A storm system will affect the area on Sunday, bringing us some showers at times and maybe even a few thunderstorms as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. We need the rain as moderate drought continues to envelop the area, and a half-inch to even an inch of rain will be possible. While that won’t put an end to the drought by any stretch, it will certainly help.

After a front gets through overnight, we’ll turn cooler for Thursday as temperatures head ever-so-slightly below normal. We’ll start Thursday in the upper 30s to around 40°, warming to the low 60s in the afternoon under predominantly sunny skies. While not quite the 70s, it’ll still be a solid mid-February day in the Lowcountry.

One could make the argument that Tuesday’s forecast might be the most pleasant in a few weeks as temperatures head well above normal as we end up on the north side of high pressure centered roughly around Tampa, FL. We’ll start the day around 40°, but west and southwest winds along with mostly sunny skies will help drive temperatures some 30° warmer during the day, with highs reaching the low 70s across much of the area (save for the immediate coast, where marine influences will keep temperatures capped to the upper 50s to around 60°). This should be our first 70° day since January 22, when the high reached 72°.

After some much-needed rain Wednesday, Thursday will be a much cooler day as a cold front moves by. Some showers may linger in the morning, but otherwise we can expect a mostly cloudy day with some peeks of sun from time to time. Expect temperatures to start in the mid-to-upper 30s, warming to just the mid-40s in the afternoon given the cloud cover and cooler air blowing in from the north.

So far today, snow totals have come in a little under what was first expected for this phase of the event thanks to some dry air intrusion, and this trend right now looks to continue. The upper low which has been driving our snowfall will continue to lumber across the area tonight, and there remains the possibility for some additional bursts of snow to develop, though those opportunities will become increasingly rare as the night wears on. Latest guidance suggests that any remaining snowfall should scour out by 4-5 AM as drier air gets pulled in behind the departing coastal low. With gusts increasing to potentially 30 MPH, especially near and at the coast, there will be a risk for some of that light, fluffy snow to blow around and impede visibilities. Honestly, just best to stay in tonight if you can help it.

Another chilly day lies ahead for Thursday as a dry cold front slides southward across the area, reinforcing the cooler airmass that’s been in place for much of this past week so far. Temperatures will start in the upper 20s to around 30° for yet another subfreezing start this week. We’ll see some clouds at times, with greater cloud cover expected as we get into the evening, but otherwise there should be plenty of sunshine. Despite the sun, though, the reinforcing shot of cooler air keeps highs pinned to the upper 40s to around 50°.

Tuesday will get off to a very cold start across the area as Arctic air continues to spill in, sending air temperatures to the low 20s and maybe even some upper teens further inland. Northerly winds around 5-10 MPH will make it feel closer to the low-to-mid-teens in the morning, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory that will run until 9am. Bundle up carefully and with plenty of layers for heading out to work or school as this is bitter cold for this part of the world. With cold air continuing to blow in, highs on Tuesday only peak in the low-to-mid-40s despite plenty of sunshine. This is well below normal for late January — climatological average high temperatures are around 61° at this point in the still-young year. Stay warm!

Cooler air will continue to overspread the area tonight, and warm air overrunning the shallow layer of cold air could help to generate some freezing rain or drizzle generally inland of 17-A overnight into tomorrow morning. Folks in inland Berkeley and Dorchester counties remain under a Winter Weather Advisory until 1PM Sunday for this threat. The main concerns will be a glaze of ice on elevated surfaces, perhaps including bridges and overpasses. It continues to appear that we should stay liquid in Charleston County, especially near the coast, so no Ravalanche redux is expected this go-around. As NWS put it in a briefing call this evening, this is a nuisance event rather than a more impactful event.

Any ice that does form will melt during the day as we should see temperatures creep above freezing across much of the area. A more pronounced warming is likely to take place as a warm front lifts northward across the area later Sunday, though it remains to be seen just how far north the warm front can erode the strong wedge of high pressure that’ll be in place. It’s possible that some of us further inland could be stuck in the 30s while we warm to near 60° near the coast in the afternoon and evening. From there. a band of showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms will sweep through the area later Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Then, a cold front sweeps through the area by daybreak Monday, and sets the stage for a very cold final week of January.

Thursday looks like the nicest day we’ll have for a little while before the well-advertised winter storm system impacts the South, followed by a round of Arctic air to kick off next week. Temperatures Wednesday start in the low to mid-40s — a marked increase from the low of 26° at the airport this morning — before warming to the upper 60s to perhaps even around 70° under mostly sunny skies. Enjoy this — as mentioned, things will start getting stormy and chilly by Saturday.

A cold front will come through early Thursday, ushering in another round of very cold and dry air to the area which may elevate fire danger during the day. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 30s with a few clouds around. Those clouds will largely scour out as the drier air punches in, and it will punch in — expect winds around 10-15 MPH with higher gusts at times. The influx of cold air will limit highs to the upper 40s despite full sunshine, and with the wind, it’ll feel even cooler than that. This will lead to a hard freeze overnight Thursday into Friday morning, so you’ll want to make sure that pets, plants, pipes, and people are protected as temperatures plummet into the low 20s by Friday morning.