Temperatures are the main weather story this week as the first legitimate sweater weather of the autumn arrives Tuesday in the wake of a strong cold front. Highs on Monday will be in the low 80s for the last time for the foreseeable future; once the front is by, we begin a stretch of well-below normal temperatures. Highs top out only in the 60s for Tuesday through Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day since early April, with lows bottoming out around 40° and highs only topping out in the low 60s despite full, unfettered sunshine. From there, temperatures will moderate, with highs returning to the 70s by Friday into the weekend.

So far, there is a risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening as the front moves by. A stronger storm or two can’t be completely counted out given good wind shear and decent thermodynamics, but some dry air should limit coverage. If stronger storms do form, gusty winds and maybe some hail are the main threats. After that, we look to remain rain-free for much of the rest of the week.

The forecast for the weekend is complicated by some signals that a coastal low could develop and move northward, bringing us some unsettled weather. There’s a lot of model disagreement on where the low forms, if it even forms at all. For now, the NWS forecast is for a reasonably warm, rain-free weekend, but keep an eye on updates as more guidance comes in throughout the week as revisions are possible.