While we probably won’t get off to as stormy of a start as we did on Sunday, expect another round of showers and storms to kick off by afternoon on Memorial Day. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s, warming to the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon before thunderstorms once again kick off with a stalled front in the vicinity. The risk for severe weather remains on the low side, but heavy rain and lightning will still be enough to disrupt outdoor plans at times. Storm motions will be toward the coast as well, so be especially alert for thunderstorms at the beaches. Remember, all thunderstorms are dangerous due to the lightning they produce. If you see lightning or hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck, and should move inside.
We’ll also want to pay close attention to the flooding threat not only from training thunderstorms but also the evening high tide, which should peak between 7.1-7.3’ MLLW around 8:16 PM. If thunderstorms are in the area around that time (as some models seem to suggest), this could indicate a greater flooding threat for vulnerable locations in downtown Charleston. This will certainly be something to watch as the day progresses. Stay alert for possible flood advisories from the National Weather Service.
Generally quiet weather featuring plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures will bring us into Memorial Day Weekend as high pressure builds in at the surface for a couple days. Friday will start in the low-to-mid-60s and warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon with low humidity. It’ll still be a bit breezy, but not to the extent as we saw on Thursday.
A reprieve from the early-season stretch of 90° temperatures commences Thursday in the wake of a cold front. We’ll start the day noticeably cooler and drier than previous days, with lows bottoming out in the mid-60s as opposed to the low 70s. Highs will still run a little warmer than normal, but upper 80s will still represent cooler highs, especially on the heels of highs in the low 90s the past few days. Despite the warmer-than-normal temperatures, the lower dewpoints in the mid-50s will send relative humidity values down to around 30% or so during the day, so at least any sweat will have a chance to do its thing to cool you off.
The unseasonable warmth of the past week and change will draw to a close on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. We’ll start Wednesday in the mid-70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. There’s a chance for a storm or two ahead of the front, but it’s conceivable that many of us may not see any rain at all with this frontal passage. If a storm or two can get going, it could turn strong to severe, but the chances are very low.
Expect less in the way of cloud cover on Tuesday as the front that helped focus some shower and thunderstorm activity across the area on Monday meanders north and high pressure builds in aloft with plenty of dry, sinking air to be found. We’ll stay on the toasty side of normal for mid-May, with lows in the low 70s warming to the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints aren’t terribly out of control, thankfully, so heat indices won’t be too much of a factor, only running about 2-3° or so above the air temperature. That said, it’s still quite warm for this point in the year — the normal high for May 20 is 84°.
We are through the worst of our experience with the coastal storm that has been bothering us for the better part of two days, and improvement will start to show itself on Sunday. We should see showers mostly shut down around daybreak or so, but I’m not sure a stray or two can be totally discounted throughout the day. We should start to see some breaks in the clouds, and by the evening, I suspect we’ll have at least some sunshine to close out the day. Temperatures will remain well below normal for this point in the year, topping out in the low 70s after starting the day around 60°.
Well, this is a really unusual Memorial Day weekend forecast, to put it mildly. Showers will be ongoing as we wake up Saturday with gusty winds and quite a chill in the air. We start the day in the upper 50s — well below normal for this point in the year. Showers and north winds will keep temperatures capped in the mid-60s. To give you a general idea of how abnormal this is for this point in May, the normal low is 66°, and the NWS forecast is 67°. That’ll be one degree off the record low maximum if it verifies.
Wet weather will kick off the Memorial Day weekend as a low pressure system rides up the coast and affects the Carolinas with heavy rain, gusty winds, rough surf, strong rip currents, and very hazardous marine conditions. It’s also going to be very unseasonably cool, at least to start — think highs in the 60s for Saturday. (Seriously.)
Friday will start in the upper 50s (the normal low for May 26 is 66°, for comparison) and only warm to the low 70s with cloud cover and increasing shower activity throughout the day. Winds will be breezy, coming in from the northeast around 20 MPH with higher gusts. The best chance for showers will begin in the evening hours and last well into Saturday as the low pressure system comes ashore somewhere between Charleston and Wilmington.
Memorial Day across the Lowcountry, while not nearly as springlike as last year’s, will feel appropriate as the unofficial start of summer. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the locally warmer coastline, heading into the upper 80s to near 90° away from the beaches by afternoon before the seabreeze rolls through. Temperatures at the beaches will top out in the low to mid-80s, making for a really good day to get some sun. (Just mind the high UV index and apply sunscreen liberally!)
There’s a tiny chance we could see a shower or storm in the morning as a little energy ripples on by, but that risk is rather low. The better — albeit still slight, all things considered — chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm comes in the afternoon as we reach peak heating along and ahead of the seabreeze. Winds are onshore throughout a good bit of the atmosphere as surface high pressure remains offshore and a 585-588 decameter ridge remains centered over eastern North Carolina, so this should allow for the seabreeze to make good movement inland throughout the afternoon, limiting the risk for any thunderstorms near the beaches especially after 2PM. With limited to no wind shear to work with, thunderstorms will be pulse in nature and thus pop and subsequently collapse. All this to say, though, that the risk of any one location seeing storms is quite low — just be sure to have an indoor backup plan in case it’s needed briefly. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!
Temperatures will fall into the mid-70s in the evening, and any showers should be long gone by the time Nduduzo Makhathini takes the Cistern stage at Spoleto tomorrow night.
Finally, don’t forget to take a pause tomorrow to honor those we’ve lost in combat and their families. That’s why a lot of us are off, after all.
