This weekend’s forecast is looking pretty good by 2023 standards, and will certainly be a far cry from what last weekend looked like. Saturday will be the warmer of the two days with highs topping out in the mid-80s in the afternoon. A few showers will be possible along the seabreeze, but those should be few and far between. A cold front moves by overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, which will usher in some cooler and drier air that’ll keep highs capped around 80° in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Watch for some breezy conditions in the wake of the front on Sunday, with gusts near 30 MPH possible particularly on elevated surfaces and at the beaches.
After an unusually chilly weekend, we’ve got a really nice start to the new work week coming up as cool, dry high pressure continues its hold on the area. We’ll still see a series of chilly starts through Wednesday, with lows in the mid-40s each morning. Highs gradually moderate through the period, peaking in the upper 60s on Monday, low 70s on Tuesday, and mid-70s on Wednesday under plenty of sunshine. Winds on Monday will still be a little on the breezy side, with occasional gusts to 30 MPH possible.
Thursday will represent one more rain-free day with a little warmer weather as highs peak near 80°. Low pressure advancing northward out of the Gulf will help usher showers and maybe a few thunderstorms into the area on Friday (though a total rainout looks unlikely). The overall airmass turns warmer, with lows in the 60s Friday morning offering a sharp departure from the last several days. Highs top out in the mid-70s with shower and thunderstorm activity likely tempering warmth. Scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm remain possible Saturday into Sunday, though with far less coverage than Friday. Highs top out in the low 80s each day this weekend after starting in the mid-60s.
After a chilly, raw day across the area in which we tied the record cold high temperature, the rain comes to an end Sunday morning and we begin to dry out. Cloud cover will hang tough for much of the day, though we should get some peeks of sun late. One of the main weather stories for this Easter Sunday will be the continued chill; high pressure continuing to wedge into the area will keep highs in the mid-50s after starting in the mid-40s. If the NWS forecast high of 57° verifies, it’d be the second consecutive day tying a record cold high temperature.
The second weather story of the day will be the gusty northeast winds and the potential for major coastal flooding with the late night high tide. Winds will be brisk, sustained 15-20 MPH with gusts approaching 30 MPH at times, with even higher gusts possible at the coast and on the higher bridges. The persistent northeasterly wind will also drive tidal departures up over 2′, potentially pushing the 11:04 PM high tide up to around 8′, which is major coastal flooding territory. Fortunately, we’ll be done with the rain, and that will keep the flooding issues confined largely to tidal areas. Still, numerous road closures are possible late Sunday, and you’ll want to keep that in mind if you have late-day travel plans around downtown.
Well, this certainly will not go down as one of the better Easter weekends, weather-wise, as high pressure wedging into the area keeps temperatures well below normal for this point in the year while also keeping showers a prevalent part of the forecast. Don’t count on much, if any, sun on Saturday as scattered showers in the morning and early afternoon turn more steady heading into the later afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures really won’t move much — we’ll start around 51° and only head up to about 54° as a chilly northeast breeze and the rain reinforce the cold air damming regime that’ll be in place.
Showers will continue well into Sunday, but will gradually become a little more scattered as the plume of deeper moisture shunts offshore. The wedge will remain in place, but a somewhat thinner cloud deck and less rainfall should allow temperatures a fighting chance to approach 60° in the afternoon. It’ll be quite breezy — winds will generally run about 20 MPH with higher gusts, especially near the coast. Regardless, you’ll need rain gear for Easter sunrise services.
We get a good break from the gray skies on Saturday as we find ourselves between storm systems. The lull will bring us a nice, seasonable day, with lows in the mid-40s followed by highs in the mid-to-upper 60s, right in the ballpark for where we should be at this point in the year. The only fly in the ointment will be the risk for minor to moderate salt water flooding around the 9:29am high tide.
Clouds build back up Saturday evening as the next storm system makes its approach to give us another round of rain for Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the area throughout the day, allowing temperatures to top out in the mid-70s despite showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the area. The best chance for rain will be in the morning through the early afternoon hours. Expect the front to get through by evening, which will shut off the rain and dry out the air. Winds will be a little breezy with sustained winds approaching 20 MPH with higher gusts.
Sunday will mark the end of this king tide cycle, with minor flooding possible with the 10:28am high tide. A few downpours will be possible with the storm system moving by on Sunday, and we’ll want to watch for any to coincide with the mid-morning high tide.
Improving weather returns to start the new work week; the next shower chance will be mid-week, followed by seasonable temperatures to start December.
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving Day! The next few days will be a “sunshine sandwich” — overcast and rain, followed by mostly sunny skies, followed by another round of overcast and rain. We will also continue to contend with coastal flooding with the morning high tides through Sunday.
We have a relatively mild Thanksgiving Day ahead as temperatures start in the mid-50s, about 10° above normal for this point in the year. Pesky cloud cover will remain pesky with the coastal trough lingering offshore, and a few showers will be possible before rain chances increase further after sunset as more moisture makes its way ashore. Overall, don’t be surprised to dodge a shower or two, but I suspect that a lot of us get a majority of Thanksgiving in rain-free.
Friday & the weekend: Periods of showers with a nice day in the middle
Shower chances will peak on Friday as a warm front moves by followed by a cold front moving in from the north overnight. Lows will approach 15° above normal with cloud cover and a moist airmass in place. The warm front will help temperatures reach the low 70s in the afternoon despite shower activity that’s expected to be in the area. (A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, either.) These showers will work their way out of here overnight with the aforementioned cold frontal passage.
Saturday should remain mostly dry with a mix of clouds and sun remaining in place. Temperatures will once again bottom out around 10°+ degrees above normal for another mild start followed by highs running right around 70° in the afternoon.
Showers return to the forecast Sunday as another cold front moves by the area. Once again, highs in the low 70s will follow a seasonably mild start to the day in the mid-50s. We should see showers begin to decrease later in the afternoon, paving the way for a cooler, drier, and sunnier Monday.
Coastal flooding remains a concern with morning high tides
This morning’s high tide peaked around 7.02′, which scraped minor coastal flooding thresholds. Expect additional rounds of minor to moderate salt water flooding around times of the morning’s high tide through Thanksgiving and the long weekend. High tide on Thanksgiving morning is forecast to peak around 7.5′, or moderate flood stage, around 7:43am. We should see similar results from Friday morning’s high tide which is predicted to peak around 8:34am. Minor coastal flooding is forecast for Saturday morning’s 9:29am high tide, while guidance indicates another round of flooding will be possible for Sunday morning’s 10:28am high tide. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
Nicole’s roughest weather arrives tomorrow and will last through Friday afternoon before improvement sets in just in time for the weekend. Heavy rain, gusty winds, tidal flooding, and a few tornadoes are all on the table with this event. Here’s what to expect.