First off, you’ve probably noticed that I’ve not been posting the past few days. I’ve had a fairly significant death in my family that has kept me away from work and weather, and that will keep the posting and podcast schedule fairly bare at times for the next couple weeks. I’ll have more to say on that soon and how you can help if you are interested.
But first, we have a storm system arriving Friday that could pose a potentially significant flooding risk for downtown Charleston Friday night. Low pressure moving across the Gulf Coast states will drive perhaps a few rounds of heavy rain through the metro area starting Friday afternoon and well into the evening. This could coincide with high tide around 7:27pm to produce enough flooding to close roads downtown as well as in vulnerable locations in North Charleston and maybe even Summerville. 2″ or more of rain will be possible in many spots across the Tri-County. Be ready to curtail Friday night plans or find alternate routes in case widespread flooding develops.
Rain will continue into Saturday, though it’ll be more on and off. The heaviest stuff will have pivoted northward, but showers and maybe a thunderstorm should redevelop as a cold front pushes into the area during the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, thankfully. Saturday’s the warmest day of the weekend with highs in the mid-70s, while post-front, we’ll see a solid 10° drop in high temperatures for Sunday. Clouds will be clearing, though, and we’ll be back in the 70s possibly as early as Monday.
High pressure will lose its grip on the area for Friday and the weekend, allowing some periods of unsettled weather to move in — but don’t fret as we’ll have plenty of rain-free time as well. It’ll stay quite warm, too, with 80s expected each afternoon.
We’ll at least get Friday morning in rain-free ahead of a disturbance that’ll push a cold front into the area Friday afternoon and evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible by mid-afternoon leading into the commute, but not before we warm back into the 80s once again. A strong storm may not be totally out of the question west of 17-A, but high-res guidance generally shows storms in a weakening trend as they push eastward toward much cooler shelf waters.
Shower and thunderstorm chances persist overnight Friday into Saturday morning before what looks like a break in the action for much of the day. Temperatures start quite mild — think low to mid-60s — and warm back to the low 80s in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Shower chances should hold off Saturday night and into a good bit of Sunday before returning later in the afternoon and into the evening as another front approaches the area. This front shakes us out of our run of 80s and back below normal for Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Thursday looks like an excellent weather day across the Lowcountry, something out of the late-April playbook but in mid-March. We’ll start the day around 50° once again, warming to the low 80s in the afternoon with maybe a few clouds amongst otherwise clear skies as ridging aloft strengthens briefly for the day. Expect winds generally in the 5-10 MPH range, picking up a little in the afternoon in the wake of a sea breeze. Enjoy!
We’ll get March — and climatological spring — off to a fairly wet start on Friday as moisture overruns the area throughout the day. We start the day within range of normal — generally the upper 40s — but only warm to the mid-60s in the afternoon as rain showers increase throughout the day. There could be some pockets of heavy rain at times, particularly depending on the positioning of a developing low pressure system, but right now the risk for the heaviest rain looks to stay offshore. Still, it’ll be a day for the rain gear as rain looks to continue well into Friday night.
We’ll wake up to much cooler air on Leap Day as a cold front will be long-gone by Thursday morning. Temperatures will start in the mid-40s, warming only to the low 60s at best as high pressure wedges into the area. We’ll get some peeks of sun at times, but the mid-and-high cloud deck will prove formidable. It’ll be a breezy day as well, especially in the early going. By evening, we will start to see more in the way of low-level moisture return to the area, which could bring a few showers late Thursday.
The first of two cold fronts to affect the area this weekend comes through on Friday, bringing showers to the area and maybe even a thunderstorm or two. It’ll be the warmest start to a day this week, with lows bottoming out only in the low 50s. Temperatures should warm to the upper 60s to around 70°, but the rain being around will make it decidedly less nice.
The first front clears the area in time for Saturday, which should be the warmer of the two weekend days. We start the day in the mid-40s while highs head to the mid-to-upper 60s once again under partly cloudy skies. Clouds will tick up as we head into Saturday afternoon and evening as the second front moves by, and there’s an outside shot at a shower or two as it moves through. This front will bring more of a cool shot of air to the area, with lows on Sunday bottoming out in the upper 30s and highs struggling to reach 60° under mostly sunny skies. The chill is short-lived, though: temperatures on Monday head into the upper 60s, while we’re well into the 70s by Tuesday as we close out February and climatological winter.
One more quiet day of weather lies ahead before a brief round of rain for Friday. Temperatures on Thursday start in the upper 30s — still running a little below normal for this point in February — but warm to the mid-to-upper 60s in the afternoon as southerly flow moderates the airmass a little bit more. We’ll start the day on the clear side, but clouds will gradually increase ahead of a cold front that’ll affect the area on Friday with the first shower chances in a few days.
Friday & the weekend will feature more in the way of cloud cover, with a cold front bringing a brief cooldown to the area for Sunday. We’ve got one more day of 70s ahead on Friday, though, despite mostly cloudy skies as moisture increases ahead of the next storm system. Said storm system doesn’t amount to too much here, though, as it’ll primarily keep us overcast with a few stray showers possible on Saturday, but little else as the bulk of the low-level moisture stays to our south. Temperatures on Saturday start on the warm side thanks to the overcast, with lows only bottoming out in the low 50s before warming to the mid-60s in the afternoon. A cold front then sweeps through overnight, leaving us in the low 40s Sunday morning and only warming to about the mid-50s in the afternoon. There will be some peeks of sun through the cloud cover, but clearing in earnest will take place as we get into Monday.
We got close to 70° on Wednesday, but we should reach it on Thursday with another day of mostly sunny skies under the influence of high pressure. We start the day around 40° and warm quickly to the upper 60s by midday, and will likely peak in the low 70s during the early part of the afternoon. Winds will shift to the southwest and will pick up a little in the afternoon, with speeds around 10 MPH becoming common later in the day.
After peaking in the mid-60s on Thursday, temperatures will continue to warm heading into Friday and the weekend despite persistent cloud cover. We start Friday much warmer than the previous several days, with a low temperature in the mid-40s across much of the area. Temperatures will climb to about 70° despite the mostly cloudy skies, several degrees above normal for February 9.
Saturday will be a warmer version of Friday. Cloud cover will persist, with peeks of sun from time to time, but we start the day about 5-7° warmer than we started Friday with lows in the low 50s. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the mid-70s as southerly flow continues to bring warmer air into the area.
Sunday starts even warmer, with lows barely clearing below 60° in the morning, well above normal for this point in the year. Temperatures will warm back to the mid-70s in the afternoon. We stay rain-free for the first part of Sunday, but we should start to see some shower activity work into the area later in the afternoon into the evening as a storm system affects the area; much of this rain falls Monday, though, before temperatures turn back toward normal for Tuesday.
