We get a brief reprieve from the heat on Tuesday as the front that brought today’s deluge nudges just south enough for a little bit of cooler and drier air to work in, especially further inland. Mostly cloudy skies will be the rule as onshore flow persists throughout the day. We start the day in the low 70s, but dewpoints sneaking briefly back into the upper 60s could feel a little bit better than we’ve felt. Those dewpoints will start to creep back up, but the cloud cover and onshore flow keeps highs capped to the mid-80s. A stray storm can’t be totally ruled out near the coast; in fact some model data suggests a few downpours will be possible before sunrise. Wait and see on that, but most of us should get Tuesday in rain-free.

We will get the first week of July off to a very soggy start as a front stalls in the area, bringing a risk for numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday evening (more on that shortly). While rain chances back off a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday as the front meanders and weakens, we will get at least a brief break from the advisory-level heat that punctuated the end of June. Rain will keep highs to the upper 80s on Monday, while onshore flow Tuesday helps to keep highs tamped down to the mid-80s. Warming begins again Wednesday, though, with upper 80s yielding to mid-90s on the Fourth of July. We’re in the upper 90s for Friday and the weekend with standard afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances expected.

It was a nice couple days of heat indices “only” in the upper 90s to low 100s, but we return to Advisory-level heat on Sunday as air temperatures in the mid-90s combine with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to yield heat indices 108-110°. Once again, you’ll want to be sure your outdoor activities involve frequent breaks in the shade with plenty of water.

Those outdoor activities may become disrupted as we get into the afternoon and evening hours as thunderstorms begin to fire along and ahead of the seabreeze. Coverage should increase as the evening goes on as a disturbance aloft swings by. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible with some periods of locally heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning. A few stronger storms could produce sporadic damaging wind gusts, so be alert for possible severe weather warnings as well. Regardless of the severity of the storms, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. If you can hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck by lightning, so move those outdoor activities inside if a thunderstorm approaches your location. Most of the activity should disperse as we get later into Sunday night, though some could hang around with the energy aloft and an approaching front.

We’ll want to keep an eye on Monday for the potential for some flooding as slow-moving showers and storms should fire on that aforementioned front as it stalls out across the area. I’ll have more on that risk tomorrow as more data rolls in.

The weekend’s forecast will feature continued summer heat and humidity with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

We’ll start Saturday in the mid-to-upper 70s away from the coast, warming to the low to mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will be on the rebound after a slightly drier Friday, but heat indices should stay below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108° for one more day. That being said, it’ll still be plenty hot: it’ll feel like 103-105° at the height of the afternoon. The seabreeze will be the focal point for scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon, with additional storms firing off outflow boundaries. Some of us may see a storm to cool us off, but others will not. High-resolution guidance is pointing at areas along and west of 17-A for the best chance for storms.

More widespread storms are possible Sunday ahead of another “cold” front that’ll be moving in from the north. Ahead of this front and before storms kick off, air temperatures could head into the mid-90s. This, combined with an increasingly humid airmass, could send heat indices toward the upper 100s and, after a couple days off, another Heat Advisory. Many of us should see relief, though, as showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon through the evening via the seabreeze, outflow boundaries, and the approaching front. A couple storms could be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts the main concern as well, so be aware of that possibility.

After some much-needed rainfall Thursday, we’ve got a few more shots at additional rain as we close out the month. In fact, the thunderstorm activity Thursday night will likely help keep temperatures and dewpoints down a little heading into Friday, with heat indices “only” in the low-to-mid-100s for many of us before thunderstorms fire in the afternoon. The early return from the late Thursday evening model runs suggests less storm coverage Friday than we saw Thursday, but some of us will still see another round of needed rain.

The active summertime pattern stays in place for Saturday into Sunday as well, with air temperatures in the low 90s combining with increasing dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to prompt Heat Advisory-level conditions once again each afternoon before thunderstorms fire. Scattered coverage continues to be expected, with some of us getting luckier than others as far as rainfall goes. Some of the rain could be quite heavy at times, though, with minor flooding a possibility if it sets up in the more vulnerable locations. And as always, you can’t rule out a stronger or even marginally severe thunderstorm in the summertime; while there isn’t much to hang your hat on as far as organized storms, boundary and cell collisions can help bring down some strong wind gusts.

The meteorological status quo continues on Thursday: Heat, humidity, and a few storms in the afternoon. Temperatures will be fairly heinous on Thursday, with lows barely dipping below 80° away from the warmer coastline and highs getting into the mid-to-upper 90s in the afternoon. Mix in dewpoints in the mid-70s, and that’ll yield another day of dangerous heat indices in the 107-110° range. I’d be ready for yet another Heat Advisory to be issued for tomorrow.

A front sinking southward into the area combined with the usual seabreeze influence will help improve shower and thunderstorm chances for more of us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible, and some gusty winds will be possible in any thunderstorm as well. A stray Severe Thunderstorm Warning certainly is in the cards, but widespread severe weather isn’t expected.

Heat and humidity continue for the rest of the week, with advisory-level heat indices remaining a distinct possibility, broken up only by isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.

We’re back into the mid-90s Wednesday after a mid-70s start. Heat indices in the mid-100s will be common, with higher values possible closer to the coast where dewpoints will run a little higher. Don’t be surprised if another Heat Advisory comes out for Wednesday. A few of you could get lucky and get a thunderstorm to help cool things off, though the winds could be a bit strong at times in these. However, as is common with the summertime weather regime around here, widespread severe weather is not expected.

We’ll keep this going Thursday into Friday. Air temperatures peak on Thursday, topping out in the mid-to-upper 90s as winds go a little more westerly through about 5,000 feet. Once again, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon as convective temperatures are reached and the seabreeze makes a slow push inland. Expect similar conditions Friday, with highs once again topping out in the mid-90s after an upper 70s start, with just a few showers and thunderstorms perhaps imparting relief.

Another hot summer day lies ahead for Tuesday, with just a few of us possibly seeing some relief from thunderstorms in the afternoon. We start the day in the mid-70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will make it feel closer to 103° at times, with even warmer heat indices possible in the wake of the seabreeze.

As mentioned, a few thunderstorms will be possible with a stalled front in the area, but not everyone will see a storm. A stronger storm or two can never be ruled out this time of year, but there is not a widespread risk for severe weather.

Charleston summer is in full swing as we get into the last week of June as hot and muggy conditions will be prevalent for the foreseeable future.

Monday will be particularly warm with westerly winds ahead of a front that’ll be sagging southward throughout the day. This front along with the pinned seabreeze should help ignite some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but not everyone’s going to get heat relief. We start the day in the mid-to-upper 70s, warming to the upper 90s in the afternoon with heat indices around and even a little above 105° expected. (Note: 105° used to be heat advisory criteria, but that has changed this year — 108° heat index or higher for two hours is the new heat advisory criteria.)

The front hangs around Tuesday before retreating northward Wednesday. This should generally lead to standard afternoon thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze each day. Highs continue in the mid-90s after mid-70s starts both days, with heat indices once again potentially approaching 105°. Rain chances tick up Thursday and Friday as a disturbance moves across the area, while ridging builds aloft for the weekend and starts to reduce afternoon storm chances. Highs continue in the low to mid-90s each afternoon after mid-70s starts, with heat indices flirting with the Heat Advisory criteria especially later in the work week. Be sure you’re taking frequent breaks and hydrating if you’re working outdoors in this swampy weather!

The tropical low — but not depression — that’s been driving Friday’s periods of rain will be ashore in far southern Georgia by Saturday morning. It’ll start to turn more northward throughout the day, and that’ll help instigate showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Outside of storms, expect a warm and muggy day with highs topping out around 90°.

We’ll keep the risk for showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday as well, with the best chances once again in the afternoon (though a few showers or storms could be around all day). We stay muggy, with lows in the mid-70s yielding to low 90s in the afternoon that’ll feel more like the upper 90s.