After an unusually cool and cloudy early-August day across the Lowcountry, in which highs largely did not breach 80° (good for a new record cool high temperature at North Charleston, breaking the record of 80° set just last year), we should see a bit more warmer air tomorrow as the high pressure wedge which reasserted itself today weakens a bit toward the coast. This will allow the seabreeze to get going a bit more, setting us up for an afternoon of scattered storms, with the best risk of precipitation generally east of 17-A. Lows in the low 70s will warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon — still several degrees below normal for this point in August — but it’ll still be somewhat muggy.
The rest of the work week will remain unsettled as the frontal zone that’s been hanging around for several days begins to trek back toward the coast, cooling us back off a little bit but keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
We remain on the cool side of normal on Tuesday, though a few more breaks in the clouds should allow temperatures to turn warmer, with highs approaching the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon after starting the day in the low 70s. Periods of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible, though it won’t rain all the time. Some guidance suggests storms kicking off on the seabreeze later in the afternoon, which could produce some heavy downpours considering the continued feed of moisture and energy from the southwest. Severe weather is not expected, though.
The stalled front to our south which helped bring about much more comfortable temperatures for the weekend will generally meander for the first part of the week as high pressure remains anchored well to the north, keeping our weather periodically unsettled. We’ll then transition back more toward a traditional summer pattern as we head into later in the week.
Tropical Storm Chantal will make landfall overnight somewhere between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach, keeping the risk for some showers around overnight into Sunday. We should see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity as the heating of the day helps to wring out some wrap-around moisture on the southwest side of Chantal’s circulation. Overall, though, this storm hasn’t been a major rainmaker for the area, and that shouldn’t change much on Sunday with the scattered nature of the individual showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected as we sit within the weaker side of Chantal’s circulation, but the risk for rip currents will continue and we should still have some breezy conditions at the beaches and on the bridges. Temperatures will start in the mid-70s again, but highs should stay below 90° for one more day with the clouds and rain in the area (though we should see a decent amount of sun between showers, too).
By the way, our 90° streak ended today at 21 days — the high at the airport topped out around 85°. Don’t worry, though — we’ll kick off a new streak starting Monday, and temperatures for the upcoming work week will certainly have that July feel to them, complete with Advisory-level heat indices.
The weather for the Fourth of July weekend looks a bit on the unsettled side as low pressure — perhaps tropical in nature — spins up offshore and increases the risk for rain near the coast.
Independence Day itself looks okay with a bit of drier air working into the area in the wake of a stalling front. There’s still enough juice for a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze in the afternoon, so be sure you have indoor alternatives to your outdoor plans just in case thunderstorms threaten. Temperatures start in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices will run in the mid-90s to around 100° in the afternoon, particularly in the immediate wake of the seabreeze, so be wary of the heat especially if you are more vulnerable to it.
While storms so far on Wednesday were more off than on, more chances for rain arrive on Thursday with the heating of the day and a stalling front that will be in the neighborhood. Temperatures start in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon — right on the line for what to expect from early July. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain and frequent lightning, and an isolated severe storm can never be ruled out this time of year where boundaries collide.
A cold front will draw nearer to the Lowcountry on Wednesday before stalling out, which will help kick up the risk for thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours. It won’t rain all day, but many of us should measure some rainfall as storms push across the area from west to east through late night. Temperatures in the mid-70s will warm to the upper 80s to around 90°. There’s a chance our 18-day streak of 90°+ highs will come to an end thanks to the proliferation of cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms on Wednesday, but we will see. Regardless, expect a steamy and eventually stormy day across the metro; be ready for rain to cause some slowdowns.
Thursday is looking a little better, though some storms could linger midday. But drier air will be moving in, and we should see improving conditions by evening. It’ll be another warm day, with highs returning to the 90s in the afternoon after another mid-70s start.
The rest of the work week will turn increasingly stormy as a cold front encroaches on the area by midweek. A trough aloft will help drive the front close to the area — but not quite through — and contribute to an influx in lift and moisture that’ll bring us scattered to numerous thunderstorms, particularly on Wednesday.
