Our spring preview has one more day to go before a cold front comes through later Friday and knocks temperatures down quite a bit for Saturday. We’ll see rain chances head up as we head into Friday afternoon and evening, with even a chance for a rumble of thunder or two. Instability will be lacking, but the shear should be enough to support a couple thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day, though, with the best chances around dinnertime.
We turn much cooler Saturday in the wake of said cold front. We’ll see a brief round of clearing on Saturday before a coastal low develops near Florida and heads northeastward, helping to drive a wedge of cooler air southward and keeping a shower chance around near the coast for much of the day. (That being said, it will not rain all day at any one location, either!) Temperatures may not get out of the upper 40s on Sunday. The good news? No sub-freezing temperatures are in the forecast, thus there are no winter weather concerns.
Despite winds going back around to the northeast later Saturday into Sunday, we’re far enough removed from the perigean spring tide where coastal flooding doesn’t look to be a concern for the weekend. It’s been an active year for coastal flooding already, with 11 events in 2022 so far, and we’re just into February 3rd. This already beats 1998’s total of ten coastal flooding events in that year’s first two months.
Well, here we are getting into the weekend with another storm system primed to affect the area. Overcast skies will be the rule for much of Friday as showers develop in the afternoon on the periphery of offshore low pressure. Temperatures will only top out around 50-51° given the lack of sunshine and northerly component to the wind.
As we get into the overnight hours Friday into Saturday morning, showers could give way to some snow flurries as colder air punches into the area. I always urge caution with cold-chasing-moisture scenarios like the one we will find ourselves in, but as an upper low traverses the area on the heels of the surface low pressure system moving northeast, it’s certainly conceivable that parts of the Tri-County, especially along and north of a Summerville-Moncks Corner-Jamestown line, could see a period of snow. Flurries will be possible all the way to the coast and perhaps as far south as Edisto as we get toward daybreak Saturday. Accumulations, if any, will be quite light and confined to grassy surfaces, and travel disruptions are not expected. And yes, folks — there will be no ice.
While the risk for snow is still quite conditional (and, to be fair, may not fully pan out), the certainty in the forecast is another shot of Arctic air that will turn this weekend frigid. Temperatures will struggle into the low 40s on Saturday afternoon despite cloud cover scouring out, producing clear skies by the afternoon. Sunday morning is setting up to rival the coldest of the season with lows in the low 20s expected in the Charleston metro area. This is potentially pipe-busting cold, and you’ll need to make sure that pets, plants, pipes, and people are safe and sound Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any bit of light wind could bring the wind chill factor into the upper teens on Sunday morning, too. We’ll keep plenty of sun in the forecast for Sunday, but even then, highs will likely not crack 50°.
The good news is that we begin a sharp warming trend on Monday. As we get into later in the new work week, we may even flirt with 70° for a time. With that in mind, though, the large scale pattern continues to favor generally cooler-than-normal conditions in the eastern half of the US, so don’t change out the wardrobe at the first sign of upper 60s just yet.
Let’s start with the good news: Friday looks pretty good, with highs around 60° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Much of Saturday looks to be okay as well, with showers not expected to start until later in the afternoon/early evening. And then there’s Sunday.
After a couple slightly warmer days, a reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives for Friday into Saturday. Highs will once again top out in the mid-50s both days despite plenty of sunshine. A freeze is even likely for most of us away from the coast on Saturday morning, too. By Sunday, though, high pressure quickly slips offshore and the southerly return flow turns the heat pump back on, sending us into the low 70s in the afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front. There could be some shower chances late Sunday, but the best risk of rain right now appears to be overnight Sunday into Monday morning as the front swings through. All in all, not a bad-looking weekend with a little something for both cool-weather and warm-weather fans.
Additionally, tomorrow should be only the second time this year that we will not have any coastal flooding concerns in Charleston Harbor. Water levels once again peaked just over 7′ this morning, making it 5 of 6 days so far in 2022 with some tidal flooding to contend with. (The one day there was no flooding? Monday, when the windstorm blew the tide out well below predicted levels.)
After some much-needed rain (and some lesser-needed hail) on Thursday, we head into New Year’s Eve with continued warm temperatures as a frontal boundary, which has caused some complications for the weather in the southeastern US this week, remains stalled well to our north. A shower or two can’t totally be ruled out Friday, but much of us should remain dry to close out 2021, and fireworks displays should be unimpeded as a result. Temperatures will once again head well into the 70s in the afternoon, and could challenge the record high of 78° last set in 1996.
New Year’s Day will remain quite warm with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs should stay just shy of the record of 80° we set on January 1, 2021, but they will certainly get close as we remain within the warm sector. Saturday should remain rain-free for the Lowcountry with no appreciable disturbances to speak of to instigate shower activity in our neck of the woods.
The pattern will finally begin to change on Sunday as a potent upper-level system dislodges the stalled front and finally pushes it eastward. Expect showers and even a few thunderstorms ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be on the strong side given good upper-level support and probably just enough instability. Highs top out in the mid-70s owing to cloud cover and rain chances. There’s still questions on when the front ultimately gets through, but all indications are that the first Monday of 2022 will be significantly cooler than we’ve experienced in the past couple weeks! Hang in there, cool weather fans — almost there.
Record high temperatures will be possible Friday and Saturday as deep southerly flow pumps a lot of warm air into the area ahead of a cold front currently timed to get through here on Sunday.
We’ll start Friday with some patches of fog in the area giving way to a mix of clouds & sun. A sprinkle or two can’t totally be ruled out, either. The forecast high of 78° would tie the record high set in 1971, and a low of 59° would tie the record high minimum temperature set in 2012. We’ll certainly be on record watch throughout the day!
Saturday may also approach record warmth despite a little more cloud cover. The record high for December 18 is 80°, set in 2008. Once again, we may start the day with some patches of fog.
By Sunday, though, a cold front will be getting through the area, capping temperatures to around 70° with a scattering of showers becoming most likely from the late morning to early afternoon. Departing low pressure may kick up the winds a little bit, and could contribute to a threat of coastal flooding as we get into Monday. Thereafter, the next risk of rain arrives Tuesday as a coastal storm potentially scrapes the area. We’ve got plenty of weekend before we have to worry about that, though.
A cold front will approach the area tonight, bringing with it periods of cloud cover that will occasionally obscure the view of the partial lunar eclipse (beginning around 2:30am, peaking at 4am, and ending around 5:30am). However, given that much of this cloud cover will be higher-based, it could make for some rather dramatic photography even though the moon won’t be completely clear. Something to think about as you consider your plans tonight!
Said cold front moves through the area around daybreak Friday, and brings with it much cooler and drier air — expect highs to only top out in the low 60s despite mostly sunny skies. We’ll have more of the same on Saturday, with high pressure wedging southward a bit and kicking up northeasterly winds to yield wind chills in the low 30s in the morning before warming back to just the low 60s once more. High pressure will slip offshore quickly, though, and by Sunday we’ll feel warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70° as return flow from the southwest increases ahead of another quite potent cold front that’ll swing through to kick off the abbreviated Thanksgiving work week. How potent, you ask? It may very well be enough to bring the season’s first freeze to inland locations. Highs could struggle to the low 50s next Tuesday if current forecasts pan out. Stay tuned!
There will be an outside shot at some minor coastal flooding Saturday morning given the winds shifting around to the northeast and the full moon helping to elevate astronomical tides somewhat. Right now, the forecast falls just short of the 7′ mean lower low water level that marks the coastal flooding threshold, but we’ll keep an eye on it. Thankfully, this will not be anywhere in the ballpark of the major flooding event we experienced a couple weekends ago, and the threat for coastal flooding will be relatively short-lived as winds promptly go offshore on Monday after frontal passage.
We’re back to nice weather this weekend as a series of dry cold fronts move through, reinforcing progressively cooler and drier air as time goes on. Any leftover showers should be departing with the front Friday morning, and despite frontal passage, we should still warm into the mid-70s but with lower dewpoints spreading into the area. Winds out of the west and northwest could have a little downslope component to them, which will aid in warming us a few degrees above normal for the afternoon.
Saturday looks excellent, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures around or just a hair above normal ahead of another front that looks to get through the area later in the evening. This front brings in another shot of cooler and drier air for Sunday, which certainly could prompt a sweater weather watch with highs in the mid-60s despite full sunshine. Overall, I would say this weekend’s weather will dramatically outclass the mess that was last weekend.
While we reached minor flood stage once again in the harbor early this afternoon — eight consecutive days of coastal flooding, for those of you counting at home — the risk for additional coastal flooding is extremely low going into Friday and virtually nonexistent heading into the weekend. (And thank goodness for that.)
Much cooler than normal temperatures will persist for Friday into the weekend as a high pressure wedge remains in place, keeping north to northeasterly flow over the area through Sunday. As a coastal storm organizes offshore — how far offshore remains quite an important forecast question — we’ll see an uptick in rain chances beginning Friday evening into Saturday. Where the storm sets up will largely influence just how much rain we get, an important piece considering the specter of an 8’+ high tide on Saturday morning. If heavy rain coincides with that tide, what looks to already be a significant coastal flooding event gets that much worse.
The coastal storm will lift away from the area heading into Saturday night, and we should see some more sunshine on Sunday. Moderate to major flooding remains a threat with the Sunday morning high tide, though, and will need to be watched carefully. We’ll stay on the chilly side, too, with highs only topping out in the mid-60s — more January than November.
After some lingering showers clear the area Friday morning, we will head into the weekend with quite seasonable weather to close out October. Friday looks to be another breezy day across the area as low pressure in the Tennessee Valley lumbers northeastward. A shower or two can’t be totally ruled out in spots on Friday afternoon, but the chances are relatively small. Same for Saturday, as a mix of sun and clouds keeps highs in the mid-to-upper 60s across the area with a stray shower or two possible (but unlikely). Expect more sun for Halloween as high pressure begins to reassert itself a little bit and drier air takes hold over the area. Trick-or-treating will be in fine shape (weather-wise, at least). Be safe and enjoy!
