All tropical storm warnings have been discontinued as Danny moves away and weakens, and so we can now look forward to a calmer and more sunny Tuesday. We could see an isolated shower or storm come in off the Atlantic in the morning, but other than that, we should see a good bit of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, still a few degrees below normal for late June. Rain chances head up as the week goes on, and it’s conceivable that this could end up being the driest day of the week, so try to take advantage where you can.
Tropical Storm Danny, which was named in a tropical cyclone update a little after 3PM after radar and recon data indicated it had strengthened, is on course to make landfall somewhere between Hilton Head and Edisto over the next couple hours.
At 5PM, it had maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH — a little up from the previous advisory. It’s still moving WNW at 16 MPH, and the NHC center fix had it 35 miles east of Beaufort and 35 miles SSW of Charleston. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Charleston County coastline, where gusts to tropical storm force remain possible through this evening.
On and off rain squalls have been pelting much of the Charleston area over the past few hours, with winds consistently gusting 20-30 MPH at the airport. It is worth noting, though, that with much of the heavy thunderstorm activity remaining displaced well to the west of the center, rainfall estimates have been rather tame across much of the area. The main exception is a small swath from Kiawah to Edisto, which received upwards of 1.5″ of rain after a heavy squall came through then. There have been no reports of flooding in the Charleston metro area, and so far only one report of a downed tree.
Model data and radar trends indicate that we are through the worst of it here in Charleston. The eastern semicircle of the storm is much drier, owing to the persistent wind shear that has been blowing the thunderstorms out to the west. Scattered showers continue across inland locations, but we are seeing a marked decrease in rainfall rates and coverage over the last couple hours. Still, tropical storm-force gusts will be possible especially from Charleston Harbor southward to Folly, Kiawah, Seabrook, and Edisto Islands through tonight, so we cannot totally rule out isolated power outages or additional downed trees.
The National Hurricane Center has classified Tropical Depression Four about 110 miles east-southeast of Charleston. It is moving west-northwest at 16 MPH. The forecast is for the storm to briefly strengthen to Tropical Storm Danny before the center makes landfall — currently pegged to roughly around Kiawah Island — this evening.
As for the going forecast, this doesn’t really change much. Gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall remain the primary concerns especially near the coast. A power outage or two is not out of the question, but the thinking from earlier holds: this is going to be a lousy beach day with windy and rainy conditions.
High tide is coming up at 11:45 AM. Radar trends do suggest some rain could be in the area around that time, but the heaviest rain has so far shown itself to remain south of us. Indeed, the sheared nature of the storm has much of its thunderstorm activity well to the west of the circulation. However, given the more northward motion than models had previously indicated, the risk for some heavier rain increases slightly in the metro area. We’ll want to continue to watch this for the next few hours.
Next intermediate advisory from NHC with a position update comes at 2PM, with the next full track and advisory package at 5.
Get ready for periods of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with heavy rain and gusty winds at the coast as a tropical disturbance of some kind comes ashore south of the Charleston metro area in the afternoon. While it’s unclear what state the disturbance will be in by the time it arrives tomorrow, the impacts are largely expected to remain the same.
So far, Sunday has run a little drier than previous days without a better forcing mechanism to kick off showers and thunderstorms. While a shower or two cannot be totally ruled out, most of us should stay dry today as highs head into the upper 80s. Humidity will make it feel closer to the low 90s, especially right in the wake of the seabreeze passage this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue, and we should still see a decent breeze at the beaches throughout the day. All in all, not too shabby for the last Sunday in June. (Hard to believe, isn’t it?)
This weekend will feature scattered storms both days, with a little better coverage on Saturday as a trough moves inland. The good news is that it won’t rain all day, and there will be plenty of sunshine mixed in around the storms. Coverage becomes more isolated on Sunday, generally along and ahead of the seabreeze. Severe weather doesn’t look to be a major issue, but remember that all thunderstorms are dangerous thanks to the lightning they produce.
Temperatures will run a little warmer this weekend, but onshore flow will continue to keep them tamped down a few degrees below normal (about 90° this time of year). Mix in humidity and it’ll feel a little more like the low 90s in the afternoon. That’s pretty warm, but it could be so much worse in late June.
