Despite the air temperature topping out around 91°, Thursday’s going to be the hottest day of the week because of quite a bit of humidity. Heat indices could approach 100° in the afternoon before scattered thunderstorms develop along the inland-moving seabreeze. A storm or two could be on the strong side where outflow boundaries intersect, but as is typical in the summertime, any severe weather will be quite localized. Heat will certainly affect everyone, though, so be sure that you’re getting plenty of water and shade if you’re outdoors in the height of the afternoon.
We have one more fairly hot day in store before a cold front moves into the area later tonight, bringing with it some unsettled weather — perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two — before moving through and stalling out to our southeast, keeping rain chances in play for the weekend (though turning a little better by Sunday).
Today will start as the past few days have, with temperatures heading into the 90s by early afternoon. Around 2-3 PM, we should start to see showers and thunderstorms fire on the seabreeze — perhaps as close to the coast as the US-17 corridor — before gradually moving inland with time. At the same time, we’ll be watching the cold front to our north and west continue to press into the Carolinas. With the seabreeze, other colliding outflow boundaries, and the approaching front, a couple storms could turn strong to severe, particularly inland. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.
The convection-allowing models hint at a lull in the activity this evening before the front gets through the area, perhaps spreading some showers and a few thunderstorms into the area after midnight. Once the front gets through, we will feel somewhat cooler temperatures for the weekend courtesy of winds turning east and northeast as high pressure wedges in from the north. Winds could be a little breezy thanks to a pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and what is expected to be Tropical Storm Alex as it passes well to our south. Alex could also help bring some additional moisture into the area particularly on Saturday, which will keep shower and thunderstorm chances elevated throughout the day (though the highest in the afternoon with daytime heating). By Sunday, the atmosphere dries out a little, but a few hit or miss showers and thunderstorms remain possible into the early evening.
Bottom line for your weekend: It won’t rain all day at any one particular location, but have that rain plan ready to go for any outdoor activities, particularly on Saturday when the probability of precipitation is higher. (And enjoy the cooler temperatures!)
Another hot day is in store for Thursday as highs once again soar into the 90s under partly cloudy skies. Add humidity in, and heat indices could reach 96-97°. There’s a slight chance of a popup thunderstorm or two tomorrow, but the vast majority of us once again look to remain rain-free. If storms do fire, they could produce some gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning, so be ready to move indoors if you’ve got outdoor plans tomorrow afternoon.
Thursday looks to be another warm and somewhat muggy day as onshore flow keeps humidity up a notch or two. Temperatures will top out a little warmer than they did today, ending up around on the higher end of the mid-80s away from the coastline; factor in the humidity and we’ll see heat indices running in the low 90s. We look to stay rain-free, though, as drier air aloft stays in place for one more day.
We hit 95° at the airport today, making it the warmest day of the year thus far in the Charleston metro area. As of this writing, the cap has held, too, and there are no thunderstorms to speak of. We should repeat this performance tomorrow under partly cloudy skies, with temperatures starting in the mid-70s in the morning to the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon. Once again, a dearth of energy and a strong cap will keep thunderstorms at bay for Friday, so don’t count on any heat relief in that regard.
We start to see the high pressure ridge begin to shift away a little on Saturday, though, opening the door for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. They’ll be scattered about, so not everyone will see measurable rain. Where it does rain, though, it could be heavy. Highs top out in the upper 80s to around 90°, tempered by afternoon thunderstorms.
We should see similar weather on Sunday, with even more numerous showers and thunderstorms expected that afternoon. Again, though, some spots may see a downpour while others get little to no measurable precipitation. There also appears to be a risk for a few storms to be on the strong side with strong downburst winds and perhaps hail. Widespread severe weather, at this point, doesn’t appear likely, though.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast each afternoon thus far next week, so if you miss out on the rain this weekend, there’s still plenty of chances to come.
The hottest weather thus far in 2022 looks to arrive on Thursday. We’ll start the day in the upper 60s and warm well into the mid-90s in the afternoon. The record high of 96°, set in 1996, will be challenged under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Heat indices could run close to 100° in the afternoon, so be sure to hydrate and take breaks accordingly.
As a series of mid-level disturbances ripple through the area, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms to fire off and move through in the late afternoon and evening hours. IF storms can fire — and this is a big IF — they could be on the strong to severe side. The thermodynamics certainly look good for storms to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail, but it remains to be seen if they can get going thanks to a strong cap on the atmosphere. Gonna be a game of wait, see, and watch the satellite and radar in the meantime.
Low pressure, which has brought some generally light showers to the area today, will continue to push southwestward across the area for Friday and the first part of the weekend. The best rain chances arrive tomorrow as the low makes its closest approach, but aside from some pockets of heavier rain, storm totals should generally run around a half-inch to 3/4” at best — certainly not the drought-buster we need. Temperatures will top out a little warmer in the upper 70s to around 80° as winds begin to turn more southerly as the low moves inland.
Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two will continue to be possible heading into Saturday as the low meanders westward. Southerly flow around the low will continue to keep the heat pump running, though, and highs should top out in the mid-80s in the afternoon after we start in the mid-60s. While a shower or storm can’t be ruled out for Sunday, most should stay dry, and temperatures continue to nudge upward in the afternoon on the higher end of the mid-80s. By next Monday, we should be in the 90s again, so soak up the last of this cool air while you can!
After a rather gorgeous — if not a touch windy — stretch of weather across the Lowcountry, rain chances return to the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening as coastal low pressure drifts closer to the area. We’ll start to see an increase in cloud cover overnight into tomorrow morning, but the best rain chances should hold off until the afternoon. We may be contending with some showers for the evening drive, so be alert to that possibility. Temperatures will still run on the cool side as breezy north and northeast winds continue across the area; with the cloud cover and approaching rainfall, we shouldn’t see highs much warmer than the mid-70s.
A cold front will come through this weekend, bringing strong storms to the area Friday evening before restoring order to temperatures by Sunday.
After hitting 92° at the airport today, we’ll climb back into the 90s on Friday afternoon. Much of Friday looks to remain dry (though a stray shower or two can’t be ruled out in the morning). However, we’ll be watching a squall line and an associated risk for severe weather push eastward through the Carolinas during the day. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary concerns, though a tornado can’t be ruled out. The best risk of severe weather will be along and west of I-95. The line will be getting into the Charleston metro area later in the evening, and as a result, we should begin to see some weakening as daytime heating is lost. However, sporadic wind damage or hail will still be possible as the line pushes offshore, so you’ll want to keep an eye out for rapidly changing conditions Friday night.
The cold front will get through the area Saturday morning, but a deep trough aloft will still allow for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the mid-80s, a far cry from where we’ve landed the last couple days.
Pleasant weather returns in full force for Sunday. High pressure will build in, and the cooler and drier airmass will yield highs in the upper 70s to around 80° under mostly sunny skies. If there’s a pick day for getting out and about this weekend, it’s Sunday.
From there, seasonable temperatures continue for much of the new work week, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s continuing at least into mid-week, with dry weather looking to stay in place until Thursday. But let’s not trouble ourselves too much with a new work week with a weekend on tap, shall we?
