Tropical update: Jerry’s recurvature is likely, but more waves to watch

/ September 19, 2019 at 8:39 AM

So let’s start with the good stuff: Model agreement has continued to improve regarding Tropical Storm Jerry’s future path, and that path is toward recurvature way from the US East Coast this weekend. (Bermuda, which just took a pretty good whooping from Humberto, will want to watch Jerry with wary eyes.) But, for Charleston, Jerry increasingly looks like a storm about nothing. It is forecast to become a hurricane later today, but will encounter hostile upper-air conditions that will limit its further development, according to the Hurricane Center. This should preclude the stronger solutions and a more southerly track as seen in a few of the global guidance members that we discussed yesterday.

There are more waves to watch, though. One wave, south of Hispaniola, is going to have a hard time getting going thanks to its expected interaction with the island as it moves northwest. NHC gives it 10% odds to develop in the next five days.

A second wave well southeast of Jerry has a chance to develop as it takes a more southerly track into the Windward Islands over the next few days. NHC has this at 30% odds to develop in the next five days. The latitude of this wave will indicate a system for us to watch if it does indeed develop.

A third wave, which has yet to come off the coast of Africa, has a 20% chance of development in the next five days as it hits the waters. Plenty of time to watch, but its expected latitude, between 5 and 10° N, also means it’s something to keep an eye on for now.

Bottom line

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