Big (but brief, for now) changes are incoming for our weather in the wake of a cold front that will get through during the day Saturday. First, though, we may dodge a shower or two in the morning as the front gets by, but from there the trend will be for fewer clouds and an uptick in northwesterly winds. We’ll start Saturday in the mid-60s and warm to the low 80s in the early afternoon before cooler air starts to filter in. Dewpoints will drop precipitously starting in the evening, and by Sunday morning, things are going to feel a lot different.
On Sunday, we’ll get off to the coolest start we’ve had since the morning of May 4 with lows bottoming out in the low 50s across the metro. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 40s in more rural areas. Full sunshine will be in play, but the cooler air moving in will help counteract it, allowing highs to only climb into the low 70s. Bottom line: Take Saturday to make sure your light jackets or hoodies are ready to go because you may very well need them on Sunday! We keep the cooler air going into Monday, but it will be short-lived and we’ll be back closer to normal by mid-next week.
The past couple days have been marred somewhat by wildfire smoke moving southwest from Canada, and it looks like that may persist at least into parts of Wednesday as well. There could be some air quality impacts, so if you are sensitive to particulate matter, you may want to spend a little more time inside. (Masks such as N95s will help here, too!) Smoke aside, the weather is otherwise quiet; lows bottom out in the low 60s once again and head into the low 80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. We’ll also need to keep an eye on the midday high tide for one more round of minor coastal flooding, but that should do it for this stretch of coastal flooding events with some pattern changes in the offing.
We should see improvements with the smoke heading into Thursday, but cloud cover will begin to creep up as a little more moisture starts to work into the area. We should stay rain-free, though a shower might not be totally out of bounds. Highs once again top out in the low-to-mid-80s.
Warmth peaks Friday as ever-so-slightly higher dewpoint air continues to move in. We start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s and top out in the mid-80s with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm or two in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Said front moves by Saturday, and by Sunday, temperatures are very fall-like.
Our solid start to October continues on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures continuing with high pressure in control. The only potential issue will be the risk for moderate coastal flooding with high tide just before noon; there could be travel disruptions as some of y’all look to grab lunch, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, though, it’ll be another very nice day.
A blocking pattern aloft will keep our weather relatively quiet for much of the week before a front approaches heading into the weekend, which might deliver the first real shot of fall weather to the area for early next week.
Cloud cover will generally be sparse through Wednesday as high pressure remains firmly in control across the area. Our mornings will generally start in the low to mid-60s with highs topping out in the low 80s each afternoon with plenty of sunshine to be had. Cloud cover begins to tick up a bit for Thursday into Friday as the aforementioned front begins to approach the area. It remains to be seen just how much moisture moves back into the area; for now, the forecast remains rain-free, though it wouldn’t shock me to see some shower or thunderstorm chances added as we head into Friday. Saturday should feature decreasing clouds, and then it looks like a reinforcing shot of cooler air moves in for Sunday that could knock temperatures well below normal for this point in the year. We aren’t into sweater weather yet, but we’re making progress!
After a fairly cool and cloudy day on Thursday, cloud cover breaks up a bit for Friday into the weekend, and this will allow temperatures to return to the low to mid-80s each afternoon. Temperatures will peak Saturday before a little cooler air works into the area Sunday. Overall, it looks pretty good to get out and do stuff, especially with the northeasterly winds backing off a bit more as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Rain will generally be a non-factor in our weather starting Thursday (except for maybe some brushes near the coast) heading into Friday and the rest of the weekend. We start the day around 65° with some cloud cover in the area. A northeasterly breeze courtesy of high pressure wedging into the area from the northeast will continue to keep temperatures down to about 80° at warmest in the afternoon with cloud cover hanging around. We should see some sun break through at times as well, though.
The main weather concern will be coastal flooding at times of high tide, and it could be somewhat disruptive to the morning commute in particular. High tide around 7:30am will top out around 7.9′, which is the high end of moderate flood stage in Charleston Harbor. The evening high tide should reach even higher, with water levels around 8.1′ expected around 8pm. Watch for road closures as you commute Thursday morning and then again a little later Thursday evening, particularly if downtown is in your plans.
High pressure wedging into the area will keep us on the somewhat cool and cloudy side for the next few days, with shower chances peaking Wednesday before tapering off for Thursday and Friday (though cloud cover and the occasional shower or storm will linger). Highs on Wednesday and Thursday shouldn’t get out of the upper 70s, while we may trend a little warmer Friday as some drier air begins to work in and a little more sunshine becomes possible.
We have one more day of the upper 80s in store before changes arrive in the form of a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast for the rest of the week. Tuesday starts in the upper 60s inland to perhaps mid-to-upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs then head into the upper 80s once more, and with dewpoints edging up into the upper 60s, it’ll feel closer to 90° or so. From there, clouds will increase and a few showers should break out in the afternoon, though nothing over-the-top is really expected. There may be a rumble of thunder late, but overall, not expecting much in the way of lightning. Shower chances continue into the evening, and really for much of the rest of the work week from there.
We may be past the autumnal equinox, but Monday clearly looks to have missed the memo as it brings back a bit of summer before temperatures fall back below normal later this week. Dry air will keep skies mostly clear, and a bit of shortwave ridging will help highs top out around 90° in the afternoon after starting the day in the upper 60s to around 70° at the coast. From there, though, changes will be afoot as high pressure anchored in New England starts to wedge into the area beginning Tuesday. This will drive high temperatures from the mid-80s on Tuesday to the low 80s by Wednesday, with below-normal highs lasting into the weekend. A trough developing offshore will help keep shower chances in play for much of the week, primarily in the afternoons, though it’s worth noting that we’ll likely get some sunshine in as well at times. Northeasterly winds will turn breezy as we head into the second part of the week, and this could drive some coastal flooding concerns through the weekend. Some of the guidance is spitting out some fairly high tides, but it’s also worth noting that this guidance isn’t really that awesome and often goes to extremes. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
We’ll continue to deal with the fringes of Tropical Storm Ophelia on Saturday, though the weather will be gradually improving as time goes on. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and cloud cover, and northwest to westerly winds will still be a little elevated. However, as the day goes on and Ophelia moves further away, we’ll see those winds slacken and some of that cloud cover begin to break a little. The cooler and drier air wrapping around Ophelia will keep temperatures on the low side, with highs topping out in the upper 70s after a comfortable start in the low 60s.
Ophelia will have exited the weather picture on Sunday, and we’ll see much more sunshine and, overall, a warmer day as a result. Expect highs to top out in the mid-to-upper 80s after starting the day in the mid-60s. Winds will have backed down to generally light speeds, too, making for a nice day to get outside a bit. Try to take advantage, if you can!
