If you’ve not been a fan of this uncharacteristically warm weather that’s permeated the better part of the last week and a half around here, some good news: changes are coming in a hurry. However, that’s going to mean another round of storms with the potential for a couple of those to be on the strong side.

After some much-needed rain (and some lesser-needed hail) on Thursday, we head into New Year’s Eve with continued warm temperatures as a frontal boundary, which has caused some complications for the weather in the southeastern US this week, remains stalled well to our north. A shower or two can’t totally be ruled out Friday, but much of us should remain dry to close out 2021, and fireworks displays should be unimpeded as a result. Temperatures will once again head well into the 70s in the afternoon, and could challenge the record high of 78° last set in 1996.

New Year’s Day will remain quite warm with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs should stay just shy of the record of 80° we set on January 1, 2021, but they will certainly get close as we remain within the warm sector. Saturday should remain rain-free for the Lowcountry with no appreciable disturbances to speak of to instigate shower activity in our neck of the woods.

The pattern will finally begin to change on Sunday as a potent upper-level system dislodges the stalled front and finally pushes it eastward. Expect showers and even a few thunderstorms ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be on the strong side given good upper-level support and probably just enough instability. Highs top out in the mid-70s owing to cloud cover and rain chances. There’s still questions on when the front ultimately gets through, but all indications are that the first Monday of 2022 will be significantly cooler than we’ve experienced in the past couple weeks! Hang in there, cool weather fans — almost there.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage later this afternoon and early evening as the air becomes warmer and more unstable. Highs should reach the low 80s, and may challenge the record of 82° set in 2015.

Given plentiful wind shear and the unusual amount of instability available in late December, there will be a risk for a few storms to turn strong to severe, particularly away from the immediate coast. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern, but a storm or two could rotate and produce a brief tornado as well. A widespread severe weather outbreak is not likely, but you’ll want to stay close to trusted and reliable sources of weather information throughout the afternoon and evening in case watches and warnings are required.

Our blowtorchy end to 2021 continues on Thursday despite increased cloud cover and even the specter of a few showers moving into the area. Highs could once again get close to the 80° mark in the afternoon. Thursday’s record high of 82° will probably stay safe, but it’ll be close.

Some showers look to move into the area in the mid-afternoon hours and persist through early evening as a front gets close to the area (but doesn’t get through). There’s a chance that we could even see some rumbles of thunder and brief periods of heavy rainfall if the convection-allowing models are sniffing things out correctly. The risk for severe weather appears extremely low, but we’ll need to keep an eye on how things evolve to our northwest. All that being said, keep rain gear handy if you’ve got outdoor plans tomorrow afternoon, but forget about any winter clothing until Monday.

2021 is going to close out on a very warm note for the Lowcountry. At the surface, subtropical high pressure will hold firm while the flow aloft continues in a zonal pattern, resulting in an inability to get any fronts through here until the first of the year.

We’ll have at least one or two more opportunities to break record highs before 2021 is all said and done. Wednesday should feature a little less cloud cover, allowing temperatures to challenge the record high of 79° set in 2015. Despite the possibility of some scattered showers Thursday as an upper disturbance ripples by, temperatures should still warm into the upper 70s. (This will fall short of the record of 82°, though, set in 2015.) Partly to mostly cloudy skies return Friday with highs in the upper 70s once again getting close to the record of 78° set in 1996. Indeed, it would be a fitting end to a year that started with a record high — 80° on New Year’s Day.

Atlantic high pressure will keep its hold across the area, and as a result, we’ll stay quite warm continuing into Tuesday. Cloud cover will act as a bit of a governor on just how warm we get, but we should expect another day of upper 70s across much of the area. It won’t be record heat, though: the record high for Tuesday is 82°, last set in 2015, which appears safe (unlike today’s record high of 78°, which we tied).

Cooler weather is still several days away, but it does look like we’ll begin to see things cool off as we kick off the first work week of 2022. Stay tuned…

We head into Christmas weekend with mostly quiet weather on tap as high pressure remains in command. After another chilly start Friday morning, we will warm into the upper 60s for the afternoon, some 10°+ warmer than what many spots experienced today.

No impediments to sleigh aviation are expected overnight Friday into Christmas morning, which is good news all around. Temperatures will bottom out about 10° warmer on Christmas morning than we will see on Friday in the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s near the coast. Highs in the low 70s will be common on Christmas Day as our warming trend continues, and we turn even warmer on Sunday as highs top out in the mid-70s after starting the day with lows that will run closer to normal highs for this point in the year.

Overall, though, no weather worries for this holiday weekend. Enjoy, be safe, and if you’re celebrating, have a very merry Christmas!

A reinforcing cold front will drop through the area tonight, bringing us mostly clear skies overnight and another round of cool air that should help temperatures drop to near freezing in the metro area, and likely right at freezing inland. (We’ll stay a little warmer at the coast.) Make sure pets and plants are in a warm, protected place tonight.

After Thursday, temperatures will warm back into the 60s for Friday and the low 70s for Christmas. We’ll keep fair weather in the forecast through early next week with continued warmer-than-normal temperatures as we approach the end of 2021.

For as cruddy as Tuesday was, Wednesday looks significantly nicer. We’ll keep a late-December feel to the air with highs only getting to about 60° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies as high pressure builds in from the west. This will begin another rain-free stretch for our area into early next week. High pressure moves to our north and shifts winds around to the northeast for Thursday, keeping us in the 50s despite almost full sunshine. After high pressure moves offshore Friday, we’ll warm up into the 70s for a few days starting on Christmas Day. All in all, looking good for any last-minute gift acquisition.

Get ready for an unsettled and chilly Tuesday with rain and breezy northeast winds for much of the day. Rain could start as early as 1-2am, but will peak during the day with up to 1-1.5” possible in spots as low pressure moves northeastward parallel to the coast.

Chilly high pressure will remain wedged into the area through tomorrow, and the interaction between it and the low pressure system will help kick up northeasterly winds, especially at the coast. We could even see some minor salt water flooding with the 9:02am high tide as the wind could push the tidal anomaly close to 7’.

Elsewhere, this wind will make temperatures feel even cooler than they already will be, with wind chills in the 30s possible well into mid-morning. Winds notwithstanding, the forecast high of 51° may very well be optimistic especially given rain falling into the wedge, helping to reinforce the cold air dam across the area.

The good news is that our weather improves beginning Wednesday, and we’ll be on our way to a warming trend with much more sunshine heading into and beyond Christmas.