Much of the weather scuttlebutt this week will be about Tropical Storm Idalia, which increasingly looks like it’s going to have impacts on the area Wednesday into Thursday. We have a couple reasonably quiet days ahead before the weather begins to head downhill later Tuesday night. Expect highs on Monday to top out in the low 90s with just a slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze; it’ll be a similar story for a good bit of Tuesday before moisture from Idalia potentially triggers a predecessor rain event along and ahead of a stalled front, which could bring very heavy rain to some spots and maybe even some flooding ahead of the storm’s arrival.

We have a generally quiet week on tap as high pressure is the dominant weather player across the central and eastern US. It’s going to be warm, especially to start the week as dewpoints in the low-to-mid-70s combine with air temperatures in the mid-90s to yield heat indices around 102° on Monday and 105°+ on Tuesday under partly cloudy skies. A front might allow for a couple storms Wednesday before quiet weather resumes to close out the work week. It’ll be a little “cooler” and drier behind the front — dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70° and air temperatures in the low 90s will still run above normal, but heat indices should remain in check as drier air mixes down and limits cloud cover. Isolated storm chances return Saturday afternoon, with a better chance of storms on Sunday as another front approaches the area.

After what ended up being quite a hot weekend, we have a day or two more of advisory-level heat (maybe even warning-level heat in a few spots) before a front moves into the area and brings some more unsettled weather for a few days.

The week ahead gets off to a hot start as westerly winds keep the seabreeze close to the coast for much of the day, driving highs into the mid-to-upper 90s on Monday afternoon. Mix in low-70s dewpoints and heat indices will peak above 105° in the afternoon. From there, a thunderstorm complex will approach the area from the northwest, but it should get here toward the evening and be in a weakening phase as a result. A strong wind gust or two can’t be ruled out, though, especially the further inland you are.

The week ahead starts out unsettled as a front meanders in the area before we “cool off” a bit heading into mid-week as the aforementioned front pushes south, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass. Ridging then builds back in to warm us up later in the week.

Believe it or not, it’s already the last full week of July. Climatologically speaking, this week’s forecast is about as end-of-July as it gets: Mid-70s lows each morning, low 90s highs each afternoon with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances as the trough that made Sunday in particular quite unsettled lifts out and ridging begins to build back in.

Monday could offer up some slightly better shower and storm chances during the day as a little spin remains in the atmosphere, but a repeat of Sunday’s deluge (more on that in a minute) is certainly not in the cards with generally scattered coverage expected.

Mid-week will feature highs generally 92-93° with a few seabreeze showers and thunderstorms each afternoon in a very standard summertime regime with Atlantic ridging firmly in place. If anything, that will get even a little stronger as we head into the weekend; temperatures will respond appropriately by heading back into the mid-90s on Saturday and upper 90s on Sunday. Dewpoints won’t quite be as nasty as they were this past week, but low-70s dewpoints should still yield a period of heat indices 104-106°.

High pressure will ridge into the area for much of the new week ahead, sending air temperatures up and thunderstorm chances down before weakening into the weekend, bringing back a better chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

The week ahead will feature what passes for a “cooldown” in mid-July followed by a return to temperatures running a few degrees above normal for this point in the year. But first, a soggy Monday as showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front take center stage. Some very heavy rain is possible, with another 1-2″ of rain possible across the area with locally higher amounts. We’ll have to watch for the potential for flooding as storms could train across some of the same spots repeatedly; there is also the matter of the 3:07 PM high tide to be concerned about, too, for downtown Charleston. The clouds and rain will keep highs in the mid-80s for the first time since June 23rd, so at least there’s a brief break from the heat. (Silver linings, etc.)

Hot weather continues to start the week before yielding to more numerous showers and thunderstorms starting mid-week. (It’ll still be hot and humid, though.)

We open the week with the risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms, and get much warmer thereafter as we say goodbye to June and welcome in July, with the first heat advisories of the season possible by the weekend.