A decent weekend of weather awaits. While Saturday is the pick day of the weekend, if you are okay with dodging some showers, Sunday doesn’t look terrible, either. Generally speaking, we can expect highs in the low 80s each afternoon after lows in the mid-60s on Saturday and upper 60s to around 70° on Sunday. Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds will continue with high pressure still wedged southward across the area, though that high will begin to give way on Sunday and send rain chances up a little bit as a result. Can’t rule out some thunder, either, though that looks relatively unlikely.

We will need to watch times of high tide for minor to moderate coastal flooding as we approach the full moon next week. The continued onshore flow will help to drive water levels higher on top of already high astronomical tides, which should reach heights that will close some roads downtown. Be alert for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

Temperatures will continue to be generally seasonable if not slightly cooler than normal for Friday and the weekend as high pressure continues to wedge southward into the area, though we will see an uptick in moisture and, eventually, rain chances heading into Sunday.

Thursday will give us a really nice taste of fall as cool high pressure wedges southward into the area. We’ll start the day with temperatures around 60°, warming to just the mid-70s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. The northeasterly breeze will still be somewhat elevated, which may contribute to some minor tidal flooding around the 4:45 PM high tide. Otherwise, it’ll be an enjoyable day to get outside and touch some grass.

With Imelda departing to our east, high pressure will wedge down across the area, ushering in some cooler and drier air that’ll be particularly noticeable on Thursday. Shower chances return for Friday heading into the weekend, though.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and Imelda to the southeast will be tightening on Tuesday, and we should have a fairly breezy and seasonably cool day once again thanks to those northeast winds as well as cloud cover and a few lingering showers. Temperatures start around 70°, but should only warm to the upper 70s to maybe 80° depending on breaks in the clouds. The decaying coastal front will still be able to contribute to a few showers, but we should see shower chances diminish as we get through Tuesday and Imelda pulls further and further offshore.

There’s a chance that we could see some minor tidal flooding Tuesday afternoon courtesy of elevated water levels due to the onshore, northeasterly flow. The better chances for coastal flooding will begin Wednesday, though, and may be with us for a little bit as we head toward a full moon next week.

We’ll close September on a stormy note as moisture from Tropical Storm Imelda interacts with a stalled front/trough situated along the coast to produce solid shower and thunderstorm chances through Tuesday. From there, a good shot of fall welcomes us to October before more shower and storm chances return for Friday and the weekend.

Tropical Depression Nine continues to organize, moving NW at 5 MPH on approach to the Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Nine is still expected to strengthen, becoming a tropical storm tonight or early tomorrow morning. The next name on the list is Imelda.

On the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center, future Imelda will continue to move north-northwest heading into Monday, gradually strengthening into a hurricane (albeit a low-end Category 1). From there, it will stall out somewhere off the GA/SC coast Monday night into Tuesday, meandering until Humberto — a category 5 beast well out in the central Atlantic — gets close enough to help weaken the blocking high pressure to the north and “pulls” presumed Imelda eastward, away from the continental US.

Sunday should feature another round of showers and storms, most likely in the afternoon, as a front in the vicinity starts to retrograde westward a bit courtesy of TD Nine (which should soon get the name Imelda; it hasn’t yet as of this writing). Temperatures will be near if not slightly cooler than normal once again Sunday with the prevalence of cloud cover (especially in the afternoon) and the slightly cooler and drier airmass behind the front. We start the day in the upper 60s in the metro to the low 70s at the coast, warming to the low to mid-80s in the afternoon before scattered showers and storms kick back up. From there, we will see several more days of inclement weather courtesy of the approaching tropical cyclone.

I’ll have a more detailed post specific to the tropics a little later this evening once we have the new track and intensity forecast in hand.

A slow-moving cold front combined with a stalling upper-level low will help spread rain further into the metro for the weekend, especially on Saturday, as we continue to monitor the progress of now-Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

A front and upper-level low will send weather downhill as we get into Friday afternoon and the rest of the weekend, though that won’t be the main weather story, methinks, as we monitor the disturbance currently known as Invest 94L in the tropics for possible development and subsequent impacts next week.