After what turned out to be a rather raucous and busy Tuesday in the weather department, we look to potentially have additional strong to severe storms develop on Wednesday as a warm front lifts northward across the area and mid-level energy comes up from the Gulf of Mexico. Instability should once again develop nicely, and with the assist from the pocket of energy aloft, there’s another shot at organized thunderstorms across the area. Severe weather should not be as widespread as it was today, but there will be the risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a tornado in the strongest storms. We could see a smaller but still organized line of thunderstorms come out of Georgia and move through the area in the 8-10 PM timeframe, so we’ll want to watch model trends on that carefully.
Outside of thunderstorms, it’ll be another warm and muggy day in the warm sector. Lows will bottom out just in the mid-60s, while highs should peak in the low 80s before thunderstorms develop.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue overnight into Thursday morning before a cold front sweeps this mess offshore, setting us up for a pleasant — if not a touch chilly! — Friday and the weekend.
A vigorous complex of showers and thunderstorms will traverse the Southeast tomorrow, arriving here in the Lowcountry around early evening with a risk of damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.
Tuesday’s severe weather potential has a little different feel in that there’s a good chance more instability will be available ahead of the line, as it should be coming through right in that sweet spot time of 5-10 PM or so. (Stay tuned for inevitable tweaks to exact timings as the storm system gets underway.) Wind shear is plentiful, on the order of 50-60 knots, and if thunderstorm updrafts can take advantage of instability rooted in the surface, there will be plenty of available energy for strong to severe thunderstorms. (More on this in a sec, though.) Despite expected cloud cover, the heat pump is on, and warm and moist air will flow into the area readily during the day, allowing for highs near 80°. Winds outside of thunderstorms will once again be gusty as well, with gusts 30+ MPH not out of the question particularly on elevated surfaces.
Damaging straight-line wind gusts are certainly the main concern, with probabilities high enough to drive an Enhanced (level 3 out of 5) risk in tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. However, tornadoes will be possible with any discrete storms as well as embedded within a squall line (if that ends up being the storm mode).
There are possible failure modes here, though. Forecast soundings from this evening’s models do show some capping trying to hold across the Charleston metro with an inversion a few thousand feet up and dry air entrainment trying to put a damper on an even more unstable environment. This could act as a governor on a more substantially widespread severe threat. We can’t bank on this, though, especially as wind shear remains strong enough to keep thunderstorm updrafts healthy.
Bottom line: Be ready for possible watches and warnings tomorrow. Keep weather radios in the alerting position and phones charged. Know what you’ll do if a warning is issued for your area. If you live in a mobile home, be thinking carefully about where you’ll go if severe weather threatens. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and mobile homes can be a tragic mix. A site-built structure will give you more protection in situations like these.
With any luck, we’ll see another round of storms fizzle out as it reaches Charleston. But if that doesn’t happen, you’ll be glad you were prepared.
After another extraordinarily windy day yesterday — certainly seems to be quite the trend in 2022 — April begins with generally quieter weather as a cold front slips offshore and dry high pressure builds in. Cloud cover will decrease throughout the day, and temperatures will warm into the mid-70s, making for a rather pleasant day of weather across the Lowcountry. Winds will remain elevated today in the wake of the front, but will decrease as time goes on, and will certainly be nothing like the gusts we saw yesterday, which consistently peaked over 40 MPH and nearly touched 70 MPH on the Don Holt Bridge.
All looks good for the Bridge Run Saturday morning, and overall expect a nice weekend of weather aside from a slight shower chance late Saturday. More details later today.
Thursday will turn stormy as a weakening squall line, which has produced a fair bit of severe weather across the Mid-South and central Gulf Coast states, gets into the area during the day Thursday. While widespread severe weather doesn’t look terribly likely thanks to a dearth of instability, the wind fields are such that thunderstorms might not need much in the way of vertical growth to generate some damaging straight-line winds. Indeed, outside of thunderstorms, gusts approaching 40 MPH will certainly be possible, especially on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses. Low-level wind shear could briefly be supportive of a tornado, as well, but that risk is very low.
Expect showers possibly as early as 9-10am, with the best chance of rain and thunderstorms coming in the afternoon and early evening hours. Rain gear all day is a good call, but it’s not likely that any one spot will see rain all day, either.
Before rainfall arrives, temperatures will climb into the mid-to-upper 70s as warm air continues to pump into the area. Lows likely won’t drop below the mid-60s in most spots given the existing warm and moist airmass.
The good news is that this gets out of here relatively quickly, leaving nice and spring-like weather behind for Friday continuing into the Bridge Run on Saturday. The forecast for the run remains on track, with comfortable running temperatures and a light northeast breeze to maybe give you a little “oomph” on the Ravenel. (Lord knows I would need all the help I can get!)
High pressure remains in control on Tuesday as it builds southward and down the East Coast. With the high centered to the north, winds will shift around more easterly and come in off the ocean. As a result, high temperatures will run cooler tomorrow thanks to the onshore flow as well as the loss of the downslope component to the wind that we get when it blows out of the northwest. Relative humidity values will be higher (though not uncomfortably so), making for much less fire danger for tomorrow and for the rest of the week.
Tuesday will be the last day of below-normal temperatures; a warm front will lift north of the area on Wednesday, sending temperatures back well into the 70s. Our next rain chance still looks timed for sometime Thursday afternoon and evening, all depending on the forward progress of a cold front. Severe weather appears quite unlikely at this juncture, but we’ll continue to keep an eye out for changes. Regardless of any severe storms, Thursday looks to be a rather windy day, with gusty winds continuing into Friday.
Bridge Runners, so far so good for the race, rain-wise, but we’ll be keeping a close eye on the potential for some storms at times this weekend. Stay tuned as the forecast gets further and further fine-tuning.
Much-needed rain will continue to fall for a good bit of today across the Charleston metro as a cold front slides eastward across the state. Said front will help to keep temperatures pretty steady-state throughout the day — we aren’t too far off from the NWS forecast high as of this writing (9am Thursday). No severe weather is expected, but we may yet hear a few more rumbles of thunder.
Rain will gradually taper off as we get into tonight, but showers may linger into early Friday morning. If you’ve got outdoor plans this evening, you may yet want to execute the indoor plan just to keep folks dry.
An unsettled period begins on Wednesday as our next storm system approaches the area. This storm system could aid in producing a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon.
A warm front will cross the area overnight, and as a result, Wednesday starts out with lows bottoming out just around 60° around the area. The Gulf will be open for business with a plume of warm, moist air overspreading the Carolinas ahead of a cold front. This should keep a fair bit of cloud cover around, but despite this, temperatures could still approach 80° in the afternoon, particularly if we get some peeks of sun mixed in during the day.
The morning appears to be dry, but it isn’t out of the question to see some showers try to get going ahead of the main event. With that in mind, though, the vast majority of guidance members are keeping things dry until the afternoon. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms could arrive in the form of a squall line in the evening. Instability should be modest at best, but ample wind shear could be enough to produce a few damaging wind gusts if storms can stay organized. Hail and even a tornado can’t be ruled out, either. As usual for our neck of the woods, the available instability will modulate the severe threat. Most of you shouldn’t see any severe weather tomorrow, but in case it does threaten, you’ll want to know about it: have reliable ways to hear watches and warnings, and be ready to move to a safe place if a warning is issued for your location.
Rain should continue well into Thursday as the front and moisture hangs around before finally moving away early Friday. Regardless of any severe weather, the rain will be quite nice to wash away some pollen and help chip away at the drought. The reward will be pretty sweet, too: a gorgeous Friday and the weekend, with fair weather continuing well into the following work week.
High pressure will continue to slip offshore overnight into Tuesday, allowing warmer and a little more humid air to keep working its way into the area. We stay rain-free on Tuesday, though, despite an increase in cloud cover. Highs top out in the mid-70s. Perhaps it won’t be the most picturesque day like we’ve had over the past couple days, but it will certainly be another decently nice day across the area.
Attention then turns to Wednesday, where there remains a risk for some severe storms that’s largely conditional on the timing of a cold front coming through the area. We’ll have the shear in place, but once again the question is instability and whether it will be available by the time forcing for ascent arrives. If the front gets closer earlier in the day, that could provide the necessary trigger for thunderstorms to develop and take advantage of that energy (though the amount of energy that would be available doesn’t look overly impressive). If it’s later in the day, though, we’ll see that instability begin to wane; as a result, the severe threat could be tempered somewhat. We should get some more clarity on the timing issues tomorrow; for now, prepare for a wet Wednesday with the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Hail, high winds, and a tornado are all on the table if in fact storms can get cranking, but as we know from recent days, that can be a big if. Stay tuned…
After a somewhat confounding weather day on Saturday, Sunday’s forecast is much higher confidence with high pressure building in behind a cold front that will swing through overnight. This’ll cool things off nicely, with highs topping out around 70° under sunny skies and low humidity to boot. It’ll be a nice day to get out for a walk or get some yard work done. This will kick off a stretch of a couple days of quiet weather before our next storm system arrives by mid-week, bringing us another shot at showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the work week. (We still can very much use the rain.)
We’ve gotten off to a fairly benign start here in the Lowcountry, but that may change later today as a cold front approaches. Temperatures as of this writing are in the low 70s already with dewpoints in the low to mid-60s, pretty ripe for this time of year. Cloud cover has ticked up somewhat in part due to anvil blow-off from some thunderstorms already firing in southeast Georgia. Winds have also ticked up some, with a gust to 23 MPH recorded at the airport as of the 10am observation.
High temperatures across the Charleston metro should top out in the mid-to-upper 70s this afternoon before the cold front gets closer to the area. It’s this surface feature, currently moving across Georgia and into upstate South Carolina, which should provide the needed lift to allow for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Wind shear and instability will not be lacking, and with some capping in place limiting more widespread development to start, storms could initially start off as supercells, increasing the severe weather threat. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging straight-line wind gusts and large hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, particularly where storms interact with the seabreeze, which is forecast to be near the coast for much of the day. Given strong SW winds keeping the seabreeze pinned to the coast, it is unlikely that cooler waters will have a significant impact on storm strength.
Given the initially isolated nature of these thunderstorms and the timing of the cap breaking, it’s going to be very tough to pinpoint who exactly will see storms and when. General thinking, according to NWS, is that the greatest risk of thunderstorms will generally run between 3-9 PM. Trying to pin down too much more detail may be foolhardy without clairvoyance beyond what the science can provide.
Today’s advice is familiar: Stay close to reliable, redundant weather warning sources, one of which should not be your smartphone. NOAA Weather Radio and broadcast stations are two great ways to fulfill this recommendation. Not everyone will see severe weather today — perhaps, deity of your choice willing, none of us will! — but if it does threaten your location, you’ll want to be prepared to receive that warning and take action on it by having a safe space indoors, away from windows.
