As we head into mid-week and look to round the corner toward Labor Day weekend, we’re going to see a reduction in shower and thunderstorm coverage for a few days as some drier air aloft works in from the north and west. We’ll keep isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast as those probabilities won’t be totally eliminated, particularly near the coast, but we shouldn’t see the sustained flooding rains that have been a concern the past couple days. Areas further inland could even see a rain-free couple days, especially on Thursday as a front clears the area and stalls to our south.
As rain chances diminish, temperatures turn back up to a little above normal as we close out August and enter September. Expect highs around 90° for Wednesday; mix in the plentiful humidity and it’ll feel closer to 100-102°. Thursday will run pretty warm, too, with highs around 90° and heat indices in the upper 90s once again expected. Rain chances begin to tick back up on Friday, and that’ll lead to high temperatures topping out a little lower than the previous couple days, generally in the mid-to-upper 80s.
More wet weather is on the way as we remain in a rather unsettled pattern heading into the first days of September (and meteorological fall!)
We’ll likely start Monday with showers and maybe some thunderstorms in the metro area as offshore storms make a run to the coast. Be ready for a somewhat complicated commute due to rain. It’ll be worth watching downtown around high tide just before 10am, too, for the potential for heavy rain to combine with said tide to possibly produce some street flooding. Storms and their associated pockets of heavy rain will continue to spread inland throughout the day. Rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures suppressed to the low 80s.
We stay unsettled heading into Tuesday as a front moves toward the area. Thunderstorms will become likely once again in the afternoon, though temperatures will have a little more time to rebound into the upper 80s. Expect more scattered coverage Wednesday as a little drier air aloft moves in, which will allow temperatures to head into the low 90s in the afternoon ahead of the front. The front moves by Thursday and stalls out to the south, which will help keep moisture in place and the risk for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast as we head into the Labor Day weekend. As is customary for late summer, there will not be any day that’s a total washout — just have backup plans for any outdoorsy things you might have going on.
Atlantic high pressure keeps us appropriately warm and muggy by early August standards for tomorrow into the weekend. Onshore flow will help air temperatures run in the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, while humidity will make it feel closer to the upper 90s and low 100s.
The aforementioned onshore flow keeps a chance of showers in the forecast Friday morning closer to the coast. Rain chances will migrate inland with time, with a few thunderstorms possible as the seabreeze pushes inland across the area during the afternoon and early evening hours. Saturday’s setup looks similar, too, though the NAM nest is a little less excited about morning showers. Sunday could be a little more active as what looks like a weak TUTT (tropical upper-tropospheric trough) whirls into the area from the east, helping to enhance shower and storm coverage across the area. Overall, the risk for severe weather remains low, but as always, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. When thunder roars, go indoors!
All in all, expect another nice weekend across the Lowcountry as a little cooler air works down into the area over the next few days. Temperatures will generally top out in the low to mid-80s across the area, with lows in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s near the coast. Aside from a small risk for a shower or storm tonight, particularly in the upper reaches of the Tri-County, our next appreciable rain chance doesn’t arrive until next Tuesday.
The tropics remain busy, but Hurricane Sam and recently-minted Tropical Storm Victor are staying out to sea and are not threats to the Lowcountry. We may see some enhanced rip current risk and wave action from Sam over the next few days, so be aware of this risk if the beach is in your plans. Otherwise, no concerns. Fingers crossed it stays this way — we’ve got two months to go in what has been a very busy 2021 hurricane season.
The temperature curve is very much respecting Wednesday as Hump Day with highs topping out in the upper 80s, as high as they’ll get this week before gradually coming down for Thursday and Friday as a dry cold front sinks south across the area. Mornings will remain a little on the warmer side, with upper 60s to low 70s common across the metro area, warmest near the beaches and coolest inland.
We’ll remain rain-free despite a front coming through Thursday as moisture remains in limited supply. In fact, the first appreciable rain chance we’ve seen in more than a week will probably arrive on Monday or Tuesday, and even then right now the chances are pretty slim.
The tropics remain busy as Hurricane Sam continues to churn in the Atlantic. There are also two areas of interest in the far eastern Atlantic that are very likely to exhaust the primary name list for the second consecutive season, but neither those areas nor Sam are a threat to the Carolinas as we move into October.
We will close out September with a weather winning streak intact. Temperatures will gradually moderate into the mid-to-upper 80s as we get into midweek with mostly sunny skies each day. We could see a front swing through later in the week; while it will be moisture-starved, it might be able to squeeze out a storm or two. Then, back into the low 80s for the weekend, with mostly sunny skies prevailing. Not a bad way to close out the month and head into the fourth quarter of 2021 (already!).
We will remain in a warm and muggy regime on Friday into the weekend as tropical moisture remains in place over the area. We should see a little less shower and storm coverage on Friday as compared to today without much in the way of forcing, but a few airmass thunderstorms will be possible especially ahead of the seabreeze. Saturday looks similar right now as forcing mechanisms remain few and far between. Heading into Sunday, though, upper-level energy will rotate into the area, and this should help enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage especially in the afternoon and evening hours. A total washout is not in the cards, though, so don’t go torching your weekend plans — just keep an eye on the forecast as there will be adjustments and fine-tuning throughout the weekend.
Temperature-wise, we’ll remain generally in the mid-80s each afternoon after starting out in the low 70s each morning (with perhaps some upper 70s to around 80° lows close to the coast, including downtown). Temperatures should be knocked down a peg for Sunday given more expansive cloud cover and shower and thunderstorm activity in the region.
Dewpoints are headed up, and that will bring along a slight chance of thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon, primarily along and ahead of the seabreeze boundary as it moves inland. We’ll start the day in the low 70s across much of the area before temperatures head into the mid-80s in the afternoon. It won’t be sweltering, but it won’t exactly be fall-like, either.
It’s worth noting that we could see some patchy fog in spots tomorrow morning. Be ready for sudden changes in visibility during the commute, and don’t forget the low beams if you do encounter fog.
After a really nice weekend across the Lowcountry, we’ll get one more day of low humidity for Monday before high pressure weakens and retreats eastward, bringing back a more summer-like feel to the forecast (sans 90° temperatures, at least). Slight storm chances begin Tuesday afternoon, with more scattered coverage expected each afternoon through the weekend. Temperatures look to remain generally in the mid-to-upper 80s each afternoon, with lows rising into the low to mid-70s starting Tuesday.
We have a soggy Thursday coming up as Tropical Storm Mindy, which was named and made landfall on the Florida Panhandle in the space of four hours earlier this evening, moves to our south, bringing along a tropical airmass that will help squeeze out quite a bit of rain particularly in the morning. High tide at 10:19 AM will be of particular interest as high-resolution models strongly suggest that heavy rain will be in the area ahead of and around that time. This could spell a flooding concern for downtown Charleston depending on where the heaviest rain sets up. Be cautious during tomorrow morning’s commute, and be ready to use alternate routes.
The heaviest rain will fall in the morning, but there will be the risk of showers and thunderstorms through the evening as a cold front will move through the area. Once that front’s through, though, we’ll be set up for a nice weekend. Meanwhile, Mindy will be shooed away from the area along the aforementioned cold front, and there are no additional tropical concerns of note for now.
Temperatures will top out just in the low 80s thanks to the prevalent cloud cover and rainfall, well below early September norms. As we head into Friday and the weekend, temperatures will continue to run a little below normal — another taste of fall as we head deeper into September.
@chswx is community-supported, hype-averse weather information, preparedness tips, and alerts for the Charleston, SC Tri-County area (Berkeley, Charleston, Dorchester counties) by Jared Smith.