Another round of heavy rain appears to be in the cards for Friday as a front continues to move southward into the very muggy and moist airmass that continues to linger over our neck of the woods. Temperatures start in the mid-70s once again, only warming to the upper 80s thanks to cloud cover and storms which should get going by mid-morning as the seabreeze develops. As of this writing, there is no new Flood Watch, but one could be issued by the time some of you read this in the morning. It won’t rain all day in any one location — this rarely happens in the summer — but where it rains, a lot could fall atop increasingly saturated ground. Stay tuned for possible Flood Advisories during the day Friday.
One more round of storms appears likely on Saturday as the front moves by, with more heavy rain potentially in the cards. Once again, temperatures will be suppressed a bit by the clouds and rain, with highs peaking in the upper 80s. Sunday is emerging as the pick day of the weekend, as the front will be south of here with a little bit of drier air building in featuring mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints, which is quite a contrast from the mid-70s dewpoints that typically characterize summer around here. Cloud cover should be minimal, though a stray afternoon storm can’t be totally ruled out. With the sun back out, expect highs to peak in the low 90s, but the drier air means lows will get to fall a bit, with low 70s expected away from the coast.
More active weather is expected Thursday as a stalled front combines with a favorable upper-air configuration and plenty of available moisture for numerous showers and thunderstorms. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, be ready for downpours to affect your day. We could see showers and storms fire overnight near the coast, in fact, and those could impact the morning commute, while guidance continues to paint solid afternoon thunderstorm chances as well.
This at least helps drives temperatures down a touch: while the low of 77° is still quite balmy, highs top out in the low 90s at best with heat indices running lower than they have on previous days. (A meteorological Pyrrhic victory, perhaps, but so it goes in late July.)
We’ve got a couple fairly active weather days ahead as low pressure nudges a front back inland across the area starting Friday. Then, heat really starts to build in on Sunday, with a stretch of heat indices well into Advisory territory expected to last several days.
Guidance suggests we could get off to an early start to spotty showers and thunderstorms on Friday before coverage becomes more widespread as the seabreeze kicks in later in the day. Temperatures start in the upper 70s to low 80s, warmest near the coast, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon in-between storms. Factor in dewpoints in the mid-70s and it’ll feel closer to the low 100s. Many of us should see some decent rain; an inch of rain looks to be a good bet in many spots, with some spots receiving upwards of 2″ (and maybe even a little more where locally heavy rainfall occurs). Severe weather is not expected, but minor flooding could occur where storms train. As the sun heads down, expect coverage to decrease.
Storms will continue into Saturday as energy aloft and low pressure at the surface affect the area for one more day. They’ll be a little more scattered in nature, though many of us could see some measurable rainfall once again. After another upper 70s to low 80s start, temperatures head back into the mid-90s in the afternoon with some spots flirting with Heat Advisory conditions (heat indices 108°+) in between storms.
Sunday will turn even hotter, with temperatures heading into the upper 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should venture into Heat Advisory territory, with fewer storms to cool some of us off as the pattern shifts back to a more traditional summertime setup with the Bermuda high to our east and the seabreeze pushing inland to kick off showers and storms. You’ll want to make sure you’re taking heat precautions if you find yourself out and about during the height of the afternoon. The hot temperatures look to stick around into at least the first part of next week, too, with heat indices perhaps approaching 110° at times with scattered afternoon storms to cool a few of us off.
A stalling front will briefly usher in slightly drier air on Thursday, helping to keep heat indices below heat advisory levels, but it’ll still be plenty warm with air temperatures peaking in the mid-90s and heat indices in the mid-100s expected. We should still see a few showers and thunderstorms pop in the afternoon, but like Wednesday, coverage should be reasonably limited.
The Fourth of July should be a generally quiet weather day across the area, featuring partly cloudy skies and generally near-normal temperatures (read: still fairly hot). We start the day in the mid-70s and will warm to the low-to-mid-90s away from the coast, which looks to run more into the upper 80s to around 90°. The heat index will run around 100° as dewpoints remain a touch lower than they have been (generally low 70s). You’ll want the sunscreen with the UV index expected to run close to 10 at the height of the afternoon. Ridging aloft will keep a lid on any thunderstorm activity, removing Mother Nature’s fireworks from the equation this go-around.
After some much-needed rainfall Thursday, we’ve got a few more shots at additional rain as we close out the month. In fact, the thunderstorm activity Thursday night will likely help keep temperatures and dewpoints down a little heading into Friday, with heat indices “only” in the low-to-mid-100s for many of us before thunderstorms fire in the afternoon. The early return from the late Thursday evening model runs suggests less storm coverage Friday than we saw Thursday, but some of us will still see another round of needed rain.
The active summertime pattern stays in place for Saturday into Sunday as well, with air temperatures in the low 90s combining with increasing dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to prompt Heat Advisory-level conditions once again each afternoon before thunderstorms fire. Scattered coverage continues to be expected, with some of us getting luckier than others as far as rainfall goes. Some of the rain could be quite heavy at times, though, with minor flooding a possibility if it sets up in the more vulnerable locations. And as always, you can’t rule out a stronger or even marginally severe thunderstorm in the summertime; while there isn’t much to hang your hat on as far as organized storms, boundary and cell collisions can help bring down some strong wind gusts.
The meteorological status quo continues on Thursday: Heat, humidity, and a few storms in the afternoon. Temperatures will be fairly heinous on Thursday, with lows barely dipping below 80° away from the warmer coastline and highs getting into the mid-to-upper 90s in the afternoon. Mix in dewpoints in the mid-70s, and that’ll yield another day of dangerous heat indices in the 107-110° range. I’d be ready for yet another Heat Advisory to be issued for tomorrow.
A front sinking southward into the area combined with the usual seabreeze influence will help improve shower and thunderstorm chances for more of us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible, and some gusty winds will be possible in any thunderstorm as well. A stray Severe Thunderstorm Warning certainly is in the cards, but widespread severe weather isn’t expected.
Humid days are here again: tropical moisture associated with a disturbance (which might become a tropical depression before coming ashore in Georgia tomorrow) will overspread the area, with showers and a few thunderstorms expected for a fair bit of the day as a result. It won’t rain all day at any one location — the rain will generally be off and on and be moving fairly quickly — so generally expect a half-inch of rain in most spots. A few locations could see locally heavier rainfall in the wetter storms. Thankfully, severe weather and flooding don’t appear to be major issues this go-around. Temperatures start in the low 70s, warming to the upper 80s between storms. It’ll be a muggy day as dewpoints surge into the low 70s by morning, with heat indices in the mid-90s expected.
High pressure gets into a typical summertime configuration starting Saturday, and we’ll definitely be feeling it as lows bottom out only in the mid-70s. The 90s return Saturday afternoon and will have some staying power through the weekend and well into next week, too. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze, with locally heavy rain possible but severe weather generally not expected. Just be ready to bring outdoor activities inside if a thunderstorm approaches your location.
Thursday looks to remain mostly quiet over the area, though a few showers will be possible near the coast once again during the morning as showers within onshore flow reach land and dissipate in drier air. We start the day around 70° and warm to the upper 80s in the afternoon, much like the past few days. If you’ve been enjoying the somewhat lower-humidity mornings that we’ve had lately, enjoy this tomorrow morning because we’re shifting back into more traditional mid-to-late-June dewpoints starting Friday.
Temperatures climb fairly sharply before dropping off back toward normal as we get into Friday and the weekend. Friday will start around 70°, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies as ridging builds aloft. We make a run toward the Lachey mark on Saturday as highs top out near 98° away from the coast. Dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to heat indices approaching 104° or so during the height of the afternoon, so be sure that you’re getting enough hydration and taking breaks if you’re going to spend time outdoors. Temperatures back off a bit for Sunday as the wind turns more onshore, but will still be plenty of warm with highs around 90°.
We’ll stay rain-free Friday, but the standard afternoon chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms re-enters the weather picture on Saturday into Sunday as another front stalls out nearby. Overall, though, we should see more sunshine than not. Try to stay cool!
