Quiet and unseasonably warm weather continues on Tuesday. Expect to start the day in the low 70s, warming to the upper 80s to around 90° in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the low 70s will yield heat indices in the mid-90s — not necessarily oppressive but certainly unpleasant considering where we are on the calendar. The ridge aloft will keep a lid on any shower activity, so no concerns there as we start to look ahead toward impacts from what is currently Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine later this week.

Well, it might be fall, but our local weather will continue to betray the calendar for a few more days as Atlantic high pressure to our east and ridging aloft keeps things warmer than normal as we head into the last week of September (already?). Then, things turn a little more interesting as we watch for the potential for a tropical cyclone to move northward through the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on how far east the storm develops and tracks, it’s possible we may see some impacts here at home, but it’s very tough to say exactly what that will look like just yet.

High pressure ridging in at the surface and aloft will make for a quiet and warm weekend of weather across the Lowcountry.

Clouds will still be around Friday as one more piece of energy ripples through before the high pressure ridge takes over. Rain isn’t expected, though a shower can’t be completely discounted. Expect highs in the mid-80s after an upper 60s start.

Despite the autumnal equinox on Sunday, the weekend will feel increasingly more like summer as highs climb into the mid-and-upper 80s each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. The high pressure ridge aloft will also keep a lid on much in the way of showers and thunderstorms (much less cloud cover). Not the worst set of days for an offseason beach visit, IMHO.

We’ve got one more day of unsettled weather as low pressure aloft and at the surface mosey their way on out of here ahead of what should be a nice weekend. After a generally nice start in the upper 60s, a mix of sun and clouds will send temperatures up to the mid-80s in the afternoon before a few showers and thunderstorms break out with the heating of the day. Not everyone sees rain, but some heavy downpours will be possible in a few spots once again. Severe weather is not expected.

The area of disturbed weather along the lingering stationary front we’ve been watching for a few days off the coast has been tagged as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight this evening, prompting a Tropical Storm Warning from Edisto Beach to Ocracoke Inlet, NC, including the Charleston metro area. It brings with it some breezy rain and an increased coastal flood risk for Monday, but is not expected to be a high-end event for the Lowcountry. Its stay will be brief, with warming and generally quiet weather in the offing for the rest of the week.

A complex forecast lies ahead this weekend as we monitor for the potential for low pressure to spin up off the coast, which has a shot at potentially becoming tropical as it approaches the coast early next week.

Cloud cover will continue on Thursday as moisture from Hurricane Francine, which has made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 MPH, continues to push northward across the Southeast and into the Lowcountry. High pressure will try to hang on across the East Coast, though Francine will continue to dislodge it north and east. Moisture moving atop high pressure will create plenty of clouds and may be enough to get a few showers going in the afternoon as well, though many of us should stay dry for one more day. We start Thursday around 70°, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon despite the cloud cover.

Below-normal temperatures will continue this week as we remain under in the influence of high pressure anchored to the northeast, with showers taking a break for a few days before returning to the forecast for the weekend.

A few lingering showers will be possible Monday morning with a stationary front nearby, though high pressure will continue to nudge that front further and further south, clearing us out for a couple nice days. Mostly cloudy skies keep highs capped to the low 80s on Monday after a mid-60s start, but we should see gradual reduction in cloud cover throughout the day. Tuesday looks to be rather nice, with lows in the mid-60s yielding to highs in the mid-80s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. We’ll start to see the front to our south buckle a little more as low pressure — which is forecast to become Hurricane Francine — moves toward the Louisiana Gulf Coast during the middle of the week. This will net us an uptick in cloud cover and dewpoints for Wednesday, but we’ll get one more rain-free day in.

The high pressure center to our northeast that’ll give us a relatively quiet start to the week will be nudged eastward, which will allow the persistent stationary front to retreat a bit northward. This will bring an uptick in shower chances beginning Thursday and lasting into at least Saturday. It won’t rain all the time, but you’ll want to consider indoor plans as a backup to any outdoor plans. High temperatures will head down a bit with the uptick in cloud cover and showers, with highs in the low 80s expected Thursday and Friday before winds get a little more due-east, bringing some warmer temperatures back to the area for the weekend. Still, though, we stay below mid-September norms, generally running in the mid-80s Saturday and Sunday.

It’s a Meat Loaf-like Labor Day weekend this year: Two out of three ain’t bad. We’ll continue this stretch of warm but mostly quiet weather (aside from a stray shower on the seabreeze) for Saturday and Sunday. Expect to start each day in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices will generally run in the upper 90s — certainly still hot, but it could (and has!) been much worse.

Attention then turns to a front that will move into the area on Monday. We’ll see the risk for showers and thunderstorms increase throughout the day as the front sags south into the region. Temperatures will peak around 90° one more time before the front ushers in cooler air and continued unsettled weather as we get into the working portion of next week. Severe weather doesn’t look to be a major concern, but we could see brief periods of heavy rain and lightning from any thunderstorm that fires. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors!

The good news is that much of the upcoming Labor Day weekend is looking pretty good: expect highs generally to run in the low 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the upper 90s expected after taking into account dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. A stray shower or storm can’t be completely ruled out, especially as you head inland, but otherwise we should stay mostly quiet across the area.

A pattern change is in the offing, though, that will help drive a front toward the area for Monday. We’ll start Labor Day in the mid-70s once again, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. As the front pushes southward, the risk for showers and thunderstorms will increase, with a decent shot at some storms arriving by Monday evening. This will kick off a stretch of unsettled — but cooler — weather as the front stalls to our south and high pressure wedges southward across the area. A nearby coastal trough should keep rain chances in place for much of next week, though we have a few more summery days to enjoy before then!