A nor’easter will make this second-to-last shopping weekend before Christmas a little tricky, with heavy rain, gusty winds, and coastal flooding all coming into play, especially on Sunday.

Reinforcing strong high pressure building into the area on Thursday keeps our weather generally cool and quiet, though winds will be blustery and there will be a coastal flooding risk in the morning.

Lows will dip only to the low 40s owing to breezy conditions restricting better radiational cooling. However, cool air pushing in from the northeast will keep highs capped to the upper 50s despite plenty of sunshine. Combine that with an increasingly stiff breeze — 15-20 MPH in the metro, with higher gusts — and you’ll be glad for a jacket with some wind-breaking capability. At least the sun will be out, and the sky should be largely unmarred by any cloud cover.

High tide around 8:37am will get high enough for minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding smack dab in the middle of the commute. Be ready for possible road closures if downtown is in your commute plans. I’d also be cautious around Long Point Road near Snee Farm as water levels could approach thresholds to flood that road as well. Coastal flooding will remain a concern for the next few mornings, especially as we get into the weekend.

Sunday will feature more in the way of cloud cover as another disturbance affects the area. High pressure wedging southward will help keep things on the cool side as northeasterly winds continue to blow into the area. We start the day in the mid-40s and may not reach 60° in the afternoon thanks to the cloud cover. We should stay rain-free for the morning through early afternoon; from there, showers may begin to develop and move across the area. The best chance for showers will be in the evening as low pressure to the south makes the closest approach. Rainfall should generally be on the light side, but a few pockets of heavier rain certainly can’t be ruled out. Rain should clear the area by Monday morning as high pressure builds back into the area.

The other weather concern for Sunday will arrive early in the morning in the form of coastal flooding. Favorable northeasterly winds and astronomical effects the upcoming full moon will drive water levels into minor to possibly moderate flood stage around the 6:44am high tide Sunday. Salt water may close some roads as water levels approach 7.4-7.6′. If you have early-morning travel plans around the edges of the downtown peninsula, especially on the west side, prepare to reroute around flooded and closed roads.

Showers will gradually depart as Friday wears on thanks to low pressure moving away from the area. It’ll be an unseasonably warm day, with lows starting near 60° before temperatures top out in the low to mid-70s in the afternoon. We’ll see some breaks in the clouds between showers, so once again, we’re not expecting a totally gray, washed out day. The only other issue will be the potential for some minor salt water flooding around the 10:25am high tide; expect water levels to peak around 7′ or so, putting some salt water once again on Hagood at Fishburne and perhaps on Lockwood. Widespread flooding issues are not expected.

The weather improves just in time for the weekend. Clouds will be decreasing Saturday as deeper moisture departs. We start the day in the mid-50s before warming into the low 70s in the early afternoon. From there, a cold front will get through later in the day; expect a dry passage thanks to much drier air in place. Sunday will be noticeably cooler — expect lows in the mid-40s, some 10° cooler than Saturday morning — before warming to around 70° in the afternoon.

This week’s shower chances will peak Thursday as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast, spawning low pressure off the Florida coast. Expect shower activity to generally be scattered in nature, though, with some dry periods and maybe a few breaks in the clouds possible at times. Warmer air will make inroads as the wedge of high pressure which kept temperatures fairly well suppressed over the past few days begins to give way. Expect highs to top out in the low 70s in the afternoon as a result.

There will again be the risk for some minor coastal flooding with Thursday morning’s high tide, which is expected to peak around 9:33am. Much like Wednesday morning, water levels should reach 7-7.2′ again, which should be enough to put some salt water on the roads but not enough to begin to introduce widespread issues. Still, the vulnerable locations on the west side of the peninsula near The Citadel and Gadsden Green will likely take on salt water once again during the morning. Be ready to reroute around flooded roads.

Showers re-enter the weather picture for the second half of the work week, though we’ll warm up a little in the process. Expect overcast on Wednesday before scattered showers commence in the afternoon. It doesn’t look like it’ll be a terribly heavy rain, but it could be enough to make the roads a little slick, so be careful when commuting. Temperatures start in the low 50s and rise to about the mid-60s in the afternoon as the cool wedge of high pressure hangs on for one more day.

The wedge starts to weaken Thursday, and despite overcast with periods of showers continuing, temperatures will run a little warmer. Expect mid-50s to start with low 70s in the afternoon. A few peeks of sun will be possible Friday, though scattered showers are expected to continue. Temperatures will run even warmer Friday, with lows around 60° and highs in the low-to-mid-70s.

Minor coastal flooding will continue to be possible with the morning high tides heading into the weekend. Water levels will generally peak around 7-7.1′ or so each day, which is enough to put some salt water on vulnerable roads in downtown Charleston. The highest tide capable of producing flooding on Wednesday is predicted around 8:47am, Thursday a little after 9:30am, and Friday around 10:30am. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

After a dreary weekend, some sun begins to peek back out for Monday, and this will help temperatures get closer to — but still a touch below — mid-November norms. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 60s Monday through Wednesday, with high temperatures reaching the low 70s starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend, with a slight cooldown for Sunday in the wake of a weak cold front.

Clouds will steadily increase through the first part of the work week as a reasonably vigorous disturbance ejects out of the southern Plains, with surface low pressure moving southeast from the Gulf Coast toward the Florida peninsula, dragging an inverted trough to its north that will help be a forcing mechanism for some shower activity here at home. There’s a slight chance of showers as soon as Wednesday, with rain chances peaking Thursday before gradually tapering Friday and perhaps into Saturday depending on the timing of the trough’s exit and the aforementioned front crossing the area. Most of Saturday should be rather nice, and Sunday will offer even more in the way of sunshine.

Legitimate sweater weather arrives Wednesday as the coldest air of the season thus far moves into the area. We start the day in the mid-40s but don’t expect temperatures to climb too much beyond the mid-50s despite lots of sunshine. In fact, we may at least tie a different kind of record high on Wednesday — the record low maximum temperature for November 1, which was also 55° last set in 2014.

Thursday looks to get off to the coldest start since early March, and a continued north to northeasterly breeze will drive the wind chill down to around or even below freezing. Dress accordingly in the morning! From there, highs will run a few degrees warmer than they did on Wednesday, but that’s not saying much as we’ll still see temperatures struggle to reach 60° despite unencumbered insolation. The record low maximum of 58° on Thursday is probably safe, but it’ll be close.

The airmass starts to moderate on Friday, though, as warmer air begins to work back into the area. We start Friday in the low 40s before warming to the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The warming trend continues into the weekend, too, as we head back to the 70s each afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Changes are on the way on Halloween as a strong cold front moves across the area later in the day, bringing an uptick in cloud cover, maybe a shower or two, and a surge of the coldest air so far this season to start November. We start Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60° with just a few clouds to start. From there, expect cloud cover to gradually thicken as the front gets closer. We should see it get through sometime mid-afternoon into the early evening; you’ll notice it when winds shift around more to the north.

Trick-or-treaters will want a light jacket as temperatures cool into the 50s throughout the evening. As mentioned, a shower or two will be possible, but the risk is quite low.

The week ahead will feature the strongest cold snap of the season thus far sandwiched between a warm start and a warm finish. It’s a classic “shorts then sweaters” week of fall weather in the Lowcountry as a strong front moves by late on Halloween.