The first full week of March will have a little of everything, from some frost and freeze to start followed by a round of springtime storms — a few of which could be severe — followed by another dip below normal. Monday starts with a Freeze Warning inland and a Frost Advisory closer to the coast as lows drop to around freezing across much of the area. We’ll warm back into the low 60s in the afternoon under generally partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies; this will still run a few degrees below normal for early March.

Temperatures rebound for Tuesday, though, as winds start to head a bit more southerly ahead of a storm system. As long as timing of the storm system remains reasonably on track, we should get Tuesday in rain-free. Expect lows in the mid-40s to warm to the low 70s in the afternoon with clouds steadily thickening in advance of the storm system.

Wednesday will be the most active weather day this week, with some much-needed rain coming through courtesy of a cold front, but also the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms as well. We’ll start the day near 60°, warming to the low 70s in the afternoon ahead of what should be a line of showers and thunderstorms driving toward the coast for the late morning/early afternoon hours. The atmosphere will be well-sheared, but as so often is the case, instability is the limiting factor here. The earlier the line gets through, the better as far as the severe threat goes; a later passage could allow things to destabilize a bit more. Regardless of whether storms can go severe, it’ll be a breezy day — expect gusts to 30 MPH at times.

The front gets through later Wednesday, and by Thursday temperatures will be back a bit below normal. Thursday looks like one more breezy day in the wake of the front, and despite fairly clear and sunny skies, highs will only get a click or two above 60° in the afternoon as the cooler air builds into the area. We run a touch warmer, but still a little below normal, on Friday before warming back up ahead of the next front on Saturday. A few showers will be possible later in the day, but the main rain chance with this storm system should arrive overnight Saturday into Sunday before tapering off Sunday afternoon.

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