Tomorrow’s forecast, personally speaking, gives me the ick. High pressure wedging southward and moisture running atop of it thanks to low pressure to our south will help generate a chilly, cloudy, and at times rainy day in the Lowcountry tomorrow. We are already starting to see cloud cover thicken tonight primarily in the mid- and upper levels as of this writing with rain encroaching into southeast Georgia. Expect showers to build as the day goes on, with maybe ¾-1″ of rain possible before it’s all said and done.
Rain falling into the wedge will keep temperatures quite chilly tomorrow. Lows in the low 40s will struggle to the upper 40s in the afternoon at best, with the immediate coast maybe touching 50°. The northeasterly breeze will make it feel even cooler at times, with wind chills in the upper 30s falling to the mid-30s by evening. Overall, Tuesday’s a good day for soup, chili, or whatever else comforts you when the weather outside is gray and rainy.
A warm front is lifting north across Georgia and South Carolina this evening, which will make for a warmer and more muggy day for Thursday ahead of a cold front. I’d anticipate that the forecast morning low of 57° will be set closer to midnight, followed by temperatures heading into the 60s by daybreak, topping out around 70° in the afternoon. Gusty winds will precede the front even outside of any thunderstorms — watch for gusts 30-35 MPH to potentially cause some havoc with Christmas decorations. We can expect a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two overnight into the morning ahead of the main frontal band.
The timing of the front and the extent of morning shower activity will act as a governor on any severe weather threat that could develop. Shear looks good, but instability is the question mark. Still, a few storms with gusty straight-line winds are possible, and there’s even the risk for a few of these storms to rotate. Keep an eye on the weather Thursday, particularly mid-morning through early afternoon, for any possible watches or warnings that might need to be issued.
We should be rid of the rain by evening — some of the faster guidance coming in this evening even has it out of here by mid-afternoon, with some sunshine breaking out before the day’s over — with temperatures falling into the 50s by 8 PM as cooler and drier air moves in behind the cold front.
We’ll find high pressure wedging back into the area on Tuesday as it passes to our north. Morning lows will bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30s across the metro, with mid-30s wind chills possible with the northeasterly wind. (You might want to bring pets and sensitive plants in tonight, just in case.) With little moisture in place, we’ll see mostly sunny skies, but the influx of cooler air will keep highs pinned to the mid-50s despite the sunshine — solid sweater weather if I do say so myself.
After tying a record high on Wednesday (81°!), we’ll see a cold front approach our area for Thursday. The associated cloud cover will help prevent us from getting back to record warmth, but we’ll still see highs peak in the mid-70s — perhaps higher if the front struggles to get further south. We should remain rain-free, however.
Showers will continue overnight into early Tuesday morning, but rain should be departing the area around sunrise. As high pressure to the north moves eastward, winds turn more southerly, pushing a front back north as a warm front. This will help temperatures start relatively mild for this point in the year (mid-50s) and finish downright warm (low-to-mid 70s) under partly cloudy skies. From here, we should see a few days of rain-free and unusually warm conditions, with temperatures running 10°+ above normal through Friday, when another front gets through and knocks temperatures back to a more standard September reality for the weekend.
Quiet weather continues for Tuesday before rain chances return for Wednesday as a cold front comes through. Temperatures on Tuesday start around normal in the mid-40s and will rebound nicely into the low 70s in the afternoon. Winds will be calmer, making that outdoor lunch a little easier, too. Overall, no complaints for Tuesday (weather-wise, anyway).
A storm system will approach the area overnight into Sunday, bringing another round of rain chances to the area primarily tomorrow morning into early afternoon.
We have a relatively mild Thanksgiving Day ahead as temperatures start in the mid-50s, about 10° above normal for this point in the year. Pesky cloud cover will remain pesky with the coastal trough lingering offshore, and a few showers will be possible before rain chances increase further after sunset as more moisture makes its way ashore. Overall, don’t be surprised to dodge a shower or two, but I suspect that a lot of us get a majority of Thanksgiving in rain-free.
Friday & the weekend: Periods of showers with a nice day in the middle
Shower chances will peak on Friday as a warm front moves by followed by a cold front moving in from the north overnight. Lows will approach 15° above normal with cloud cover and a moist airmass in place. The warm front will help temperatures reach the low 70s in the afternoon despite shower activity that’s expected to be in the area. (A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, either.) These showers will work their way out of here overnight with the aforementioned cold frontal passage.
Saturday should remain mostly dry with a mix of clouds and sun remaining in place. Temperatures will once again bottom out around 10°+ degrees above normal for another mild start followed by highs running right around 70° in the afternoon.
Showers return to the forecast Sunday as another cold front moves by the area. Once again, highs in the low 70s will follow a seasonably mild start to the day in the mid-50s. We should see showers begin to decrease later in the afternoon, paving the way for a cooler, drier, and sunnier Monday.
Coastal flooding remains a concern with morning high tides
This morning’s high tide peaked around 7.02′, which scraped minor coastal flooding thresholds. Expect additional rounds of minor to moderate salt water flooding around times of the morning’s high tide through Thanksgiving and the long weekend. High tide on Thanksgiving morning is forecast to peak around 7.5′, or moderate flood stage, around 7:43am. We should see similar results from Friday morning’s high tide which is predicted to peak around 8:34am. Minor coastal flooding is forecast for Saturday morning’s 9:29am high tide, while guidance indicates another round of flooding will be possible for Sunday morning’s 10:28am high tide. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
Cloud cover moving over the area tonight will make for a much warmer start to Tuesday than we saw on Monday, with lows only dipping into the mid to upper 40s. Wakeups will trend even warmer as we get into the rest of the week, with lows in the 50s becoming commonplace through the weekend.
Keep an eye out for a few showers during the day on Tuesday as a coastal trough develops. Otherwise, expect temperatures to top out in the low 60s under mostly cloudy skies.
There will be a risk for a little salt water encroaching on roads around Gadsden Creek (Hagood/Fishburne/Lockwood) around the 6:10am high tide, but more significant flooding is not expected as water levels are expected to peak just shy of the 7′ coastal flooding threshold in Charleston Harbor.
We’ve got more clouds and chilly weather in store for Thursday after a rather chilly and somewhat dreary day across the Lowcountry. The high temperatures of 68° at the airport and 70° downtown on Wednesday were set right around midnight as cooler air filtered into the area throughout the day. We should see another near-normal morning Thursday (lows mid-40s) before temperatures once again struggle into the mid-50s in the afternoon, well below the usually nice normal November temperature around 69°. There’s a decent chance we should see a little sun before the day is out, but overall, expect more in the way of gray. Silver lining: No precipitation is expected.
