Thursday’s forecast is quiet and a little cool for this point in the year as we kick off climatological summer on June 1. Temperatures will generally run a couple degrees below normal on Thursday as cloud cover and a northeast breeze helps to keep things a little on the “cool” side. (Quotes around “cool” because it’ll still be warm and a little muggy, too.) As is customary for June, a shower can’t be totally discounted within this regime, but the vast majority of us get the day in rain-free.
After what’s turned out to be a really beautiful Memorial Day, we head back to work and school on Tuesday with similar, if not slightly warmer, weather expected. We’ll start the day a few degrees warmer — generally around the mid-60s — and highs should warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon. There’s a risk for a stray shower or thunderstorm in the later afternoon and early evening hours as the seabreeze gets rolling, but otherwise, the vast majority of us get Tuesday in rain-free as well.
The sun will make a return to our skies for Memorial Day as surface low pressure continues to move away from the area and westerly winds dry things out a bit. We start the day much cooler than normal, with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s. (The record low of 53° set in 1961 remains safe.) Sunshine and the aforementioned westerly winds should help highs top out in the low 80s — a couple ticks below normal as well, but certainly much more seasonable than the 60s and 70s of recent days. The only fly in the ointment may be a stray thunderstorm or two in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland. If the beach is in your Memorial Day plans, keep an eye out later in the afternoon as storm motions will be toward the coast. Otherwise, no concerns.
We are through the worst of our experience with the coastal storm that has been bothering us for the better part of two days, and improvement will start to show itself on Sunday. We should see showers mostly shut down around daybreak or so, but I’m not sure a stray or two can be totally discounted throughout the day. We should start to see some breaks in the clouds, and by the evening, I suspect we’ll have at least some sunshine to close out the day. Temperatures will remain well below normal for this point in the year, topping out in the low 70s after starting the day around 60°.
Wet weather will kick off the Memorial Day weekend as a low pressure system rides up the coast and affects the Carolinas with heavy rain, gusty winds, rough surf, strong rip currents, and very hazardous marine conditions. It’s also going to be very unseasonably cool, at least to start — think highs in the 60s for Saturday. (Seriously.)
Friday will start in the upper 50s (the normal low for May 26 is 66°, for comparison) and only warm to the low 70s with cloud cover and increasing shower activity throughout the day. Winds will be breezy, coming in from the northeast around 20 MPH with higher gusts. The best chance for showers will begin in the evening hours and last well into Saturday as the low pressure system comes ashore somewhere between Charleston and Wilmington.
We start to see a shift toward more unsettled weather beginning Thursday as low pressure begins to organize offshore, sending more moisture and some windy conditions our way. We start the day around 60° as high pressure remains wedged in place. We’ll get a fair bit of the day in rain-free as highs top out around 80° in the afternoon. As low pressure begins to organize offshore later Thursday, we’ll start to see a risk for a few evening showers.
Cool high pressure remains in control for Tuesday bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs well below mid-to-late-May normals. We’ll start the day in the low 60s before temperatures head to just about 80° in the afternoon — we’re normally looking at highs in the mid-80s at this point in the year. A stray shower could develop in the afternoon, but models show a pretty deep dry slot aloft that should preclude widespread precipitation.
Sunday’s forecast brings unsettled weather back to the area as a cold front presses south into the region. We start the day on the mild side, with lows bottoming out in the upper 60s — a few clicks above normal still for this point in May. Highs top out in the low 80s before showers and thunderstorms begin to make inroads. Showers could spread into the area as early as mid-morning, though the more likely onset will be from midday into early afternoon. Evening high-resolution guidance, coming in as I write this, has been trending a little drier, with the bulk of the heavier rain across the Savannah River in Georgia where dewpoints pool ahead of the cold front, but a lot will depend on the speed of the front and how it coincides with some energy aloft. Still, be ready to turn outdoor plans into indoor plans on short notice, and watch for pockets of heavy rain at times, too.
A cold front will slowly push south across the area overnight into Thursday, but it will not bring rain chances to a close. Moisture riding atop a wedge of high pressure will keep plentiful showers and maybe some thunderstorms in the forecast. Some spots may see an additional 1-2″ of rain on top of the rain that fell on Wednesday, and additional bouts of flooding may be possible as a result. The risk for severe weather will be lower given the widespread precipitation as well as the cooler temperatures, especially behind the front. Expect highs to only top out in the mid-70s with a breezy northeasterly wind.
We’ll need to monitor for the risk for moderate coastal flooding with the 8:08 PM high tide. The current forecast is for water levels to peak between 7.5-7.7′, which should be enough to close several roads in downtown Charleston. We will obviously want to watch very closely for the prospect of heavy rain in the area around this time as the coincidence of the two would be decidedly not great. Stay tuned to forecasts throughout the day, especially if you have downtown in your plans Thursday night.
A warm front will lift north of the area tomorrow, bringing in even warmer and more humid air for Tuesday. Much of the day should stay rain-free with relatively weak instability, though a stray shower or storm near the seabreeze can’t be discounted. If a storm or two does form, note that storm motions will once again bring them toward the coast, so be aware of that if you have a Tuesday beach trip planned. (Lucky duck.) Expect highs to top out in the upper 80s; I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 90° reading somewhere, either.
