Standard late-July weather continues for Thursday. We’ll see primarily partly cloudy skies across the area with highs topping out in the low 90s ahead of the seabreeze. Heat indices should top out around 103° or so, with some locally higher values closer to the coast possible for a brief time as the seabreeze moves inland. Said seabreeze should be responsible for a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, moving inland with time. Some locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible in the strongest storms, but they shouldn’t last terribly long at any one location.

Not too much to write home about in the weather department for the rest of the work week — just more in the way of heat, humidity, and a slight uptick in showers and storms as we head toward Friday.

Air temperature-wise, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the rest of the work week with highs topping out in the mid-90s. However, drier mid-level air will mix down to the surface during the heat of the day, and this will help keep heat indices around 100-101°. (Not great, but it could be worse.) The aforementioned dry mid-levels should keep most, if not all, shower and storm activity at bay, though you can never truly rule any stray shower or storm out during this point of the year.

Moisture starts to return Thursday, and this manifests itself with a little higher heat index in the afternoon — approaching 105° — and a slightly better (but still low) chance of seabreeze thunderstorms. Friday could see a little better coverage of afternoon thunderstorms as heat indices top out over 105° at peak heating. (Remember, heat advisory criteria for July 1 and beyond is 110° for two hours.) Overall, there’s nothing in this forecast that’s terribly out of bounds for this point in the year — just mind the heat and be ready to head inside if a thunderstorm gets close.

Tuesday’s forecast looks relatively benign across the area as partly cloudy skies dominate thanks to increasingly drier air aloft. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the coast before highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should top out in the low 100s with low-70s dewpoints across the area. A shower or storm can’t be ruled out along the seabreeze, but most of us should get Tuesday in rain-free.

Believe it or not, it’s already the last full week of July. Climatologically speaking, this week’s forecast is about as end-of-July as it gets: Mid-70s lows each morning, low 90s highs each afternoon with isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances as the trough that made Sunday in particular quite unsettled lifts out and ridging begins to build back in.

Monday could offer up some slightly better shower and storm chances during the day as a little spin remains in the atmosphere, but a repeat of Sunday’s deluge (more on that in a minute) is certainly not in the cards with generally scattered coverage expected.

Mid-week will feature highs generally 92-93° with a few seabreeze showers and thunderstorms each afternoon in a very standard summertime regime with Atlantic ridging firmly in place. If anything, that will get even a little stronger as we head into the weekend; temperatures will respond appropriately by heading back into the mid-90s on Saturday and upper 90s on Sunday. Dewpoints won’t quite be as nasty as they were this past week, but low-70s dewpoints should still yield a period of heat indices 104-106°.

Standard July warmth and mugginess will continue on Sunday. We’ll start the day in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies, and we should get the first part of the day in rain-free. From there, we’ll start to see showers and thunderstorms develop by mid-afternoon and make their way into the area from the west and southwest throughout the rest of the evening. The strongest storms could produce strong wind gusts, while heavy rain and frequent lightning will be more widespread concerns. Be ready to bring outdoor activities inside if thunderstorms approach.

Air temperatures return to more reasonable levels for mid-July this weekend as a trough digs in a bit more, nudging the ridge that had brought us quite a hot stretch back to the west. It will also improve shower and thunderstorm chances across the area starting Saturday afternoon. Granted, it will still be humid, and heat indices on Saturday in particular will head back north of 100°, but not quite as high as we’ve seen the past few days. Showers and thunderstorms should fire in the afternoon and evening as disturbances round the base of the trough. One or two of these storms could produce strong wind gusts. Be ready for rapidly changing conditions, but don’t cancel any outdoor plans, either.

Sunday could be a little more active as another disturbance passes by. It could instigate scattered storms by midday, but they’ll be more likely in the afternoon. Again, not expecting a washout by any stretch, but be ready to bring outdoor plans inside if thunderstorms approach your location. Highs top out in the low 90s Sunday with heat indices approaching 100°.

We have one more really hot day on Friday, with heat indices well in excess of 105° expected one more time in the afternoon. A few 110° readings won’t be ruled out, either, and it’s possible another Heat Advisory will be needed as air temperatures head into the upper 90s.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will again figure into the forecast, and one or two of them could produce damaging downburst winds. There is a risk for more organized severe weather moving down the Savannah River Friday night. The degree to which we experience this will be largely determined by the position of the subtropical ridge, which should retrograde a little more westward by tomorrow evening, keeping the main threat to our southwest. We’ll watch it, though.

Heading into Saturday and Sunday, troughing combined with a weak front stalling out nearby will keep afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances in vogue. Temperatures won’t be quite as scorching as we’ve seen, though, with highs topping out only in the low 90s thanks to the lower heights aloft. This is closer to normal for this point in the year. Heat indices, however, will still run above 100° each afternoon, and could make a run for 105° on Saturday. Stay cool if you’re spending time outdoors, and be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case thunderstorms threaten.

Thursday is going to be another hot day across the area. Expect to start the day just barely below 80° inland and likely a couple degrees above it closer to the coast. We’ll warm back into the mid-90s during the day, and with dewpoints not mixing out quite as much — expect them to hang around in the mid-70s — we should see heat indices peak around 110° or so in the afternoon. This is certainly well into the danger zone for heat illness, so please do take it easy if you must be outside. There’s no Heat Advisory as of this writing, but don’t be surprised if one is issued by morning.

Attention then turns to the potential for showers and thunderstorms to move into the area in the afternoon and evening courtesy of a disturbance rounding a retreating ridge of high pressure. Most of these storms should be efficient rainfall and lightning producers, and a few of these storms could be on the strong side with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Hail can’t be ruled out, either. Stay alert to rapidly changing conditions as we get into tomorrow afternoon and evening, and don’t be surprised if there are evening commute impacts.

Fortunately, wildfire smoke will play much less of a role in Thursday’s weather as it continues to disperse southward.

We’ll continue this hot stretch of weather as we get into Wednesday and through the rest of the work week. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 90s each afternoon with heat indices peaking around 105-110° each day in many spots, with perhaps even higher heat indices closer to the coast where the higher-dewpoint air will be found. Lows won’t offer much in the way of relief — generally expect just upper 70s across much of the metro, with temperatures not going below 80° downtown and at the beaches over the next few days. With drier air aloft, it’ll be hard to get much in the way of thunderstorms to fire along the pinned seabreeze, and they likely won’t be deep enough to really overturn the atmosphere much, possibly leaving even muggier conditions behind them.

Wildfire smoke will once again cloud the sky a little bit on Wednesday, but not quite to the degree that we saw on Tuesday. The air quality forecast is on the lower side of code yellow for Wednesday, but that seems to be primarily due to ozone. As always, we’ll keep an eye on this in case smoke mixes down a little more than expected.

Troughing digs back in across the area over the weekend, which will send temperatures downward and bring rain chances upward, breaking this mini-heat wave. (You either get the heat or storms this time of year — not really a third option!)

We begin a rather hot stretch of weather — yes, even warmer than we’ve been — starting Tuesday as ridging builds aloft. Downslope flow from the northwest will act to warm the air as it sinks as well as help to keep the seabreeze pinned closer to the coast, which will help drive air temperatures well into the mid-to-upper 90s across the area after an already warm start in the upper 70s to around 80° at the coast. Mix in humidity and you’ll find heat indices across the area ranging from about 105-110° during the height of the afternoon. We’ll be in this heat index “danger zone” for a few days, so be sure to take it easy if you have to be outdoors during this time, and get lots and lots of water.

As the ridge builds aloft, this will also help to put a lid on afternoon thunderstorms for the most part; a shower or storm can’t be totally ruled out, but don’t count on one for any sort of heat relief.

Finally, Canadian wildfire smoke will add a milky haze to the overall sky composition. Upstream observations suggest that there could be some minor air quality impacts, but so far no major issues are anticipated. Stay tuned, though.