Showers will make a return to the forecast for Friday and the weekend as the dry air that’s been hanging on continues to erode. Models have been trending a bit drier for Friday, but scattered showers still appear to be a decent bet as lift improves atop the wedge of high pressure that remains in place, though it does look like the heaviest rain remains closer to the stationary front to our southwest. Temperatures start in the low 70s, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon under predominantly cloudy skies, though some peeks of sun are possible from time to time.
The weekend forecast turns a little lower-confidence as we watch for the potential for low pressure to spin up offshore on Sunday. Saturday, meanwhile, continues to look showery at times with the risk for a few rumbles of thunder as well as energy aloft interacts with a developing coastal trough. Temperatures generally run in the low 70s to start with highs in the low-to-mid-80s once again in the afternoon.
Sunday’s forecast could turn a bit on if and where low pressure spins up. For now, expect essentially a repeat of Saturday, with temperatures running in the low 70s to start the day, heading into the low 80s in the afternoon. A faster and more southerly low pressure system could increase the risk of heavy rain in the area later Sunday. Guidance is still a little split on where and when low pressure ultimately develops, but the general expectation is that it spins up offshore by Monday, trekking northwestward and reaching shore by Tuesday, with heavier rain on the northern side of the low. It’s hard to know right now if it will shed its fronts and turn tropical, but the Hurricane Center pegs the area of concern at a 30% chance (low risk) to develop over the next seven days. We’ll keep an eye on this, and you probably should as well, though it still doesn’t look like anything that develops will have much of a chance to get particularly strong.
Cloud cover will continue on Thursday as moisture from Hurricane Francine, which has made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 MPH, continues to push northward across the Southeast and into the Lowcountry. High pressure will try to hang on across the East Coast, though Francine will continue to dislodge it north and east. Moisture moving atop high pressure will create plenty of clouds and may be enough to get a few showers going in the afternoon as well, though many of us should stay dry for one more day. We start Thursday around 70°, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon despite the cloud cover.
A reinforcing shot of cooler air will send temperatures well below normal this weekend, but first we have to get through some elevated rain chances for Friday that linger into Saturday. Friday starts in the low 70s, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Low pressure developing along the front will strafe the area in the afternoon and evening hours, driving rain chances up across the area as it does so. Rain chances peak Friday evening into Saturday morning, though scattered storms will remain possible much of the day Saturday. A trough of low pressure hangs over the area on Sunday, and this keep the risk for a few showers and storms in the forecast especially in the afternoon.
Temperatures will dive even further below normal Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs to only reach about 80° on Saturday, while we may not even crack 80° on Sunday. If the high of 78° verifies, it’d be the coolest high temperature since May 18, when we also reached 78°! Fall will certainly be a bit more in the air, that’s for sure. Temperatures recover back into the low 80s as we get into next week, but remain well below early September normals.
The wedge of high pressure that’s kept things breezy and cool but largely quiet hangs on for one more day Thursday. We’ll start the day in the low 70s, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Breezy conditions with gusts 20-25 MPH will continue to be possible as the pressure gradient stays pinched, and we’ll keep the risk of a shower or two primarily in the afternoon. The best chance for any rain will be closer to the coast, though much of us look to get the day in rain-free.
The good news is that much of the upcoming Labor Day weekend is looking pretty good: expect highs generally to run in the low 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the upper 90s expected after taking into account dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. A stray shower or storm can’t be completely ruled out, especially as you head inland, but otherwise we should stay mostly quiet across the area.
A pattern change is in the offing, though, that will help drive a front toward the area for Monday. We’ll start Labor Day in the mid-70s once again, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. As the front pushes southward, the risk for showers and thunderstorms will increase, with a decent shot at some storms arriving by Monday evening. This will kick off a stretch of unsettled — but cooler — weather as the front stalls to our south and high pressure wedges southward across the area. A nearby coastal trough should keep rain chances in place for much of next week, though we have a few more summery days to enjoy before then!
Our stretch of high-pressure-dominated weather continues on Thursday as warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies continue. We start the day in the mid-70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the low 70s will ultimately yield heat indices around 100-101°. A few patches of fog will be possible in the morning, but otherwise, another generally quiet weather day is expected.
The whiff of fall we’ve felt the past day or two starts to retreat a bit as we head into Friday and the weekend. (All good things…)
We do get one more really nice start on Friday, though. Expect to start the day in the mid-60s in much of the metro, running closer to 70° near the coast and even cooler further inland. We’ll warm to the low 80s in the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Dewpoints will be climbing back into the upper 60s, so while not terribly oppressive, the humidity will be a little more noticeable. It should also support the risk for a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon after a couple reasonably quiet days.
The warming trend continues into the weekend. We’re back in the mid-80s on Saturday and the upper 80s on Sunday as dewpoints return to the 70s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each afternoon, but not everyone will see rain, nor will it be the kind of rain to completely ruin the day, either. Just keep an eye out for possible storms and be ready to move outdoor activities inside for a bit.
We’ve got a reasonably comfortable day (especially as late August goes) for Thursday as cool high pressure continues to rule the meteorological roost in our neck of the woods. We start the day in the upper 60s in much of the metro, likely dropping even lower further inland and in more rural locations. Temperatures should warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon, but humidity will be quite tolerable with mid-60s dewpoints expected. Clouds will be on the increase as a coastal trough takes shape, and there will be a risk for a shower near the coast, but much of us get the day in rain-free.
Friday and the weekend look mostly quiet as high pressure remains the main weather player for a few more days. We should start Friday in the mid-to-upper 60s in much of the metro (with low 70s on the coast); temperatures head to the low 90s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. With dewpoints in the mid-60s, the heat index could actually run slightly cooler than the air temperature (yes, this can happen!). So, while it’ll still be on the hot side, it won’t be quite as bad as it has been.
Winds go more southerly starting Saturday, and we’ll see a slow uptick in dewpoints as a result, but Saturday still looks quite good. We’ll start in the low 70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies once again. Heat indices will run a degree or two warmer than the air temperature, but still generally not too out of bounds especially compared to what we’ve dealt with recently. Dewpoints creep back into the 70s on Sunday, and this will help drive a few scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening as another cold front approaches the area. We could see a stronger storm or two, but that’ll depend on the timing of the front. Overall, though, we should have a pretty good weekend of weather. And, given the fact that winds will go more southerly, the risk for coastal flooding is diminished for the upcoming weekend compared to yesterday’s forecast, though a little salt water on Fishburne at Hagood around the evening high tides could still be in play.
High pressure wedging southward across the area has brought some cooler and drier air to the area this evening, with dewpoints falling into the mid-60s (it’s been a minute!). This will yield a fairly nice (but still warm) day on Thursday. We’ll start the day in the low 70s and warm to the upper 80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. With the lack of moisture and influence of high pressure, rain isn’t expected (and won’t be for a few days). Overall, not too shabby for mid-August!
