Our solid start to October continues on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures continuing with high pressure in control. The only potential issue will be the risk for moderate coastal flooding with high tide just before noon; there could be travel disruptions as some of y’all look to grab lunch, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, though, it’ll be another very nice day.

A blocking pattern aloft will keep our weather relatively quiet for much of the week before a front approaches heading into the weekend, which might deliver the first real shot of fall weather to the area for early next week.

Cloud cover will generally be sparse through Wednesday as high pressure remains firmly in control across the area. Our mornings will generally start in the low to mid-60s with highs topping out in the low 80s each afternoon with plenty of sunshine to be had. Cloud cover begins to tick up a bit for Thursday into Friday as the aforementioned front begins to approach the area. It remains to be seen just how much moisture moves back into the area; for now, the forecast remains rain-free, though it wouldn’t shock me to see some shower or thunderstorm chances added as we head into Friday. Saturday should feature decreasing clouds, and then it looks like a reinforcing shot of cooler air moves in for Sunday that could knock temperatures well below normal for this point in the year. We aren’t into sweater weather yet, but we’re making progress!

After a fairly cool and cloudy day on Thursday, cloud cover breaks up a bit for Friday into the weekend, and this will allow temperatures to return to the low to mid-80s each afternoon. Temperatures will peak Saturday before a little cooler air works into the area Sunday. Overall, it looks pretty good to get out and do stuff, especially with the northeasterly winds backing off a bit more as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Rain will generally be a non-factor in our weather starting Thursday (except for maybe some brushes near the coast) heading into Friday and the rest of the weekend. We start the day around 65° with some cloud cover in the area. A northeasterly breeze courtesy of high pressure wedging into the area from the northeast will continue to keep temperatures down to about 80° at warmest in the afternoon with cloud cover hanging around. We should see some sun break through at times as well, though.

The main weather concern will be coastal flooding at times of high tide, and it could be somewhat disruptive to the morning commute in particular. High tide around 7:30am will top out around 7.9′, which is the high end of moderate flood stage in Charleston Harbor. The evening high tide should reach even higher, with water levels around 8.1′ expected around 8pm. Watch for road closures as you commute Thursday morning and then again a little later Thursday evening, particularly if downtown is in your plans.

High pressure wedging into the area will keep us on the somewhat cool and cloudy side for the next few days, with shower chances peaking Wednesday before tapering off for Thursday and Friday (though cloud cover and the occasional shower or storm will linger). Highs on Wednesday and Thursday shouldn’t get out of the upper 70s, while we may trend a little warmer Friday as some drier air begins to work in and a little more sunshine becomes possible.

We have one more day of the upper 80s in store before changes arrive in the form of a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast for the rest of the week. Tuesday starts in the upper 60s inland to perhaps mid-to-upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs then head into the upper 80s once more, and with dewpoints edging up into the upper 60s, it’ll feel closer to 90° or so. From there, clouds will increase and a few showers should break out in the afternoon, though nothing over-the-top is really expected. There may be a rumble of thunder late, but overall, not expecting much in the way of lightning. Shower chances continue into the evening, and really for much of the rest of the work week from there.

We may be past the autumnal equinox, but Monday clearly looks to have missed the memo as it brings back a bit of summer before temperatures fall back below normal later this week. Dry air will keep skies mostly clear, and a bit of shortwave ridging will help highs top out around 90° in the afternoon after starting the day in the upper 60s to around 70° at the coast. From there, though, changes will be afoot as high pressure anchored in New England starts to wedge into the area beginning Tuesday. This will drive high temperatures from the mid-80s on Tuesday to the low 80s by Wednesday, with below-normal highs lasting into the weekend. A trough developing offshore will help keep shower chances in play for much of the week, primarily in the afternoons, though it’s worth noting that we’ll likely get some sunshine in as well at times. Northeasterly winds will turn breezy as we head into the second part of the week, and this could drive some coastal flooding concerns through the weekend. Some of the guidance is spitting out some fairly high tides, but it’s also worth noting that this guidance isn’t really that awesome and often goes to extremes. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

We’ll continue to deal with the fringes of Tropical Storm Ophelia on Saturday, though the weather will be gradually improving as time goes on. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and cloud cover, and northwest to westerly winds will still be a little elevated. However, as the day goes on and Ophelia moves further away, we’ll see those winds slacken and some of that cloud cover begin to break a little. The cooler and drier air wrapping around Ophelia will keep temperatures on the low side, with highs topping out in the upper 70s after a comfortable start in the low 60s.

Ophelia will have exited the weather picture on Sunday, and we’ll see much more sunshine and, overall, a warmer day as a result. Expect highs to top out in the mid-to-upper 80s after starting the day in the mid-60s. Winds will have backed down to generally light speeds, too, making for a nice day to get outside a bit. Try to take advantage, if you can!

The weather for Friday and at least the first part of the weekend will be dictated in part by Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, which is forecast to become a tropical storm — probably named Ophelia unless an Atlantic wave develops faster than forecast — as it approaches the NC Outer Banks this weekend. We will stay well on the western periphery of the storm and only feel the occasional shower on Friday, with a gusty breeze for most of us. It will be a rough go at the beaches — probably not the best day to go with gusty winds, high surf, rip currents, and some afternoon coastal flooding around the 1:45 PM high tide. Erosion is certainly not out of the question as well. Highs on Friday top out in the low 80s.

Showers depart by Saturday as maybe-Ophelia moves northward away from us. We start the day in the low 60s with temperatures heading into the low 80s once again under mostly cloudy skies. We should see some breaks in the clouds develop particularly as we get later into the day, though. Winds will remain somewhat breezy, but not to the degree we’ll see Friday.

Sunday is the pick day of the weekend as far as outside stuff goes; lows in the low 60s give way to highs in the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. Another plus to Sunday: Winds will have tapered off considerably, too, as maybe-Ophelia loses tropical characteristics around the Delmarva Peninsula.

Rain-free conditions come to an end Thursday as we should see some scattered showers from time to time courtesy of developing low pressure well offshore. We’ll get off to a much warmer start than the previous couple days, with lows across the metro in the upper 60s to around 70°. Expect a scattering of showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder throughout the day, coming ashore within onshore flow. A few heavy downpours can’t be ruled out. Highs top out in the low 80s.

We’ll get close to coastal flood stage with Thursday afternoon’s high tide, forecast to peak around 12:41 PM, thanks to the increasing northeasterly flow, which tends to pile water up quite efficiently, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that in case some salt water works into the area.