We are through the worst of our experience with the coastal storm that has been bothering us for the better part of two days, and improvement will start to show itself on Sunday. We should see showers mostly shut down around daybreak or so, but I’m not sure a stray or two can be totally discounted throughout the day. We should start to see some breaks in the clouds, and by the evening, I suspect we’ll have at least some sunshine to close out the day. Temperatures will remain well below normal for this point in the year, topping out in the low 70s after starting the day around 60°.
Well, this is a really unusual Memorial Day weekend forecast, to put it mildly. Showers will be ongoing as we wake up Saturday with gusty winds and quite a chill in the air. We start the day in the upper 50s — well below normal for this point in the year. Showers and north winds will keep temperatures capped in the mid-60s. To give you a general idea of how abnormal this is for this point in May, the normal low is 66°, and the NWS forecast is 67°. That’ll be one degree off the record low maximum if it verifies.
Wet weather will kick off the Memorial Day weekend as a low pressure system rides up the coast and affects the Carolinas with heavy rain, gusty winds, rough surf, strong rip currents, and very hazardous marine conditions. It’s also going to be very unseasonably cool, at least to start — think highs in the 60s for Saturday. (Seriously.)
Friday will start in the upper 50s (the normal low for May 26 is 66°, for comparison) and only warm to the low 70s with cloud cover and increasing shower activity throughout the day. Winds will be breezy, coming in from the northeast around 20 MPH with higher gusts. The best chance for showers will begin in the evening hours and last well into Saturday as the low pressure system comes ashore somewhere between Charleston and Wilmington.
Memorial Day across the Lowcountry, while not nearly as springlike as last year’s, will feel appropriate as the unofficial start of summer. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the locally warmer coastline, heading into the upper 80s to near 90° away from the beaches by afternoon before the seabreeze rolls through. Temperatures at the beaches will top out in the low to mid-80s, making for a really good day to get some sun. (Just mind the high UV index and apply sunscreen liberally!)
There’s a tiny chance we could see a shower or storm in the morning as a little energy ripples on by, but that risk is rather low. The better — albeit still slight, all things considered — chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm comes in the afternoon as we reach peak heating along and ahead of the seabreeze. Winds are onshore throughout a good bit of the atmosphere as surface high pressure remains offshore and a 585-588 decameter ridge remains centered over eastern North Carolina, so this should allow for the seabreeze to make good movement inland throughout the afternoon, limiting the risk for any thunderstorms near the beaches especially after 2PM. With limited to no wind shear to work with, thunderstorms will be pulse in nature and thus pop and subsequently collapse. All this to say, though, that the risk of any one location seeing storms is quite low — just be sure to have an indoor backup plan in case it’s needed briefly. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!
Temperatures will fall into the mid-70s in the evening, and any showers should be long gone by the time Nduduzo Makhathini takes the Cistern stage at Spoleto tomorrow night.
Finally, don’t forget to take a pause tomorrow to honor those we’ve lost in combat and their families. That’s why a lot of us are off, after all.
Memorial Day weekend in the Lowcountry looks quite seasonable — highs in the upper 80s, lows in the upper 60s, and partly cloudy skies for Saturday and Sunday as a front stalls offshore, but far enough offshore to keep us in some nicer weather. Indeed, we should stay mostly rain-free for the long weekend, though there will be a chance for a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms Monday as a little more moisture begins to work back into the area. All in all, though, things are looking pretty good to get outside.
We’ll get off to a warm, humid, and perhaps a stormy start to the Memorial Day weekend, but a late-season cold front will make the weather very pleasant for Sunday and Monday.
A cold front, which as of publish time was draped over the Mid-South from Kentucky southward through Tennessee and far northwest Mississippi, will be advancing eastward toward the coast on Saturday. Atmospheric moisture will surge ahead of the front, providing a more hospitable atmosphere for afternoon showers and thunderstorms than we have seen in the past week or so. Temperatures will top out around 90° before scattered storms kick in ahead of the front. Brief downpours will be possible, but no severe weather is expected. (In fact, not everyone may even get rain.)
The front will get through overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. We’ll start Sunday about 10° cooler than we started Saturday, with lows in the low 60s away from the locally warmer coast. Highs will top out in the low 80s, a little below normal for late May, and will feel pretty great after a week of 90s. This comfortable warmth continues into Monday with a little bit more blue sky to boot. Overall, not too bad — we need the rain, and it’s awfully nice to enter June in the mid-80s rather than the upper 90s!
We’ll be back in the 90s today — perhaps for the last day for a little while — as the lingering effects of high pressure aloft remain for one more day before a front moves into the area on Saturday. Unlike yesterday, an earlier seabreeze progression will keep highs capped around 90-91°. (Yesterday’s high was 94°, tying Monday for warmest so far in 2021.) A shower or two can’t be totally ruled out as the seabreeze progresses inland, but with dry air remaining in place for one more day, coverage will be limited.
UPDATED at 6:30 PM: The National Weather Service in Charleston has confirmed a tornado on Johns Island yesterday. The tornado went a little over 3/4 of a mile along Chisholm Road, downing trees and power lines before dissipating over Church Creek. The storm survey team also found straight-line wind damage along Maybank Highway between Angel Oak Road and Oak Grove Road.
