Despite our freezing start — temperatures dropped into the upper 20s briefly this morning at the airport — we will recover nicely into the low 60s this afternoon with a good mix of sun and clouds.

The weekend: Unsettled at times

The weekend’s forecast is going to be a little tricky if you’re looking at it for any precision when it comes to rainfall and temperatures. (I just completed a forecast package for my friends at the Sunday Brunch Farmers Market — some tough calls in this one!)

Here’s what we know:

• Temperatures will warm into the 60s both days this weekend.
• There’s going to be showers in the area at some point starting Saturday afternoon and into Sunday.
• Rain amounts won’t be terribly heinous. (Not a ton of moisture to work with, and the best forcing will remain offshore, but some isolated spots could see up to a half-inch of rain.)
• It’ll get breezy at and near the coast Saturday evening into Sunday as low pressure develops and treks northeast.

What’s less clear:

• When rain starts and ends. The best chances of rain appear to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as low pressure develops and tracks up the coast offshore. The GFS (American global model) still wants to take the low way offshore, while other members of the suite such as the ECMWF (the vaunted “Euro”) and NAM (North American Mesoscale, a high-resolution model) keep the low much closer to the coast. I’m favoring the solution presented by the ECMWF and NAM as the GFS appears to be quite the outlier. In this scenario, the heaviest rain looks to fall late Saturday into early Sunday. Then, there is some disagreement about how much moisture is available to the upper-level disturbance which is responsible for all this. The 00z run of the ECMWF, along with the 06z run of the NAM, were both fairly aggressive about clearing out deep-layer moisture once the coastal low passed to the northeast, which would have shut off the majority of the rain in the early afternoon. However, prior runs were much wetter, and it looks like the 06z interim run of the ECMWF is beginning to trend back to a more showery solution for Sunday afternoon.
• How warm temperatures get. This isn’t the biggest boom-or-bust scenario, but a well-placed shower could be the difference between a period of upper 50s and mid-60s, so be prepared for this range of possibilities in the afternoon.

My advice: Have a Plan B for outdoor activities. It won’t rain all day Saturday or Sunday, but the risk of passing showers will be with us, so be prepared. Also, keep up to date with forecast updates as we get into the weekend as small details can make a big difference. Regardless, enjoy the warm respite from the Arctic air we’ve been in over the last few days.