We have one more rain-free and rather warm day coming up on Thursday. Expect highs to once again top out in the mid-90s under partly cloudy skies, with some humidity mixing in to drive heat indices to the upper 90s to around 100°. It’s worth noting that the NWS forecast high of 95°, if it did indeed come to pass, would tie the daily high temperature record set in 1941 and then tied in 1947 and 2019. (For reference, last year’s high on September 7 topped out a degree shy of the record.) Ridging will weaken throughout the day, but much of us should expect to get the day in rain-free. I don’t know that I’d totally rule out a shower or storm closer to I-95, though.

Friday & the weekend: Back to storms

The first solid storm chances since Idalia return for Friday and the weekend as a front gets close but stalls out. A piece of energy moving out of the Midwest will get cut off over the Southeast Friday into Saturday, keeping conditions generally favorable for showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially once a little daytime heating gets going. Friday will run back into the low 90s with generally scattered storm coverage, while Saturday should feature the most widespread wet weather and highs only in the mid-80s as a result. Temperatures come back up a little bit on Sunday as the cutoff low weakens and lifts away, but we should still see a scattering of showers and thunderstorms thanks to the nearby front.

Tropics: Lee becomes a hurricane

Lee has become a hurricane as of the 5PM advisory on Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 75 MPH. It is forecast to become a powerful Category 4 storm by this weekend, with winds perhaps peaking around 150 MPH by Sunday as it moves west-northwest. The center of the storm should stay north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, though a more southerly track remains within the margin of error. However, given the expected strength of the storm, that is unlikely.

As we head into Sunday and Monday, we should start to see the storm’s forward speed let up a little bit as steering currents weaken. From there, the general consensus in guidance is to turn the storm to the north and generally parallel to the East Coast, staying off our shores but kicking up plenty of surf. This timing remains very far out, though — it may be mid-next week before we start to see that turn — and things can certainly change. For now, though, Lee represents no imminent threat to the Lowcountry. Keep an eye on forecast updates periodically to track Lee’s progress, but we are far from the point where we would need to become more concerned with this storm (and, if current guidance holds true, we won’t be getting to that point with Lee).

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