with lows bottoming out in the mid-30s across much of the metro with freezing temperatures further inland. Frost is a distinct possibility, and you’ll want to have pets and plants inside overnight Wednesday. Cool high pressure moves across the area during the day Thursday, limiting highs to the upper 50s to around 60° despite predominantly sunny skies.
Our recent chilly spell will come to an end on Friday as warmer and more humid air moves back in just in time for the start of meteorological winter (December-February). We start Friday in the upper 40s — well above where we have started the past few mornings — and warm to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Unfortunately, showers will also be returning to the forecast, with isolated to scattered showers developing in the afternoon and increasing in coverage overnight heading into Saturday.
Saturday should feature the greatest shower coverage, with on and off rainfall expected. It’ll still be warm, though — lows start in the low 60s, roughly where our high was on Wednesday — with temperatures heading to the low-to-mid-70s despite the rain in the area. Showers will keep on going into Sunday, though coverage may become a little more sparse as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. That being said, most of the models still have showers going well into Sunday night, so keep the rain gear handy. We’ll run about as warm, if not slightly warmer, than Saturday, with highs running solidly in the mid-70s.
Keep those plants covered or indoors: Frost and freeze conditions will return Wednesday night into Thursday morning as cool high pressure remains in place for one more day. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid-30s in much of the metro, with the warmer temperatures near the water. We could even see some 20s further inland and in more rural locations as well. Make sure your pets have a safe place to be tonight!
Temperatures on Thursday will warm to the low-to-mid-60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies, perhaps running a few degrees warmer than Wednesday’s highs, but still on the cool side of normal for late November.
We’ll get Black Friday off to a bit of a cloudy and perhaps showery start as a disturbance ripples through the area, kicking up some patchy rains for a few hours Friday morning. From there, rain will depart and clouds will gradually break some, and we should end the day with some sunshine. We start Friday in the upper 40s and warm to the low 60s.
High pressure wedging southward will keep Saturday on the cool side under a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures start in the mid-40s but may not crack 60° in the afternoon given the cool high pressure wedging into place. Sunday will represent the coolest start of the set with lows in the low 40s expected. However, we’ll warm to the low 60s in the afternoon as the wedge begins to weaken in advance of another disturbance for Monday. Still, high temperatures will run on the cool side of normal, so sweaters may be advisable.
Coastal flooding could be an issue Saturday and Sunday mornings. Water levels around the 6am high tide Saturday could reach 7.2′, while moderate coastal flooding is possible with Sunday morning’s 6:46am high tide as water levels could peak between 7.6-7.8′. We’re approaching a full moon on Monday, but the bigger driver of coastal flooding will be NE winds kicking up near the coast thanks to a pressure gradient between high pressure building in over land and low pressure spinning up offshore. Stay tuned for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
After some much-needed rain Tuesday and Wednesday, we get a day to dry out on Thanksgiving. Expect plenty of sunshine for much of the day (albeit with clouds increasing late) and some cooler and drier air as well — we’ll wake up to lows in the mid-40s that will yield to highs in the low 60s as generally light north winds blow in. Overall, it looks like a great day to get together with family for food and football, amongst other things.
Showers will gradually depart as Friday wears on thanks to low pressure moving away from the area. It’ll be an unseasonably warm day, with lows starting near 60° before temperatures top out in the low to mid-70s in the afternoon. We’ll see some breaks in the clouds between showers, so once again, we’re not expecting a totally gray, washed out day. The only other issue will be the potential for some minor salt water flooding around the 10:25am high tide; expect water levels to peak around 7′ or so, putting some salt water once again on Hagood at Fishburne and perhaps on Lockwood. Widespread flooding issues are not expected.
The weather improves just in time for the weekend. Clouds will be decreasing Saturday as deeper moisture departs. We start the day in the mid-50s before warming into the low 70s in the early afternoon. From there, a cold front will get through later in the day; expect a dry passage thanks to much drier air in place. Sunday will be noticeably cooler — expect lows in the mid-40s, some 10° cooler than Saturday morning — before warming to around 70° in the afternoon.
This week’s shower chances will peak Thursday as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast, spawning low pressure off the Florida coast. Expect shower activity to generally be scattered in nature, though, with some dry periods and maybe a few breaks in the clouds possible at times. Warmer air will make inroads as the wedge of high pressure which kept temperatures fairly well suppressed over the past few days begins to give way. Expect highs to top out in the low 70s in the afternoon as a result.
There will again be the risk for some minor coastal flooding with Thursday morning’s high tide, which is expected to peak around 9:33am. Much like Wednesday morning, water levels should reach 7-7.2′ again, which should be enough to put some salt water on the roads but not enough to begin to introduce widespread issues. Still, the vulnerable locations on the west side of the peninsula near The Citadel and Gadsden Green will likely take on salt water once again during the morning. Be ready to reroute around flooded roads.
If you’ve been a fan of this recent warm weather, soak Friday in, because that’s going to do it for the 80s for a little while. Clouds will be increasing ahead of a cold front that will be moving by late Friday night, which will usher in a much cooler airmass for the weekend and beyond.
Cool high pressure will wedge southward overnight Friday into Saturday, and we’re going to feel it in the way of lows that’ll run ~20° cooler than what’s expected Friday (low 60s vs. low 80s). Overrunning moisture atop the wedge could bring some showers to the area for Saturday, especially later in the day. The better chance of showers will arrive with a round of mid-level energy that’ll move by Sunday. The expected clouds and showers will keep highs suppressed to the upper 50s at best. We’ll also need to keep an eye on Sunday morning’s high tide for the potential for minor coastal flooding thanks to the northeasterly winds driving up tidal departures.
Overall, it’ll be good to get our first measurable rain of the month as abnormally dry conditions continue to spread across the Lowcountry, even if the weekend is not an ideal time. We’ll see rain taper off later Sunday and some more sunshine as we get into Monday and beyond, though temperatures will remain generally below normal for this point in the year with highs in the mid-60s each afternoon.
