Warm and muggy conditions can be expected for the rest of the work week, with some periods of thunderstorms possible especially Wednesday and Thursday.
Tuesday starts around 70° and warms to near 90° in the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible, particularly further inland near the I-95 corridor. Not everyone will see storms, and the Charleston metro area in particular should be clear of any unsettled weather by evening in the wake of the seabreeze.
Disturbances aloft working with ample instability will maximize shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday. The best risk for storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather isn’t expected, though storms could pack some gusty winds where outflow boundaries collide. Temperatures Wednesday top out once again near 90°, while we turn even warmer on Thursday with highs in the low to mid-90s. Given dewpoints in the low 70s, we could get close to heat indices around 100°.
A front approaches the area on Friday, but drier air will be working its way in, so while temperatures will be similar to Thursday (low to mid-90s), dewpoints will be trending lower. This should also keep the thunderstorm risk a little more at bay, leading into a generally quiet weekend.
Quieter weather looks to generally be in store for the rest of the abbreviated work week as temperatures run on a cooling trend heading toward the weekend (and the end of May). We start Wednesday in the mid-to-upper 60s, warming to around 90° in the afternoon. Yes, still quite warm, but with some drier air aloft mixing dewpoints down to the mid-50s, relative humidity values will be in the 30-45% range. Expect just a few clouds from time to time with no expectation of any seabreeze showers or thunderstorms.
A bit more in the way of cloud cover arrives Thursday into Friday as a weak front approaches. Thursday’s highs run in the mid-to-upper 80s, while Friday’s highs run solidly in the mid-80s. Showers don’t appear likely, but can’t be totally ruled out with the frontal passage later Thursday into Friday. Dewpoints remain reasonably tame, though slightly cooler temperatures will elevate the relative humidity a little bit. All in all, not a bad end to May (and climatological spring).
The forecast for the rest of the work week is fairly straightforward: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with temperatures gradually getting warmer (with dewpoints unfortunately following suit) as time goes on. Wednesday will feature one more cool start in the low 60s before warming to the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will mix out to the low 60s, so it won’t feel too bad. They’ll start to climb into the upper 60s on Thursday, though, as highs reach 90° in the afternoon. With the additional humidity, expect heat indices to run a few degrees warmer. Friday continues the warming trend, with highs once again in the low 90s and dewpoints creeping up even further to the 70° mark making for another warm and muggy day.
While the rest of the work week looks to remain rain-free, slight shower and thunderstorm chances will figure into the forecast as we head into the Memorial Day weekend. It doesn’t look like a rainout, but you’ll want to have indoor backup plans in case thunderstorms threaten.
Finally, a programming note: I’m taking the next few days off for some much-needed downtime. Posts will be scattershot at best. As always, the latest NWS forecast is on the chswx.com homepage. See y’all next week!
We have another nice day ahead Tuesday. We’ll start the day in the low 60s once again, with highs topping out in the low-to-mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. It’ll be a touch breezy, with winds out of the northeast once again around 10 MPH, but this is what’s keeping us a little on the cooler side, so we’ll take it.
The only weather concern will be the risk for water levels peaking in minor flood stage again with the Tuesday evening high tide. Minor coastal flooding looks probable between 7-9 PM with water levels peaking around 7.1’. It’ll be enough to cover the more vulnerable roads once again with salt water, but it won’t be a widespread issue.
Expect generally quieter but warmer conditions for the second half of the work week as high pressure gives us a respite before another unsettled period commences Saturday.
Wednesday will feature a mix of clouds and sun that’ll help drive temperatures into the mid-80s in the afternoon after a start near 70°. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and early evening as a weak front moves through the area, and a strong wind gust or two can’t be ruled out in the stronger storms.
High pressure is the main weather driver on Thursday, yielding a fairly quiet and warm day across the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s, warming to the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon with just some passing clouds from time to time. Friday should remain mostly quiet with temperatures once again starting in the mid-60s before yielding to mid-80s in the afternoon. High pressure will be departing ahead of our next disturbance, and there’s still some question as to how soon showers and thunderstorms arrive in the area as a result. So, for now, there’s a slight chance we could see some activity Friday night, but it’s more likely that unsettled weather holds off until Saturday.
Tuesday figures to be a fairly active weather day with a couple rounds of storms expected. The first one will be ongoing as we wake up and commute; periods of heavy rain will be possible within thunderstorms, so be ready for delays in the morning. One other twist will be in the form of a warm front that will lift north across the area as we get into mid-morning; this could enhance low-level shear enough where the environment might support a brief tornado (though this risk is fairly low all things considered). The first round of showers and thunderstorms should get offshore roughly around midday, and many of us will catch a break from the rain early Tuesday afternoon. Heading into mid-to-late afternoon, expect additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to fire across the area. There will be a damaging wind risk within the strongest storms, so you’ll want to keep an ear out for possible weather warnings. Storms will be possible well into the evening before chances head back down around midnight or so.
Temperatures Tuesday start on the warm and muggy side in the mid-to-upper 60s. Expect highs to top out in the low 80s given the expected showers, thunderstorms, and overall cloud cover.
We reached 90° on Tuesday, the third 90° high of the year and the first time since April 20, when we reached 91°. We turn even warmer for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure ridges over the area. Wednesday will feature highs in the low-to-mid-90s under mostly sunny skies. Heat indices won’t get too out of bounds, but it’ll still feel a touch warmer than the air temperature will indicate.
High pressure remains in control to start Thursday, sending us to the mid-90s in the afternoon with heat indices in the mid-to-upper 90s possible. A storm system will approach the area, though, and this will help ignite showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening. Given the moist, unstable, and decently sheared environment, a few of those storms could turn strong or severe. We’ll keep an eye on how things evolve further to our west Wednesday as they’ll inform the situation locally on Thursday. Stay tuned.
Showers and thunderstorms feature prominently in the forecast on Friday as a cold front moves through. A couple stronger storms still can’t be totally discounted in this scenario, though the risk looks lower than Thursday at this point. Temperatures will be governed by clouds and rain, topping out in the mid-80s. Once the front gets through late Friday/early Saturday, cooler and drier air moves in for what should be a rather nice weekend!
We may contend with a storm or two in the morning, but the weather story for Tuesday will be the return of the 90s in the afternoon. It’ll be a warm start with lows around 70°, but as the ridge aloft builds in, highs top out in the low 90s. If there’s one bit of good news here, it’s that it’s not summer-humid just yet, and dewpoints should run in the mid-60s, keeping heat indices reasonably in check. Cloud cover will be diminishing throughout the day as well, so expect plenty of sunshine as we get into the afternoon and evening hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will arrive in the metro area late Tuesday and last through Wednesday morning before tapering. An isolated storm is possible along the seabreeze in the early afternoon, but otherwise, expect a mostly quiet day of weather across the area for Wednesday. We’ll get started in the mid-60s — about 5° or so above normal for this point in the year — and warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon. These temperatures generally hold true for the rest of the week, too, as high pressure reasserts control. Thursday and Friday will be rain-free, with just a slight uptick in clouds on Friday ahead of a disturbance that brings scattered storm chances to the area for the weekend.
Our next chance of wet weather arrives later Tuesday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area. We start the day on a dry note, though, and not everyone will see rain all the time heading into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect generally partly cloudy skies away from the scattering of storms. Lows will run in the low 60s, yielding to low-to-mid-80s in the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which may have some relatively minor commute impacts depending on how quickly the disturbance can depart. Stay tuned.
