Category 4 Hurricane Helene continues to push toward a landfall in Florida this evening, intensifying rapidly as it does so. Here at home in the Lowcountry, we have been dealing with a fair bit of rain for much of the day, though the severe weather to this point has avoided the Tri-County. That may run out soon, though, as more rain bands develop and move ashore as we get into tonight and the overnight hours.

A potentially busy weather day awaits as Hurricane Helene strengthens again on approach to landfall late tonight on the Big Bend of Florida. A Tornado Watch is now in effect until at least 9PM, though I expect this to be extended overnight, as conditions continue to improve for the development of tornadoes. There has already been one tornado warning this morning in Beaufort County, likely with more to come. Tornadoes are the main concern with Helene, though heavy rain and gusty winds could still cause flooding and power outage issues.

Hurricane Helene’s outer fringes will begin to affect the area on Thursday, with impacts peaking Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and a risk for tornadoes are the main concerns. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lowcountry, including the entirety of the Charleston Tri-County area.

Debby made landfall this morning along the Big Bend of Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. It’s since fallen back to being a tropical storm with max winds now at 50 MPH, but its forward speed has been slowing as steering currents collapse around it. This is setting the stage for the well-advertised prolonged deluge and flash flood threat that will unfold particularly over the next couple days.

We will get the first week of July off to a very soggy start as a front stalls in the area, bringing a risk for numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday evening (more on that shortly). While rain chances back off a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday as the front meanders and weakens, we will get at least a brief break from the advisory-level heat that punctuated the end of June. Rain will keep highs to the upper 80s on Monday, while onshore flow Tuesday helps to keep highs tamped down to the mid-80s. Warming begins again Wednesday, though, with upper 80s yielding to mid-90s on the Fourth of July. We’re in the upper 90s for Friday and the weekend with standard afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances expected.

After one round of thunderstorms moved through Wednesday, a second round of unsettled weather, featuring potentially flooding rains in the morning and severe thunderstorms in the afternoon, lies ahead on Saturday.

The upcoming week will get off to a fairly stormy start on Monday, but we’ll see things calm down and cool off a little bit for a few days before another storm system affects the area over the weekend.

A fairly lousy and potentially high-impact weather day lies ahead for Sunday as a strengthening nor’easter moves along the coast. Wind and rain will begin to pick up early Sunday morning, with gusts near 45 MPH at times (and potentially even higher on bridges and overpasses). Rainfall could turn out to be quite significant, especially within any thunderstorms that can fire; before it’s over, many of us could see 3-5″ of rain with even higher amounts in some spots. Flooding is increasingly a concern as a result, especially with the potential for an 8′ water level around the 11:17am high tide coinciding with continued heavy rain. Finally, if surface-based instability can develop, a severe thunderstorm or two with locally damaging wind gusts and maybe even a tornado could be possible. All this to say that Sunday’s a good “stay inside” day.

Standard July warmth and mugginess will continue on Sunday. We’ll start the day in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies, and we should get the first part of the day in rain-free. From there, we’ll start to see showers and thunderstorms develop by mid-afternoon and make their way into the area from the west and southwest throughout the rest of the evening. The strongest storms could produce strong wind gusts, while heavy rain and frequent lightning will be more widespread concerns. Be ready to bring outdoor activities inside if thunderstorms approach.

We open the week with the risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms, and get much warmer thereafter as we say goodbye to June and welcome in July, with the first heat advisories of the season possible by the weekend.