While much of the nation will close October out with fairly cold temperatures, a sliver of warmth will hug the East Coast, keeping temperatures closer to late September/early October normals for the work week. Upper-level disturbances will keep the weather rather unsettled as well, with rain chances Tuesday-Friday before a cold front ushers fall back into the picture for the weekend.

Tidal flooding possible this week

With onshore flow expected to continue over the next several days along with already elevated astronomical tides, more episodes of salt water flooding are expected around times of high tide through at least Wednesday. We’ll want to watch any rainfall that might try to show up around these times of high tide as well for an increased flood threat.

Working on a top-five warmest October on record

Once again, October 2019 looks to be in the top-five for warmest Octobers on record at the North Charleston climate site (records going back to 1938). As of October 26, 2019 is tied with 2018 for fourth place with an average of 71.5°. If forecasts as they stand today verify, October 2019 will end up second-warmest with an average temperature of 72.0°.

1985 was the warmest October on record with an average temperature of 72.1°. Three of the five warmest Octobers on record have happened in the last 12 years; 2007 came in with an average temperature of 71.6° to take the third spot.

Tropical update

We’re closing in on the last month of hurricane season. There isn’t much out there to note, though Hurricane Pablo, which has achieved this strength despite a rather high latitude, is still spinning out there.

As the map shows, Pablo is not any of our concern.

Elsewhere, things are quiet. We have five names left on the list after Pablo, but as we get into November, the chances for additional storm formation begin to dwindle considerably.

As always, we’ll want to make sure any homegrown systems don’t become a heavy rain issue (as Nestor and Olga were for parts of the Southeast), but other than that, we’re almost there. Hurricane season ends on November 30.

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