Changes are on the way on Halloween as a strong cold front moves across the area later in the day, bringing an uptick in cloud cover, maybe a shower or two, and a surge of the coldest air so far this season to start November. We start Tuesday in the upper 50s to around 60° with just a few clouds to start. From there, expect cloud cover to gradually thicken as the front gets closer. We should see it get through sometime mid-afternoon into the early evening; you’ll notice it when winds shift around more to the north.

Trick-or-treaters will want a light jacket as temperatures cool into the 50s throughout the evening. As mentioned, a shower or two will be possible, but the risk is quite low.

The week ahead will feature the strongest cold snap of the season thus far sandwiched between a warm start and a warm finish. It’s a classic “shorts then sweaters” week of fall weather in the Lowcountry as a strong front moves by late on Halloween.

Rinse and repeat: More quiet and warm weather is on tap for Thursday (and beyond!) High pressure remains in control, and that’ll keep things rain-free and rather warm for late October. We start the day in the low 60s (for reference, the normal low for October 26 is 54°) and warm to around 80° in the afternoon. Much like Wednesday, we’ll see a few clouds amongst otherwise blue skies.

The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for some minor coastal flooding with the Thursday evening high tide. Water levels should peak between 7-7.2′ in the harbor, and this’ll cause some salt water to spill onto the typical trouble spots roughly an hour or two on either side of the 6:49 PM high tide. We’ll probably land a Coastal Flood Advisory during Thursday evening’s commute, so be ready to route around a little salt water especially around the Citadel and MUSC.

The story of this week’s weather will be high pressure keeping a firm grasp on the area for the rest of the week (and maybe even the rest of October). This will lead to generally quiet weather, with a warming trend bringing us into the low 80s starting around midweek. Monday will be the coolest of the set in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage; we start the day around 50° and warm into the low 70s in the afternoon with just a few clouds. Tuesday starts a touch cooler, but the warming trend will begin with temperatures reaching a little warmer in the afternoon. A decent stretch of above-normal warmth takes hold from there, with variable cloud cover but little else to write home about as moisture is generally scant. All in all, it’s not a bad week to get the car washed (note to self) and enjoy some outdoor lunches.

The only concern may end up being coastal flooding at times of high tide possibly starting as early as Tuesday. Winds will be out of the northeast as high pressure settles in to our northwest, and this combined with the upcoming full moon will once again start to send water levels above coastal flood criteria as we head into the latter half of the week. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

Our solid start to October continues on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures continuing with high pressure in control. The only potential issue will be the risk for moderate coastal flooding with high tide just before noon; there could be travel disruptions as some of y’all look to grab lunch, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, though, it’ll be another very nice day.

A blocking pattern aloft will keep our weather relatively quiet for much of the week before a front approaches heading into the weekend, which might deliver the first real shot of fall weather to the area for early next week.

Cloud cover will generally be sparse through Wednesday as high pressure remains firmly in control across the area. Our mornings will generally start in the low to mid-60s with highs topping out in the low 80s each afternoon with plenty of sunshine to be had. Cloud cover begins to tick up a bit for Thursday into Friday as the aforementioned front begins to approach the area. It remains to be seen just how much moisture moves back into the area; for now, the forecast remains rain-free, though it wouldn’t shock me to see some shower or thunderstorm chances added as we head into Friday. Saturday should feature decreasing clouds, and then it looks like a reinforcing shot of cooler air moves in for Sunday that could knock temperatures well below normal for this point in the year. We aren’t into sweater weather yet, but we’re making progress!

Overall, the weekend forecast is looking solid for doing stuff outside. Expect comfortable starts in the mid-60s (warmer at the beaches), more than ample sunshine (especially Sunday), and warm afternoons with high pressure in control. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the set with highs topping out around 85° in the afternoon. A reinforcing round of slightly cooler air moves in for Sunday, and that will help cap highs in the low 80s.

After a fairly cool and cloudy day on Thursday, cloud cover breaks up a bit for Friday into the weekend, and this will allow temperatures to return to the low to mid-80s each afternoon. Temperatures will peak Saturday before a little cooler air works into the area Sunday. Overall, it looks pretty good to get out and do stuff, especially with the northeasterly winds backing off a bit more as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Rain will generally be a non-factor in our weather starting Thursday (except for maybe some brushes near the coast) heading into Friday and the rest of the weekend. We start the day around 65° with some cloud cover in the area. A northeasterly breeze courtesy of high pressure wedging into the area from the northeast will continue to keep temperatures down to about 80° at warmest in the afternoon with cloud cover hanging around. We should see some sun break through at times as well, though.

The main weather concern will be coastal flooding at times of high tide, and it could be somewhat disruptive to the morning commute in particular. High tide around 7:30am will top out around 7.9′, which is the high end of moderate flood stage in Charleston Harbor. The evening high tide should reach even higher, with water levels around 8.1′ expected around 8pm. Watch for road closures as you commute Thursday morning and then again a little later Thursday evening, particularly if downtown is in your plans.

High pressure wedging into the area will keep us on the somewhat cool and cloudy side for the next few days, with shower chances peaking Wednesday before tapering off for Thursday and Friday (though cloud cover and the occasional shower or storm will linger). Highs on Wednesday and Thursday shouldn’t get out of the upper 70s, while we may trend a little warmer Friday as some drier air begins to work in and a little more sunshine becomes possible.