Today’s showers and tomorrow’s chill

/ January 29, 2019 at 6:39 AM
GOES-East infrared satellite depicting an Arctic front draped from the Gulf of Mexico north to the Great Lakes. Areas of blues in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are not clouds — those are just frigid temperatures!

We’ve got some rain headed our way this afternoon into early this evening, followed by another round of chilly temperatures. Temperatures look to bounce back to close out the work week, though.

Showers for the evening commute

Southeast regional radar mosaic, generated by AWIPS II around 5:45am Tuesday, January 29. (Likely not current by the time you read this.)

This morning, we find rain mixed with some snow moving through portions of TN, AL, and MS. This activity is along and ahead of an Arctic cold front, which will spread a reinforcing dose of winter well into the Southeast as today goes on.

Surface analysis of the continental United States valid at 4am Tuesday, January 29.
Source: NWS Weather Prediction Center

The wintry weather will not make it this far east, as temperatures will warm into the low 60s this afternoon ahead of the front and freezing temperatures lag the moisture by 6-8 hours or so. Overall, expect a fairly warm day after a start in the upper 30s to low 40s.

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) reflectivity, pressure, and wind output for Tuesday. Note the line of showers crossing the area from roughly 4-8 PM and the sharp wind shift to the west and northwest after the line passes through.

In general, showers look to arrive for the evening commute (roughly 4-8 PM based on NWS forecasts and recent high-resolution model output). Rainfall amounts will generally be on the light side, but any rain at the evening commute can cause issues, especially in isolated heavier downpours. Be ready to allow a little extra time to get home tonight.

Once the front and its attendant line of showers comes through, temperatures will quickly back off into the low 50s, falling to about freezing for Wednesday morning. Make sure pets and human loved ones have a warm spot to be tonight!

Brief chill with a warmup to close the work week

Forecast graphic. Wednesday: Partly cloudy, high 50, low 32. Thursday: Mostly Sunny, high 51, low 30. Friday: Partly Cloudy, high 61, low 35.
Three-day forecast for Wednesday, January 30 through Friday, February 1 from the National Weather Service in Charleston.

Once the front gets through, we will chill out well below normal for Wednesday and Thursday, though not quite the Arctic chill that our friends in the upper Midwest and Northeast will feel. (-22° in Chicago? HARD PASS.) By Friday, temperatures begin to rebound a bit as winds turn more onshore and the core of the cold airmass passes by.

Overall, the rest of the week looks fairly quiet from a weather perspective with a good mix of sun and clouds and no rainfall to speak of until possibly late Sunday. Signs are that our warming trend continues into early next week, too, so bundle up and hang in there!