So the disclaimer at the outset with this weekend’s forecast, especially for Sunday, is that a lot hinges on the eventual path, forward speed, and strength of what is, as of this writing, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. You’ll want to keep closer tabs on forecast updates than you normally might as things are a little more fluid than normal due to the uncertainty.

With that in mind, though, one thing that’s certain is that Saturday is going to be a hot and muggy day with ample storms in the afternoon. Temperatures don’t look to get below 80° across more of the metro area than we might like, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 70s will yield heat indices that peak around advisory criteria (108°) before showers and storms develop and cool things down.

Sunday will start on the mild side once again, but showers and thunderstorms should — provided the current NHC track for Four holds — become fairly widespread across the area by Sunday afternoon as the surge of tropical moisture and a little daytime heating combine for some rather heavy downpours. The upside will be that highs will be suppressed to the mid-80s, but I’d expect it to be soggy enough to where we wouldn’t get to enjoy that all that much. An inch or two of rain will be possible Sunday, especially near the coast.

The weather stays hot and turns increasingly unsettled as we get into Friday and the weekend. Warmth peaks Friday; expect highs in the mid-90s to combine with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to yield heat indices approaching 110°. Another Heat Advisory, while having not yet been issued at publish time, certainly seems like a decent possibility for Friday, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should provide some relief to a few of us, though slow-moving storms are certainly a possibility and could lead to some localized flooding. Strong wind gusts remain a concern as well.

Shower and storm chances increase heading into Saturday and especially on Sunday as a weakening front approaches the area and stalls out. Temperatures will start to trend downward a bit thanks to the increase in storm coverage and cloud cover, though Saturday continues to look quite toasty with peak heat indices around 105°. Storms should fire by mid-afternoon and could be somewhat numerous Saturday. Greater coverage is expected on Sunday as the front stalls nearby and moisture continues to increase. That’ll keep highs in the low 90s at most in the afternoon. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, slow-moving storms could produce localized flooding. Be ready to halt outdoor activities if a storm approaches.

Heat will be the main weather story on Thursday as air temperatures reach into the mid-90s and dewpoints peak in the mid-70s, combining for heat indices that could approach 110-115° in the afternoon. This has prompted an Excessive Heat Watch from noon-8PM, when heat indices could be highest. If the forecast indicates heat indices approaching or exceeding 113°, this could be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning; otherwise, a Heat Advisory would likely be the move barring an unexpected cooler start (like we saw today, in fact!)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours as the seabreeze pushes inland. We could also see storms coming our way from the Midlands once again as well. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but you can never rule out a damaging wind gust or two this time of year.

High pressure building in aloft will turn on the heat and keep storms at bay for the rest of the work week. After reaching 93° on Tuesday, we should reach well into the mid-90s for the next few days. Dewpoints surging back into the mid-to-upper 70s will drive heat indices back into Advisory territory possibly as early as Wednesday and more likely on Thursday and Friday. Be ready to take heat precautions once again as you head outside at the height of the afternoons.

Looking for relief from storms? Don’t count on it — the high pressure aloft will generally put a lid on much in the way of thunderstorm activity. If one can get going, then you might get some heavy rain and gusty winds, but otherwise, widespread storm activity doesn’t appear likely until next week.

Well, the respite is decidedly over: we’re back to 100°+ heat indices on Tuesday as surface high pressure shifts offshore and higher-dewpoint air returns to the area. We start the day in the low 70s one more time, but will warm quickly into the 80s by mid-morning and should be back in the 90s by early afternoon. Dewpoints look to climb into the mid-70s throughout the day, and this will yield heat indices around 103° — hot to be sure, but shy of advisory criteria. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are primarily expected in the afternoon and evening hours, though a few showers can’t be ruled out in the morning. A few showers may try to get going on the seabreeze, but high-resolution guidance suggests that the bulk of any activity will get going perhaps in the Midlands and Upstate before dropping southeasterly into the metro. Some heavy rain is possible, and a damaging wind gust or two is not out of the question, either. Keep an ear out for possible warnings Tuesday evening, just in case.

After a really nice Sunday that featured dewpoints dropping into the low 60s and no rain to speak of, we get one more day of lower humidity before we return to the swamp for the rest of the upcoming week. For Monday, though, enjoy lows around 70° yielding to highs around 90° in the afternoon with dewpoints generally in the mid-60s. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day, but rain should just hold off to our west for one more day. (Can’t rule out some showers near I-95, though.)

After several days of periodic, road-flooding deluges, a break is in store for the weekend as a front pushes south of the area. While we could see a few lingering storms on Saturday, we should see a little more in the way of sunshine through broken cloud cover as well. After a mid-70s start, temperatures will head to about 90° in the afternoon. Heat indices will not be quite the factor that they have been thus far in July, either: it’ll feel around 95° or so. Certainly not cool by any objective measure, but it’s not 105°, either.

Drier air pushes into the area on Sunday, and despite highs in the low 90s once again, it’s just going to feel a lot better as dewpoints mix out to the mid-60s in the afternoon. (We’ve been dealing with mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints for the better part of several weeks now, so this will be nice!) The drier air will help promote generally sunny skies with little to no chance of any rain in the afternoon. It’ll be one of the better outdoors days in recent memory, and dewpoints in the mid-60s essentially remove the heat index from the equation.

Enjoy this, because as we depart July and head into August next week, we’re back into a pretty standard summertime pattern with warm temperatures, mid-70s dewpoints, and afternoon storms.

Another round of heavy rain appears to be in the cards for Friday as a front continues to move southward into the very muggy and moist airmass that continues to linger over our neck of the woods. Temperatures start in the mid-70s once again, only warming to the upper 80s thanks to cloud cover and storms which should get going by mid-morning as the seabreeze develops. As of this writing, there is no new Flood Watch, but one could be issued by the time some of you read this in the morning. It won’t rain all day in any one location — this rarely happens in the summer — but where it rains, a lot could fall atop increasingly saturated ground. Stay tuned for possible Flood Advisories during the day Friday.

One more round of storms appears likely on Saturday as the front moves by, with more heavy rain potentially in the cards. Once again, temperatures will be suppressed a bit by the clouds and rain, with highs peaking in the upper 80s. Sunday is emerging as the pick day of the weekend, as the front will be south of here with a little bit of drier air building in featuring mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints, which is quite a contrast from the mid-70s dewpoints that typically characterize summer around here. Cloud cover should be minimal, though a stray afternoon storm can’t be totally ruled out. With the sun back out, expect highs to peak in the low 90s, but the drier air means lows will get to fall a bit, with low 70s expected away from the coast.

More active weather is expected Thursday as a stalled front combines with a favorable upper-air configuration and plenty of available moisture for numerous showers and thunderstorms. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, be ready for downpours to affect your day. We could see showers and storms fire overnight near the coast, in fact, and those could impact the morning commute, while guidance continues to paint solid afternoon thunderstorm chances as well.

This at least helps drives temperatures down a touch: while the low of 77° is still quite balmy, highs top out in the low 90s at best with heat indices running lower than they have on previous days. (A meteorological Pyrrhic victory, perhaps, but so it goes in late July.)

Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances will be in play each starting Wednesday as disturbances within southwest flow aloft add some lift to the generally favorable thermodynamics. Temperatures on Wednesday start in the upper 70s, warming to the low-to-mid-90s by afternoon. As far as storms, some coastal storms, perhaps with waterspouts, will again be possible with the morning land breeze. Then, once the seabreeze becomes established, we should see more in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity inland.

Rain chances tick up even further Thursday and peak Friday as a front sags south nearby. This will help keep highs capped to around if not slightly below normal, especially Friday. Both days, expect decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rain and a strong storm or two can’t be totally ruled out. Friday looks particularly active with the threat for isolated flooding possible. To this end, The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Fingers crossed for no commute problems, but it’s something to watch.