After an absolute deluge last night, with some weather stations in the Summerville, Ladson, and Hanahan areas reporting upwards of 5-8+” of rain and reports of numerous roads and even some properties seeing flooding, we will continue with the risk for showers and thunderstorms for today into the weekend. Temperatures will be held into the mid-80s given cloud cover and nearby thunderstorm activity, which will be possible pretty much at any point throughout the day but particularly in the afternoon hours. It’s worth noting that it won’t rain all the time, either. We’ll undoubtedly see some peeks of sunshine intertwined in. When it does rain, though, it could be quite heavy, which isn’t good news considering how waterlogged many of us have become in this wet pattern over the past couple weeks. (In fact, the drought has been eliminated in the Charleston metro area.) The main weather hazard to watch will be flooding, but there will also be a low-end risk each day for an isolated wet microburst producing damaging wind gusts. Stay tuned to forecast updates throughout the weekend as the specific details of where it will rain exactly when are difficult to fully pin down until a few hours out.
Another front will be approaching the area on Thursday, and this will bring a renewed round of heavy showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours, one or two of which could be on the strong to severe side with damaging wind gusts. The main concern, though, will be the potential for very heavy rain. We’ve gotten pretty waterlogged in the past few weeks, and continued heavy rain on top of it will lend itself to the risk of some flooding.
It will be another sauna day, with highs topping out around 90° and heat indices rising into the low 100s thanks to the continued stifling humidity that’s blanketed our neck of the woods for the better part of July. The heat and humidity should help fuel-wise for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
As ridging aloft breaks down and retrogrades westward, our weather will turn much more unsettled heading into Friday and the weekend. Storms will be likely especially each afternoon and evening, with Sunday possibly looking particularly stormy with a surface front pushing through the area. Heavy rain will once again be quite possible, as precipitable water values remain 2″+ throughout the period — a lot of water to wring out of the atmospheric column, to be sure. Excessive rainfall will be possible in the strongest storms. There will also continue to be a risk for sporadic severe weather in the form of damaging straight-line wind gusts.
Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will still head right into the upper 80s to low 90s. With a stiflingly humid airmass continuing in place, heat indices will once again soar well into the 100s, with max heat indices around 105° on Friday and 108° on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will keep air temperatures from getting too much further out of hand, thankfully, but this is plenty of heat as is. Remember to take frequent breaks in the shade if you’re outside during these hot periods.
The good news is that all this rain continues to erode the drought — much of the Tri-County area was in moderate drought on last week’s Drought Monitor, but today’s downgrades the area (particularly around the Charleston metro) to Abnormally Dry. The airport is still running about 4.62″ behind normal for this point in the year, but we should hopefully continue to dent that deficit this weekend.
After some of us got a day to dry out, showers and thunderstorms look to resume possibly as early as late tonight as a disturbance aloft possibly spawns a little surface low in southeast Georgia. This possible low, if not the associated surface trough, will help to keep numerous showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday and into Saturday as well. We could see storms ongoing Friday morning for the commute, so be ready to take it a little slower on the roads. Heavy rain and lightning will be the primary issues from any thunderstorms. The atmosphere remains juiced with plenty of moisture: precipitable water values (the amount of water you can wring out from a column of air) will continue to run very close to 2″. This moisture combined with ample instability will likely lead to some pockets of very heavy rain rates and a risk of minor flooding to go along with it. Also, it’s worth noting that high tide will peak around 10:17 AM in Charleston Harbor. Guidance does show some heavy downpours coming ashore ahead of and around this time, which could enhance the flood threat in coastal communities including downtown Charleston. With the prevalent storms and cloud cover, highs should top out in the mid-80s at best. It’ll be quite humid, though, and so heat indices could run up toward 90° especially if some sun peeks out.
Saturday looks like it could get off to a similar start as broad surface low pressure may be moving through the area during the morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms could then fire in the afternoon in the wake of the low depending on how well the seabreeze ultimately develops. Temperatures should stay capped in the mid-80s once again, owing to the unsettled weather that’s expected. Something tells me the details around Saturday will be refined some more, too, so stay tuned.
Sunday will be a little more summer-like in nature with more widely scattered thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound from previous days into the mid-to-upper 80s.
After record rainfall today — 1.87″ of rain at the airport breaks the record of 1.54″ set in 2000, while stations in West Ashley picked up 2.5-3″ — more storms are on the horizon for the next few days as we remain within a very humid airmass with plenty of upper-air and surface features to help spur on shower and thunderstorm development.
Thursday looks to go similarly to the past couple days, though there may not be quite as much coverage as we’ve seen thus far this week. We could see showers and storms forming early in the day near the coast, with storms becoming scattered to numerous while translating inland with the seabreeze throughout the afternoon. With precipitable water values near 2″, we once again could see pockets of very heavy rainfall. The past couple days have seen a couple 4″ bullseyes, and I can imagine that will be the case somewhere again tomorrow. The severe weather risk remains very low given the very saturated atmosphere, but lightning and isolated bouts of excessive rainfall will make any thunderstorm dangerous. High temperatures will remain suppressed in the mid-80s, though the humidity will still be rather swampy.
A front will sag southward across the area on Friday, bringing with it some cooler temperatures and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. We’ll lop about 6-8° off today’s observed high of 96° tomorrow as winds turn a little more onshore as the front gets by. Only a few of us will see storms tomorrow, so keep the watering gear on standby as you’ll probably need it for a few more days.
Ridging aloft will continue to build into the area for the weekend, but east to northeast winds at the surface will help keep temperatures and humidity (to an extent) in check. Expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90° each afternoon with dewpoints running in the upper 60s, yielding heat indices in the low 90s. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule with the somewhat drier atmosphere and sinking air keeping updrafts in check. While the air won’t feel quite as nice as last weekend, it’ll still be a good couple beach days. Pack the sunscreen!
Thursday will be the hottest day this week as air temperatures return to the mid-to-upper 90s across the Lowcountry in the afternoon. Unfortunately, dewpoints will also have recovered back into the 70s, and that could put us close to heat advisory territory for Thursday afternoon as heat indices could approach 105°. There will, however, be a shot at some isolated thunderstorms later in the afternoon into the evening hours as the seabreeze makes its move inland. Lightning and gusty winds will be the primary concern from any thunderstorm that forms, but so far widespread severe weather doesn’t look likely.
We have another potentially boy-band-hot (98°) day on tap for Friday as temperatures soar ahead of a cold front. Expect heat indices to once again approach 110°, with a heat advisory a near-certainty as a result. Said heat and humidity will translate to plenty of thunderstorm fuel for potential strong to severe thunderstorms in the evening hours ahead of the front. There’s still model disagreement about exactly when and where thunderstorms will fire, but if and when they do, a few will be capable of damaging wind gusts. You’ll want the weather radio nearby tomorrow evening, especially if you are out and about.
The front gets through late Friday into early Saturday, shutting off rain chances and even helping to dehumidify us a touch. Saturday will still be hot, with air temperatures reaching the mid-90s, but dewpoints in the upper 60s as opposed to the mid-70s will keep heat indices generally below 100°. Sunday looks even better — honestly a pretty fantastic day to get outdoors, particularly in mid-June — with a punch of cooler and drier air keeping air temperatures to the mid-80s for much of the area. The respite will be short-lived, though, as temperatures soar once again by the middle of next week, possibly flirting with 100° on Wednesday.
Thursday will run a little cooler — 91° with a heat index of 94° certainly qualifies — as onshore flow behind a backdoor cold front gives us a little break before the heat picks back up on Friday. With the slightly cooler weather comes a somewhat more stable atmosphere, which will keep the risk for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to a bare minimum. All in all, should be a fairly decent day for an outdoor dinner. (Might still be a bit much for eating lunch outside, though.)
Friday and the weekend will remain on the warm side, with the best chance at showers and thunderstorms coming on Saturday before tapering off on Sunday.
We’ll be the beneficiary of some drier air on Friday, which should help keep thunderstorms to a minimum and put a little governor on the humidity. This will be short-lived, though, as the front that helps to usher in this drier air lifts back north of the area, putting us back in the soup on Saturday. It looks like showers and thunderstorms will begin to break out by mid-morning and continue well into the evening hours. Exact placement of storms will be driven by where storms initially fire and the subsequent propagation of outflow boundaries and the seabreeze. The trough driving some of this unsettled weather begins to lift north on Sunday, leaving us with generally standard chances of thunderstorms on the seabreeze in the afternoon.
Overall, expect highs around 90° each day ahead of thunderstorms, with heat indices generally in the mid-90s. This’ll feel cool compared to what’s coming down the pike for next week — it looks like we might have a few days of near-heat advisory conditions (heat indices 105°+) with little in the way of storms to help cool things off at least temporarily. We’ll want to watch trends closely for this potentially sweltering heat!
