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Ian’s impacts peak Friday; what to expect

/ September 30, 2022 at 12:13 AM

Ian’s impacts will be felt most on Friday as the center of the storm makes its closest approach to the Charleston metro area. Ian, once again a hurricane with 85 MPH maximum sustained winds, has seen several shifts in its forecast track throughout the day, moving the forecast landfall point from Beaufort this morning to Georgetown this evening. Charleston now sits on the western fringe of the error cone — a more southerly landfall cannot yet be ruled out — but it increasingly looks like we will spend time on the western side of the storm. This will reduce the tornado threat to nearly zero and should act to blunt the impacts of storm surge as well (but may not totally eliminate it, either). However, as Ian has started to take on a more hybrid structure — less of a tropical cyclone and more of a cold-core low — it is likely that the wettest and even windiest part of the storm may be the northwest side. So, while we might miss out on more of the severe storm surge impacts, the specter of more residence time with heavy rain certainly looms large.

Based on the 11PM advisory, here’s what you can expect for Friday:

Overall, cautious optimism is key. If the center should shift back a little more southwestward toward our location, we could see an increase in these impacts, particularly when it comes to surge.

Ian will wind down quickly after landfall, and by Saturday dry air will be punching in, shutting off a vast majority of the rain (a shower or two can’t be ruled out) and bringing the sun back out, with highs in the upper 70s expected.

Bottom line: Hunker down tomorrow and hang in there — it’ll be over before you know it.