Well, friends, here we are again: It’s the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. For the first time since 2014, we begin June with the full slate of names as there were no named May storms. (We’ll see what NHC ultimately does with low pressure that came ashore around Pensacola about a week ago in its postseason analysis, though. It looked awfully tropical.)

Stop me if you thought today was Monday — yes, it is indeed Tuesday — which means we’re already getting into the midpoint of the work week. And as we begin June and meteorological summer, the weather will certainly cooperate with summer-like conditions. Expect warmer-than-normal temperatures to dominate into Friday, with highs in the low 90s expected each afternoon. Factor in humidity, and it’ll feel closer to the mid-90s, especially right after the seabreeze comes through.

We’ll see a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms each day as the aforementioned seabreeze moves inland, but the vast majority of us should stay rain free through Friday as these storms will be extremely hit-or-miss. We’ll start to see a little uptick in shower activity on Friday as a front approaches the area, but the better rain chances (for now) will be found Saturday morning as the front gets through.

We’ll also be keeping an eye on the tropics, where an area of disturbed weather (the former Hurricane Agatha in the eastern Pacific) could form into a tropical depression as it approaches western Florida later this week. It’s far too soon to know what this means in our neck of the woods, but this looks to be a decent rainstorm for at least some parts of Florida. Depending on the track, we could see some marine impacts and maybe even some tidal flooding over the weekend. The first name on the list for the 2022 season is Alex. I don’t think this is going to be a major issue for us (if it even becomes much of one at all), but will watch it all the same. Just about that time of year, after all.

We’re headed back to the 90s as we head back to work and, for the last week this year, school. We’ll see a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze on Tuesday, with chances starting near the coast around noon-ish, then migrating inland for the rest of the afternoon. Not everyone sees storms. Expect highs to top out in the upper 80s.

As drier air filters in aloft, we’ll have less cloud cover, less of a shot at afternoon thunderstorms, and thus better opportunities to reach the low 90s each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday. A front will get closer to the area on Friday; compressional heating ahead of the front should send us back to the 90s in the afternoon but with a greater risk of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Peeking toward the weekend, it appears the front is going to stall out and hang around. This, combined with an infusion of tropical moisture from the south, could keep the weekend somewhat unsettled. With the front by and high pressure wedging southward, though, we should run a few degrees cooler than we have been as of late (mid-80s as opposed to low 90s). We’ll keep a close eye on this as time goes on for fine-tuning.

In any event — stay cool and keep on watering for at least the next few days as moderate drought continues across the Lowcountry.

Memorial Day across the Lowcountry, while not nearly as springlike as last year’s, will feel appropriate as the unofficial start of summer. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the locally warmer coastline, heading into the upper 80s to near 90° away from the beaches by afternoon before the seabreeze rolls through. Temperatures at the beaches will top out in the low to mid-80s, making for a really good day to get some sun. (Just mind the high UV index and apply sunscreen liberally!)

There’s a tiny chance we could see a shower or storm in the morning as a little energy ripples on by, but that risk is rather low. The better — albeit still slight, all things considered — chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm comes in the afternoon as we reach peak heating along and ahead of the seabreeze. Winds are onshore throughout a good bit of the atmosphere as surface high pressure remains offshore and a 585-588 decameter ridge remains centered over eastern North Carolina, so this should allow for the seabreeze to make good movement inland throughout the afternoon, limiting the risk for any thunderstorms near the beaches especially after 2PM. With limited to no wind shear to work with, thunderstorms will be pulse in nature and thus pop and subsequently collapse. All this to say, though, that the risk of any one location seeing storms is quite low — just be sure to have an indoor backup plan in case it’s needed briefly. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!

Temperatures will fall into the mid-70s in the evening, and any showers should be long gone by the time Nduduzo Makhathini takes the Cistern stage at Spoleto tomorrow night.

Finally, don’t forget to take a pause tomorrow to honor those we’ve lost in combat and their families. That’s why a lot of us are off, after all.

Memorial Day weekend in the Lowcountry looks quite seasonable — highs in the upper 80s, lows in the upper 60s, and partly cloudy skies for Saturday and Sunday as a front stalls offshore, but far enough offshore to keep us in some nicer weather. Indeed, we should stay mostly rain-free for the long weekend, though there will be a chance for a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms Monday as a little more moisture begins to work back into the area. All in all, though, things are looking pretty good to get outside.

We have a decent-looking weekend ahead, but first we need to get through Friday, which looks to be on the stormy side for a good bit of the day.

Thursday looks to be another warm and somewhat muggy day as onshore flow keeps humidity up a notch or two. Temperatures will top out a little warmer than they did today, ending up around on the higher end of the mid-80s away from the coastline; factor in the humidity and we’ll see heat indices running in the low 90s. We look to stay rain-free, though, as drier air aloft stays in place for one more day.

The forecast turns a touch quieter for a couple days as a front sags south across the area, capping the atmosphere off a bit and limiting shower and thunderstorm development. Expect partly cloudy skies for Wednesday and Thursday with highs topping out generally in the mid-80s. While you can never totally discount a shower or storm this time of year, strong capping on the atmosphere should prevent much in the way of storms.

Rain chances return on Friday as a surface cold front, aided by a trough of low pressure aloft, approach the area. We’ll see plenty of moisture streaming into the area thanks to the upper-air configuration, which should aid numerous showers and thunderstorms heading into Friday afternoon and evening. (Not exactly great timing for the Spoleto opener.) The atmosphere will be pretty juiced, too, allowing for heavy rainfall to be an issue in some spots. We’ll want to keep an eye out for flooding as a result. We do need the rain, but perhaps not all at once! With the rain and cloud cover in the area, expect high temperatures in the mid-80s after starting in the low to mid-70s.

We remain warm and muggy on Tuesday as we remain on the warm side of a stalled frontal boundary to our north. Storm coverage should be a little lower for the afternoon, generally driven by daytime heating and the seabreeze, but a few spots may still yet get some heavy rain and even some gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though. Highs in the afternoon top out in the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s.

Later in the evening, the aforementioned frontal boundary should get a bit of a move-on as low pressure heads eastward across North Carolina. Some of the convection-allowing models push the front into the area as early as 9-10 PM, accompanied by showers and maybe some thunderstorms. We’ll see how this ultimately pans out. Regardless, we should see the front — and some slightly drier air — at least temporarily poke into the area for Wednesday, stalling out over or just south of the Tri-County. Wait and see, but for now, we’ll continue to take the shots for beneficial rainfall, as long as the extra-curricular activity remains to a minimum.

It rained today — really, really well, in fact — and that felt nothing short of miraculous. Quite a few gauges in the metro area recorded over 1” of rain from this morning’s thunderstorms. We’ll have additional shots at beneficial rainfall this week, especially at the beginning and the end, while temperatures generally remain around normal.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the day Monday as slugs of tropical moisture from a disturbance in the Gulf — the first to gain the Hurricane Center’s attention this year, though development is unlikely — traverse the area and interact with a stalling cold front to our north. This should bring some more substantial rains to at least some of us by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will hold in the mid-80s given cloud cover and expected thunderstorm activity.

The stalled front hangs around Tuesday, though the Gulf disturbance will be departing the weather picture. There will still be plenty of moisture around, though, and that combined with the lingering front should help kick off additional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Expect more of the same going into Wednesday, too, though showers and thunderstorms should be a little more isolated. Rain chances head back up for Thursday and Friday as a cold front pushes toward the area from the west. There’s still going to be plenty of moisture around, and some heavy rainfall will be possible from any storms that develop.

The cold front clears the area and stalls out offshore as we kick off the Memorial Day weekend. Rain chances could still hang around given the proximity of the front, but they’d be relatively slight. It should feel a touch less humid, too, which would be welcome news as Spoleto opens. Keep an eye on forecast updates as this will become more clear as the week goes on.