Tuesday begins an occasionally unsettled period of weather that’ll last through early Black Friday as a series of fronts moves through the area. The first one, poised to move through Tuesday evening, won’t be terribly strong; it’ll kick up some cloud cover and maybe a few showers as well out ahead of it, but it won’t really affect the airmass all that much. We’ll start Tuesday in the low 50s, warming to the low to mid-70s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will surge back into the 60s for a brief period, but those will begin to fall by evening as the front moves by.

The week ahead will look a bit like last week: starting warm, a mid-week front, and a chilly round of weather for Friday and the weekend (that, in fact, will run even cooler than we did these past few days).

First, though, we’re back in the 70s on Monday as high pressure at the surface starts to move offshore. This makes for a seasonably warm day, starting in the mid-40s and warming to the low 70s in the afternoon. We turn warmer on Tuesday ahead of what should be a dry, fairly weak front, with a start in the mid-50s yielding to highs in the mid-70s in the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. The front only acts to knock temperatures down a couple degrees, so Wednesday remains warmer than normal with lows in the low 50s yielding to highs in the low 70s in the afternoon.

Thanksgiving Day will be mostly dry, though a stronger front approaching from the west will bring rain chances into the area in the evening through the overnight. It’ll be a warm day, with lows in the mid-to-upper 50s warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon ahead of the rain. Once this front gets through, though, we’ll feel a noticeable change as another shot of cool air moves in. Black Friday’s highs should only peak in the low 60s — some 15° cooler than Thanksgiving — as rain and clouds depart. We’ll stay quite cool heading into the weekend, with perhaps some frost concerns each night as lows on Saturday and Sunday bottom out in the mid-30s, while highs only peak around the mid-50s each day.

We have a chilly few days ahead as we close out the last work week before Thanksgiving. Friday will start in the upper 30s to around 40°, but factor in the wind, which will still be a bit breezy throughout the day, and it’ll feel closer to freezing as we head to work and school. Temperatures will then struggle to warm to the mid-50s in the afternoon despite full sunshine — a very wintry-feeling day, not so much like what a typical November day looks like.

Winds remain a touch elevated heading into Saturday, which will feature the coldest morning of the set. Expect temperatures to fall into the mid-30s in the metro thanks to continued cool advection and mostly clear skies; with the winds mixing in, it’ll feel more like the upper 20s at times. We’ll see a bit more of a rebound in highs, though, as the core of the coldest air lifts out of the area. Expect highs on Saturday to peak in the low 60s as the airmass begins to moderate. Another chilly start awaits on Sunday, with lows once again dipping into the upper 30s, but we’ll warm to near 70° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies with a little lighter winds, too.

Looking for rain? It’s not looking likely for the next few days heading into Thanksgiving. We’ll be keeping an eye on a front for the middle of next week, which could kick up some rain chances for mid-to-late week, but it’s certainly not a done deal yet. Stay tuned.

Thursday will kick off a stretch of below-normal temperatures that will continue into the first part of the weekend before we turn a little warmer for Sunday. We start Thursday in the mid-40s, but as cooler and drier air rushes into the area, producing some gusty winds at times, high temperatures will be limited to the low 60s at best despite full sunshine. This is closer to January normals than November normals — you’ll likely want to opt for some longer sleeves as a result, at least during the morning.

Showers will move into the area overnight and persist into a good chunk of Wednesday as a cold front moves by. We start Wednesday in the mid-60s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Showers should scour out by early evening, and from there, cooler and drier air will begin to work into the area. The airmass change will be very noticeable this go-around; we’ll start Thursday in the mid-40s, warming to the low-to-mid-60s in the afternoon at best. Friday will be even cooler, with lows in the low 40s warming to just the upper 50s in the afternoon despite full sunshine, roughly 10° below the normal temperature for November 22 and more reminiscent of normal highs for early January!

We’ve got another unseasonably warm day ahead Tuesday ahead of a front that will sweep through on Wednesday. Ahead of that front, we’ll see an increase in cloud cover, and eventually some shower activity later in the afternoon into the evening and overnight. Temperatures Tuesday start in the low to mid-50s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will keep the tides at bay, thankfully, and we should fall short of the coastal flooding threshold with the mid-morning high tide, with no coastal flooding expected for the next few days at least.

The week ahead gets off to a warm start, but some seasonably cool weather featuring temperatures a few clicks below normal sets in for the second half of the week.

Monday starts with temperatures in the upper 40s. As high pressure begins to shift offshore, we’ll start to see temperatures warm back to the mid-70s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. We’ll have one more round of coastal flooding in the morning, but it will not be nearly as severe as what we’ve seen the past few mornings as water levels should only peak around 7.2′ with the 9:31am high tide. Still, expect a few road closures in the more vulnerable trouble spots downtown for a few hours during the commute. From there, winds go more unfavorable and the astronomical impacts from the recent full moon continue to lessen.

The only period of unsettled weather looks to take place later Tuesday through Wednesday as a front comes through (the impetus for our cooldown beginning Thursday). Much of Tuesday should get in rain-free, but will be well on the warmer side of normal with lows in the low 50s yielding to highs in the mid-70s in the afternoon. Shower chances increase around and after sunset, and hang around through midday Wednesday. We’ll see cloud cover diminish as Wednesday goes on, but lagging cooler air will let temperatures back to the mid-70s for one more afternoon after an abnormally mild start in the low 60s.

Cool air begins to kick in overnight Wednesday, and we’ll start Thursday in the upper 40s. Highs on Thursday, though, will struggle above 60° despite considerable sunshine. We’ll repeat this performance on Friday, with an even cooler start in the low 40s. A slow warming trend begins over the weekend, but expect temperatures to remain below normal with highs in the low to mid-60s and lows in the low 40s each day with plenty of sunshine throughout.

Cool high pressure will be in control this weekend, and we will get a taste of more seasonable conditions for mid-November than we’ve had thus far this month.

First, though, there is the potential for major coastal flooding for the second time in three days with Saturday morning’s high tide, which is predicted around 7:46am. Water levels in Charleston Harbor are projected to peak between 8.1-8.3′ MLLW with this tide, and this will cause numerous road closures throughout downtown Charleston, as well as flooding issues on Isle of Palms, Mt. Pleasant, and perhaps even parts of James Island. Be vigilant and be ready to reroute in case you encounter a flooded road. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect between 6-10am, and if trends continue, expect this to be upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning. Also, if the predicted forecast height of 8.2′ comes to pass, it’d be a top-25 tide on record at Charleston Harbor.

Water levels should diminish by mid-morning, and from there, a fairly nice Saturday commences. Expect quite a bit of sunshine, with temperatures warming from the mid-40s in the morning to the upper 60s in the afternoon, just about right on target for normal for this point in the year. Sunday should turn a touch warmer, but a high of 70° is just a teeny bit warmer than normal, so that seasonable feel will continue. Unfortunately, another round of moderate to major coastal flooding is possible with Sunday morning’s high tide, though it should not be as severe as Saturday’s.

From there, a warming trend commences for the first half of the week before a mid-week front. The second half of next week looks much cooler than normal, with highs possibly not making it out of the 50s next Thursday! But let’s enjoy the weekend first.

Showers scour out overnight Thursday, and by Friday morning, clouds will be diminishing as cooler and drier air works into the area. We’ll start the day in the upper 40s to around 50°, while the continued influx of cooler air will keep highs pinned to the mid-60s despite increasingly full sunshine. The only fly in the ointment will be the risk for minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide, which should peak just before 7am. Water levels between 7.3-7.5′ are forecast, which will close some roads, though not as extensively as we saw Thursday morning.

Seasonable and quiet conditions continue for the weekend. Saturday should be a particularly nice day, with lows in the mid-40s yielding to highs in the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon, while temperatures turn a little warmer for Sunday as highs get to the low 70s after another upper 40s start. Sunshine will be very prevalent throughout the weekend, and I hope you get a chance to take advantage of weather that feels much more appropriate for mid-November.

Coastal flooding concerns will continue into the weekend, though, with major flooding expected with Saturday morning’s high tide as water levels are expected to peak around 8-8.2′ with the 7:46am high tide. Expect another round of numerous road closures in downtown Charleston on Saturday morning. Moderate to potentially major flooding can’t be ruled out for Sunday morning, either, as water levels once again approach 8′. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Watches, Warnings, and Advisories from the National Weather Service as your signal that travel could turn difficult.

Thursday figures to be a somewhat wet day at times across the Lowcountry, starting with salt water flooding downtown and ending up with showers across much of the area by evening.

First, the salt water flooding: Water levels around 7.9′ MLLW are expected with the 6:07am high tide Thursday. This will produce fairly widespread coastal flooding in downtown Charleston, and should also affect Long Point Road and parking areas around Shem Creek in Mt. Pleasant. Expect numerous road closures early on in the commute, with improving conditions heading into 8-9am. Be alert to detours around the aforementioned road closures, and never cross through floodwaters even if a road is closed — remember, this is all going to be salt water and that is incredibly not good for your car’s undercarriage!

The risk for showers should, thankfully, miss the worst of the salt water flooding. It will begin to kick up around mid-morning to midday, with the best chance of showers on Thursday afternoon into the early evening hours. Rainfall amounts should generally stay under a half-inch in most spots, but locally higher amounts are possible where heavier showers develop. Temperatures start in the mid-50s, topping out in the mid-70s early in the afternoon.