Showers and thunderstorms will be off and on throughout the weekend, particularly Saturday as a disturbance aloft ripples through the area. Winds turning onshore will bring some more moist air into the area, and we could see showers and thunderstorms begin to affect the area by daybreak. Some spots could see some fairly heavy rain at times, and a strong or severe storm isn’t totally out of the realm of possibility (though is rather unlikely). It won’t rain all day, but be ready to enact indoor plans on Saturday if necessary. Highs top out in the mid-to-upper 80s given the cloud cover and rain expected.
Storms should be a little more sparse coverage-wise throughout the day Sunday, though most of us should see at least some rainfall at some point throughout the day. Much like Saturday, the rain risk looks to start at the coast in the morning hours before shifting inland with the seabreeze in the afternoon. Once again, a storm or two could be strong, and some of the rain could be heavy at times, but widespread severe weather just doesn’t seem to be in the equation. Highs on Sunday run a click warmer, but still generally in the upper 80s.
A stalling cold front and a cutoff low aloft will combine to bring shower and storm chances back to the area starting Friday afternoon, peaking on Saturday, and then gradually tapering on Sunday. Highs on Friday top out in the low 90s, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms generally being found along and ahead of the seabreeze. With the upper low drifting across the area Saturday, showers and thunderstorms could fire at any point, with some guidance hinting at Saturday getting off to a bit of a soggy start as showers and thunderstorms drift inland. Highs on Saturday top out in the mid-to-upper 80s given the rain and cloud cover. We’ll see the upper low lift out of the area on Sunday, decreasing the risk of showers and storms somewhat, but coverage should still be decent given the nearby front.
We have one more rain-free and rather warm day coming up on Thursday. Expect highs to once again top out in the mid-90s under partly cloudy skies, with some humidity mixing in to drive heat indices to the upper 90s to around 100°. It’s worth noting that the NWS forecast high of 95°, if it did indeed come to pass, would tie the daily high temperature record set in 1941 and then tied in 1947 and 2019. (For reference, last year’s high on September 7 topped out a degree shy of the record.) Ridging will weaken throughout the day, but much of us should expect to get the day in rain-free. I don’t know that I’d totally rule out a shower or storm closer to I-95, though.
The forecast for the rest of the work week is generally on track: Temperatures in the mid-90s will continue through Thursday with peak heat indices around 100° thanks to some, but not too much, humidity. Skies will generally run partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Storm chances don’t return to the picture until Friday, and even then, it looks like coverage will be more on the isolated side. The weaker ridge will keep temperatures running a little lower (low 90s) on Friday, but above-normal temperatures look to continue heading into the weekend despite steadily increasing storm chances as a front arrives and stalls out nearby. (Remember, normal is looking a little lower these days: normal highs for this week generally run around 87°.)
