Tuesday’s forecast will continue to feature warm temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms as Berkeley and Charleston head back to school. We have another warm start ahead of us — generally expect lows in the upper 70s once again, followed by highs in the low 90s in the afternoon. This should run a couple degrees cooler with a little more onshore flow, but it’ll still be toasty with heat indices peaking around 102° before showers and storms fire. Once again, heavy downpours could cause localized flooding, especially near swollen rivers and streams and in urban areas, so stay alert for possible Flood Advisories.

Well, there will be decidedly fewer tropical cyclones impacting the area during the upcoming week, though we will still be living with flooding from Debby for the next few days along the Edisto and Ashley rivers as they continue to fall slowly from record (or very near-record) levels. We at least have something to look forward to as we head into the first school week of the year: some drier air punching in for late week.

The first weekend after Debby will be a sweltering hot and occasionally unsettled affair as a front stalls out to our west and the seabreeze helps to kick off afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect to start Saturday in the upper 70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Lingering tropical moisture characterized by dewpoints in the upper 70s will drive heat indices into dangerous territory well into the low 110s. We could flirt with Excessive Heat Warning criteria if it wasn’t for the expectation that showers and thunderstorms would fire on the seabreeze by midafternoon. Unfortunately, we may see yet another round of heavy downpours for places being impacted by the ongoing flooding in the wake of Debby, and so it appears the Flood Watch will continue through at least 10am Saturday. Folks around Ridgeville, Moncks Corner, and Huger will need to continue to monitor for possible Flash Flood Warnings. We should see another round of showers and storms fire on Sunday with a similar setup in place to Saturday, too. Air temperatures may be slightly lower, but heat indices will still run close to 110°, so we will continue to swelter throughout the day Sunday. A front will squeak through next week, though, and that should allow for a little bit cooler and slightly drier air (72° dewpoints vs. 78° dewpoints, so don’t get too excited) to get into the area. So, it won’t last forever. Hang in there.

While Debby shuffles off to the northeast, our weather will remain unsettled as a trough persists aloft across the eastern half of the country. This will drive a surface front just close enough to stall out and keep elevated shower and thunderstorm chances in play each afternoon.

We returned to the 90s on Thursday and will head back there each afternoon for the foreseeable future. Lingering tropical moisture in the wake of Debby will help drive heat indices well into the 100s, perhaps flirting with advisory criteria despite low 90s air temperatures. Then, we should see showers and thunderstorms fire up each afternoon generally along and ahead of the seabreeze. Storm motions will generally be eastward, so some rain could spread to the coast.

All Tropical Storm Warnings were dropped this morning as Debby, which made landfall around Bulls Bay at 2am, continues to lift north away from the area. The risk for flooding continues, especially near rivers, creeks, and streams. An Areal Flood Warning remains in effect across the entire Tri-County area through at least 2:45pm. Additional rain should develop courtesy of some wraparound moisture from Debby as we get into the heat of the day, which could inhibit recovery from flooding, so the warning continues. The Flood Watch continues until Friday morning as well.

Temperatures today will run in the upper 80s, closer to normal after a record cool high temperature of 80° on Wednesday. We’ve seen some peeks of sun and blue sky this morning and should hopefully see a bit more of that just for our spirits’ sake. The sun will make a more complete comeback for Friday and the weekend.

Tropical Storm Debby will make landfall on the South Carolina coast somewhere around Bulls Bay up to Georgetown (taking the cone literally, the margin for error is between Mt. Pleasant and Myrtle Beach) overnight as it turns northward in response to high pressure building back in from the east. This landfall likely won’t really come with much fanfare as Debby’s inner core was hollowed out by land interaction and dry air over the past day or so. The strongest winds, in fact, are well away from the center of the storm. Still, there’s a risk for tropical storm-force winds at the coast and within gusts in rain bands, so the Tropical Storm Warning continues. With such saturated soils, it won’t take too much in the way of wind to bring trees down, so we’ll want to stay a little vigilant about possible power outages.

Showers with occasional downpours and some gusty winds to around 35 MPH have been commonplace throughout Wednesday and that should continue into the overnight through Thursday. Another inch-plus of rain should fall overnight through Thursday morning in the metro proper, with upwards of 2″ possible further inland (generally north and west of 17-A) where a fairly persistent rain band has been parked for a fair bit of the day.

We should see generally improving conditions on Thursday. Some spots may get another half-inch of rain or so as Debby begins to depart the area, and it’ll still be a little breezy, but overall, Debby’s effects will be winding down. Expect temperatures on Thursday to run a little warmer than they have in previous days, heading into the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon as the cloud shield begins to thin out.

Tropical Storm Debby will continue to figure prominently in the forecast as we head through the middle of the week with continued periods of heavy rain and gusty winds before a more standard summertime pattern once again starts to take hold Friday.

Debby made landfall this morning along the Big Bend of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. It’s since fallen back to being a tropical storm with max winds now at 50 MPH, but its forward speed has been slowing as steering currents collapse around it. This is setting the stage for the well-advertised prolonged deluge and flash flood threat that will unfold particularly over the next couple days.

The weather story this week is Tropical Storm Debby. Some rain associated with the system has already tried to push ashore Sunday evening, and there’s a lot more where that comes from as we get into the first few days of the new work week. The forecast continues to call for Debby to stall out and meander over Georgia, causing excessive rainfall that could lead to widespread significant flooding across the Lowcountry over the next several days. We will also deal with the potential for tropical storm-force winds, storm surge, and tornadoes as well. The slow-moving nature of the storm increases the uncertainty about exact numbers for impacts as well as on timing, but we’ll do our best here within the limits of the science.

Tropical Storm Debby, newly christened as of 5PM, will march up the Florida coast on Sunday, strengthening as it goes over 90°+ degree water in the Gulf of Mexico. Here at home, moisture will begin to increase ahead of the storm, and that should lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Expect balmy lows in the upper 70s to yield to highs in the upper 80s in the afternoon as the flow begins to turn more onshore and showers and thunderstorms become more numerous. A strong storm or two can’t be ruled out, as is normally the case this time of year.