High pressure will wedge southward into the area over the next couple days before being shoved out of the way by Tropical Storm Isaias as it makes landfall on the Gulf Coast on Saturday, bringing about a very unsettled weekend with heavy rain, flooding, and possibly some severe weather.

Drier air will continue to push into the area overnight into Tuesday, but it won’t be enough to totally erode the cloud deck as some low-level moisture will remain trapped due to a wedge of high pressure building in from the north. We should see some breaks in the clouds, but otherwise, expect another mostly cloudy day across the area. We’ll start in the mid-50s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon (though that may be generous if cloud cover remains more stout). Of greater concern will be winds, especially the closer you get to the coast. Gusts will range from 20-25 MPH inland to 35-40 MPH at the coast. It could be a tricky drive over the bridges at times, so be alert to that. There’s not a formal Wind Advisory yet, but that may yet come with the overnight forecast update from NWS.

Warmer-than-normal temperatures will continue for the rest of the work week, with rain chances starting to tick up as we get toward Friday and the weekend.

High pressure wedging in from the northeast made for a much cooler day on Wednesday — the high only reached 77°, the coolest high since 76° on May 31 — and we’ll keep that going into Thursday. Winds kick up a bit more Thursday as low pressure begins to spin up offshore, tightening the pressure gradient across the area. There could be some showers within the wedge at any point during the day, but nothing too out of control by any stretch. The main hazards will be a risk for coastal flooding at times of high tide. The 6:40am high tide could touch 7′ MLLW, producing some minor flooding in the most vulnerable locations. The evening high tide, which peaks around 7:10 PM, will run more than a half-foot higher, with moderate coastal flooding expected. Be ready for road closures downtown during the second half of the commute.

Low pressure aloft will drift northward into our neck of the woods on Tuesday, which should help kick up a little more in the way of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. It’ll be another warm and muggy start, with lows in the low to mid-70s across the area to start the day. Some guidance suggests storms appear possible near the coast to start the day, moving inland with time as the seabreeze pushes inland. The main concerns will be the potential for isolated flooding due to heavy rain from slow-moving storms and the risk for storms to produce strong wind gusts.

An upper low stalling out over Florida combined with an approaching (then stalling) front will help turn things a little more unsettled this weekend.

Another warm mid-September day lies ahead for Thursday as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature at the surface and aloft. We’ll get off to another pleasant start with lows in the upper 60s warming to the upper 80s in the afternoon with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s away from the coast, where dewpoints will settle in the 70-72° range. Dry air in the atmospheric column will make for mostly sunny skies, with just a few passing clouds expected.

Drier air courtesy of high pressure wedging southwestward across the area will characterize the rest of the work week, bringing slightly more comfortable dewpoints to the area and seasonable temperatures for mid-September.

A front coming through on Tuesday will knock temperatures back from the record levels of the past two days, bringing some breezy conditions and maybe some coastal flooding in the process. We start the day in similar fashion to the past couple days, with lows in the mid-70s expected. High pressure building south will swing winds around to the east and northeast in the morning, turning things gusty in the process (especially at the coast). This wind may also help drive tidal departures higher, perhaps causing some minor coastal flooding with the midday high tide. Widespread flooding issues are not expected, though. We will see dewpoints begin to drop during the afternoon with highs peaking just in the upper 80s, right around mid-September normals.

A cold front will stall out to our north, keeping warm and muggy conditions in place with disturbances bringing about showers and thunderstorms each day, especially Saturday.