Friday gives us one more day of warm and mostly rain-free weather before the pattern turns back toward being more unsettled. Like today and the past few days, expect highs to top out a little over 90° in the afternoon, with heat indices in the low 100s. As always, a stray shower or thunderstorm can never be ruled out because, well, summer.

Our quieter weather pattern begins to shift back toward a more unsettled setup as the weekend wears on. Expect scattered thunderstorm coverage on Saturday, with highs topping out around 90° outside of those storms.

A front will sag southward into the area as we get into Sunday, stalling out over the Carolinas as Fred — forecast as a tropical storm — approaches the Florida panhandle (based on the current NHC forecast). The influx of tropical moisture with the nearby frontal boundary could spell some heavy rainfall at times across the area starting Sunday and into early next week. Stay tuned to forecast updates as the rain threat evolves.

Thursday looks to be much the same as the previous few days: Temperatures in the low 90s, heat indices in the low 100s, and mostly rain-free conditions (with the disclaimer that a stray storm can never be ruled out this time of year — ask Goose Creek and Summerville all about that today). High pressure continues its firm grip on our weather both at the surface and aloft, and this looks to continue for a few more days before a front and enhanced tropical moisture moving into the area ahead of Tropical Storm Fred begin to increase rain chances to start next week.

While we can never totally rule out a popup shower or storm in mid-August, high pressure both at the surface and aloft should put the kibosh on precipitation as we get over the hump and finish out the work week. The forecast is pretty standard each day — highs in the low 90s, lows in the mid-70s (running closer to 80° near the coast, including in Downtown Charleston).

We certainly can use the drying time; so far we’ve had 18.04″ of rain this summer, a surplus of just over 3″ (3.01″, to be exact). That’s good for 24th on record to this point. The summer of 1973 continues to reign supreme in the rainfall department, though, with 35.33″ recorded at the airport from June 1 to August 10. (It could always be worse.)

As we get closer to the weekend, we’ll see rain chances begin to head back up as deeper tropical moisture looks to work back into the area.

Tuesday promises another day of isolated showers and storms along and ahead of the seabreeze as highs top out right around 90°. Humidity will make it feel a little closer to 99-100° as the seabreeze moves past during the afternoon. Otherwise, there’s not too much to write home about as ridging of high pressure aloft and at the surface persists.

Mercifully, we are headed into a period of relatively normal weather for the next few days. Atlantic high pressure will build in at the surface, and subtropical ridging will move in aloft to click the pattern back into a more standard summertime configuration. Temperatures will top out in the low 90s each afternoon (though the humidity will make it feel closer to 100°), and the inland-advancing seabreeze will be the main focus for any shower or thunderstorm development. Not everyone will see rain every day, and it won’t rain all day at any one location. Just mind the afternoon heat and enjoy the relief if and when you get it.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to feature prominently in the forecast as we get into Saturday, with perhaps another round of morning storms to greet us as a mid-level trough and some embedded energy draws closer to the area. With the warm front north of us, peeks of sun should allow temperatures to continue to moderate into the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon.

By Sunday, the troublesome trough lifts out of the area and we get back into more of a traditional summertime regime. Scattered storms will continue, though they should be a little less numerous Sunday. Highs return to the 90s across the area and look to stay that way as we get into the new work week. But it’s the weekend, and there’s no reason to think about the new work week right now. 🙂

After two straight days of 70s — the earliest that’s happened in August on record — a warm front will lift across the area late tonight into Friday morning. Said warm front will scour out the cool season-esque wedge of high pressure that’s been in place for the last couple days and bring warm temperatures and humidity back to the Lowcountry. This, too, combined with good mid-level forcing from a trough approaching from the west, will keep plentiful showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Saturday.

With the wedge scoured out, we shouldn’t have quite as much overcast as we’ve seen the past few days. The change in airmass and ensuing periods of sunshine between storms will allow high temperatures to rise through the upper 80s each day through Sunday. Mix humidity in, and it’ll feel closer to the mid-90s on Friday, and will feel closer to 100° Saturday and Sunday afternoons. (At least it’s not 115° like this time last week!)

The trough that’s responsible for Friday and Saturday’s shenanigans will shift eastward as Sunday goes on, giving way to weather that’s more characteristic of early August to start the next work week. The fall preview was nice, though, and it’s a nice reminder that we’re coming through the peak of summer now, with the cool season not too terribly far off.

We woke up to some fairly rude shower activity generally along and east of 17-A this morning as the front repositioned a little further north. Lift across the boundary within an enhanced corridor of moisture is keeping us in cloud cover and showers this morning. We could see another round of showers in the next couple hours lift out of Savannah into the metro area. Guidance continues to indicate a dry slot for at least a few hours late this morning into early afternoon, but then begins to advertise scattered showers (and maybe a thunderstorm near the coast) returning to the picture later this afternoon.

We could still see some peeks of sun throughout the day, but the best chances of that are going to be further inland, generally west of 17-A to the I-95 corridor. Closer to the coast, we’ll remain within a plume of higher precipitable water values and somewhat better forcing in proximity to the front, which will certainly make it tougher to get some sunshine through. Depending on the strength and timing of the high pressure wedge lifting out, this could make for another significantly cooler-than-normal day for much of the Charleston metro area.

By tonight, rain chances will spread further inland as the front begins to lift back to the north in response to a trough, currently found over the Midwest into the southern Plains, pushing eastward. This will increase rain chances markedly for tonight into Friday.

After a record cool day — Wednesday’s high of 77° breaks the record low maximum temperature of 80° set in 1969 — we’ll warm up by a few degrees for Thursday as more sunshine mixes in. Still, though, with high pressure wedging in from the north, we’ll stay cooler than normal once again.

The high pressure wedge will retreat a bit as Thursday goes on. This will allow for the seabreeze to help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, but we will still not have a ton of moisture to work with behind the front. Rain chances will steadily increase overnight Thursday into Friday as the front moves back north of us, increasing available moisture and instability.

There’s a reason we tell y’all to stay tuned to forecast updates, and that’s because sometimes things change. In this case, it’s changing for the better thanks to a front that pushed a little further south and a trough moving a click or two more eastward.