Another chilly start is in store for Wednesday as high pressure to our north keeps some cool air blowing into the area throughout the night. This will send temperatures down to the mid-30s once again, with another shot at freezing in a few more secluded spots. Wind chills will dip below 32° at times in the morning, so be sure to dress appropriately. The good news is that we warm up some compared to Tuesday, heading to the low 60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies.
The brief warmup doesn’t last long, though: a reinforcing cold front comes through overnight Wednesday into Thursday, ushering in strong high pressure that will not only reinforce the chill — expect highs just to top out in the mid-to-upper 50s — but also kick up the northeasterly winds, which will start to drive tidal departures higher as well, which may lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding in the morning. This strong high pressure will lead to another mid-30s start on Friday, with highs struggling to the upper 50s despite mostly sunny skies. We’ll also need to watch Friday morning’s tidal departures for the risk for additional coastal flooding.
So, let’s get this out of the way: If you’re going to do stuff outside this weekend, do it Saturday. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm and there will be plenty of sunshine. Expect to start the day in the low 50s — a good ten degrees or more warmer than many of us started this morning — with highs topping out in the mid-70s in the afternoon. Aside from the risk for a stray coastal shower to sneak ashore at times, much of the metro gets Saturday in rain-free.
Sunday should be a different story. The first thing to note is that it probably won’t rain all day — there will be breaks, especially in the morning and early afternoon. However, winds will be cranking up with gusts approaching 30 MPH (and likely higher on bridges and overpasses, especially closer to the coast) ahead of a band of showers and a few thunderstorms that looks to push through during the mid-afternoon and evening hours. These could bring down some even stronger wind gusts especially inland of 17, but widespread severe weather isn’t expected given a lack of available instability. We should see any thunderstorms weaken as they approach the coast and the locally more stable air thanks to shelf waters in the upper 50s. Still, keep an ear out for possible statements or warnings in case a strong thunderstorm approaches your location.
Rain tapers off overnight Sunday as the front gets by, and it looks like high pressure will keep things on the cool side of normal for much of next week.
Another cool couple days lie ahead as a reinforcing front comes through early Wednesday morning. This will be a pretty solid shot of cool and dry air as high pressure builds in from the west. We’ll start Wednesday in the mid-40s, but the cooler air rushing in will limit the high to around 60° in the afternoon despite primarily sunny skies. It’ll be a bit breezy, with gusty winds out of the northwest at times, so some element of wind-breaking may be ideal.
Thursday will be the coolest day of the week. We’ll start the day in the mid-30s, with inland locations possibly approaching freezing. A light wind will make it feel a little cooler, with wind chills in the low 30s across the metro. Skies will once again be predominantly cloud-free, but the cold high pressure settling in will hold highs to the upper 50s to around 60°.
High pressure slips offshore Friday, and this allows some warmer air to move back in. We start Friday in the upper 30s to around 40°, but temperatures will warm back toward the mid-60s in the afternoon. Clouds will also be increasing as a coastal trough begins to take shape nearby, but rain is not expected.
The weekend will be unseasonably warm with off and on showers, particularly starting Saturday afternoon and lasting into Sunday. The first thing of note will be the low temperatures in the low to mid-60s each morning. The normal high for early December runs around 67° or so…and we’ll be within striking distance of that in the mornings. Afternoon highs will be tempered by cloud cover and shower activity, but will still run well above normal in the mid-70s. As for the rain, it looks to be fairly on and off, with models hinting that a thunderstorm complex moving across the Gulf Coast into Florida may rob some of the moisture transport into the area. This could act to reduce the amount of rain we ultimately receive and may make the weekend look like less of a washout than first thought. We’ll keep an eye on this, but keep rain gear handy anyway and be ready for travel issues, because when it sprinkles, traffic snarls.
We’ll stay chilly over the weekend as high pressure wedges south into the area, keeping north and northeast winds in place throughout. Temperatures Saturday generally start in the mid-40s before warming to just the low 60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies, with clouds increasing as we get later in the day as another disturbance starts to draw closer. Increased cloud cover with the wedge hanging on tight will keep temperatures from getting too far above 60° in the afternoon on Sunday. We should get the daylight hours in rain-free, with showers on the increase as the aforementioned disturbance and associated surface low pass by overnight into early Monday.
The main weather concern will be the risk for coastal flooding early each morning this weekend thanks to the upcoming full moon and northeasterly winds, which are very favorable for piling up water in our neck of the woods. The water level forecast has increased for Charleston Harbor Saturday morning, and we now could look at 7.3-7.5′ with high tide around 6am, capable of closing some roads. Expect a repeat around Sunday morning’s 6:46am high tide as northeasterly winds persist, with water levels likely high enough to produce moderate coastal flooding (7.5-7.7′). Stay tuned for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
Showers re-enter the weather picture for the second half of the work week, though we’ll warm up a little in the process. Expect overcast on Wednesday before scattered showers commence in the afternoon. It doesn’t look like it’ll be a terribly heavy rain, but it could be enough to make the roads a little slick, so be careful when commuting. Temperatures start in the low 50s and rise to about the mid-60s in the afternoon as the cool wedge of high pressure hangs on for one more day.
The wedge starts to weaken Thursday, and despite overcast with periods of showers continuing, temperatures will run a little warmer. Expect mid-50s to start with low 70s in the afternoon. A few peeks of sun will be possible Friday, though scattered showers are expected to continue. Temperatures will run even warmer Friday, with lows around 60° and highs in the low-to-mid-70s.
Minor coastal flooding will continue to be possible with the morning high tides heading into the weekend. Water levels will generally peak around 7-7.1′ or so each day, which is enough to put some salt water on vulnerable roads in downtown Charleston. The highest tide capable of producing flooding on Wednesday is predicted around 8:47am, Thursday a little after 9:30am, and Friday around 10:30am. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
Remember rain? It will be back starting Saturday, along with quite the cooldown in the wake of a cold front that gets through late Friday night. We start Saturday in the mid-50s, but cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures from warming all that much — in other words, unless you’re closer to the coast, it’s pretty unlikely you’ll sniff out 60°. Rain continues heading overnight Saturday into Sunday as moisture lifting across the wedge along with a disturbance keeps rainfall in the forecast through at least Sunday morning. We should start to see precipitation taper off heading into Sunday afternoon, though we stay chilly with highs once again expected to stay suppressed to the upper 50s. (Naturally, sun starts to break through Monday, and temperatures begin to warm from there.)
We will need to watch Sunday morning’s high tide (6:50am) for the potential for some coastal flooding as the northeasterly winds help drive water level departures higher. Expect generally minor coastal flooding, though it may yet be high enough to close a few roads for a time. We could see similar flooding Monday morning as well. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
Another beautiful weekend lies ahead as dry high pressure remains in control at the surface. The warming trend that really started to show itself on Friday continues into the weekend. We start Saturday in the low 40s across much of the metro area, with upper 30s further inland and lows near 50° toward the coast. Temperatures will then head into the low 70s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Don’t forget to set your clocks requiring manual intervention an hour back before you head to bed Saturday night as Daylight Saving Time ends at 2am Sunday. We’ll see temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s as the sun comes up around 6:40 am, warming nicely into the mid-70s by afternoon. We’ll see a few more clouds as a trough swings through aloft, but the deep-layer dry air closer to the surface will keep us rain-free. The sun will set Sunday evening around 5:30, and it’ll be February 10 before we see another 6PM or later sunset. (Alas.)
Overall, though, it will be a great weekend to get back out and about. Remember how we couldn’t get a dry weekend to save our lives to start 2023? Seems like a distant memory with the great weekends we’ve had as of late — try to take advantage!
This will be an unseasonably warm final weekend of October across the Lowcountry as temperatures will bear more resemblance to mid-May. Expect highs in the mid-80s each afternoon with lows around 60° to start each day. Sunday’s forecast high of 85° would, if it came to pass, tie the record high for October 29 set in 1946. We’ll do this courtesy of stacked high pressure remaining in control for a few more days; dry air aloft will keep cloud cover at a minimum, and it’ll be a good weekend for sunshine overall.
No good weather deed goes unpunished, though: There will be a high risk of rip currents at the beaches in case you are wanting to wade into the water, and morning high tides will be high enough to cause some minor salt water flooding as well. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
A strong front coming by around Halloween will flip the script on temperatures. We’ll go from 83° on Monday to 77° on Tuesday before highs only top out around 60° on Wednesday and Thursday. It’s probably safe at this point to go ahead with a Sweater Weather Watch for next week!
After an occasionally stormy Friday, we have a great looking weekend of weather ahead. Skies clear out overnight Friday in the wake of the front, and by Saturday morning, we’re waking up to brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the low 50s. It’ll be a predominantly sunny day with temperatures topping out in the low-to-mid-70s.
Sunday turns a little warmer, but it’ll remain rather comfortable. Lows in the upper 50s give way to highs in the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon with a few clouds at times and a gentle northwesterly breeze. A reinforcing front makes a dry passage late Sunday evening, and this will cool temperatures back down for Monday. Peeking ahead into the forecastable future, there’s very little sign of much in the way of rain as we get into the home stretch of October. This isn’t too abnormal as October is climatologically a fairly dry month here in the Lowcountry, but we are almost an inch off pace still for the month.
