Alas, Friday and the weekend will bring us back to reality a little bit after a couple fairly nice days for late August. Highs on Friday top back out in the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies as ridging holds on tight for at least one more day, suppressing afternoon thunderstorm chances (and, as such, any chance for relief). Heat indices look to peak around 102° or so — not quite advisory level, but not exactly pumpkin spice weather, either.

Saturday will be even hotter, as air temperatures head up into the upper 90s. Combine this with solidly mid-70s dewpoints and that’ll yield heat indices approaching the heat advisory threshold of 110°. As ridging aloft begins to weaken, the seabreeze may have a slightly easier time popping a storm or two, though coverage will continue to be primarily isolated in nature.

Storm chances tick up fairly decently for Sunday afternoon and evening as a front approaches the area and a trough sets in aloft. It’ll still be hot — expect mid-90s highs before storms kick in — and heat indices could still head north of the 105° danger zone (but should remain shy of advisory thresholds). This will usher in a more active period heading into next week, with rain chances becoming more likely as the aforementioned front stalls and hangs around for a few days.

Tropics: Franklin strengthens, and an area near the Gulf becomes worth watching

Updated at 7:45 PM with the 8PM outlook.

The tropics remain fairly busy with several areas to monitor, along with Tropical Storm Franklin. After stalling out again north of Hispaniola, Franklin is once again moving to the ENE as of the 5PM advisory. It’s expected to take more of a north to north-northwesterly track as we get into the weekend, strengthening into a hurricane in the process. It remains forecast to pass between Bermuda and the Southeast US coast early next week, enhancing swell across the area starting this weekend and increasing the risk for rip currents in the process.

There are two medium-risk areas in the Atlantic for tropical cyclone development in the next week, though those appear to be no threat to land. The third area on the map, which isn’t really organized into anything yet, is worth watching. It’s expected that a thunderstorm complex will emerge into the northwestern Caribbean; if/when this happens, it is possible that it may become a tropical cyclone as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico. But with that in mind, guidance is quite nebulous at this range, with model solutions ranging from nothing at all to a decent tropical cyclone approaching Florida by early next week. As of the 8PM outlook on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center is giving this area a 70% chance (in the high category) to develop in the next seven days. We’ll be keeping a close eye on this area to see if something tries to spin up — stay tuned for updates. For now, though, it’s nothing to worry about. If that changes, I’ll let you know.

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